Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

Rebound effects caused by the improvement of vehicle energy efficiency: An analysis based on a SP-off-RP survey

This study provide a straightforward way of examining the rebound effects of switching to more fuel efficient technologies, as well as determining the distribution of the effects in the household sector, including both the residential and transport sectors. A SP-off-RP survey conducted in Japan in 2012 asked people to state their preference for the reallocation behaviors after informing them of their annual operating cost saving resulting from the vehicle efficiency improvement. Coupled who save money from relocation are more likely to spend this either on housing features or transport; supporting the idea of rebound effects, although not only limited to within the transport sector. Regarding the distribution of rebound effects, domestic appliances are more likely to be affected than vehicles.     

Workshop report - Social inclusion

The topic of social inclusion is now maturing in the Thredbo conference series, being viewed as an important consideration in many aspects of land transport, the benefits extending beyond the socially excluded targeted population. The social inclusion workshop included presentations on new empirical evidence on the value of providing those at risk of social exclusion with mobility options, and how this links to improvements in personal wellbeing, often through mediating influences such as social capital. Work was presented on the role of transport services specifically targeted to those at risk of exclusion, particularly taxi services and school bus services, as well as how to modify fare structures to maximise inclusion in an efficient, mature transport system. The value of Universal Design principles to groups both at risk of being excluded as well as the current travelling public, was shown. The workshop affirmed the importance of including these wider benefits of inclusion in cost-benefit evaluations of transport. The issue of how best to move knowledge into strategic and operational policy, and the transferability of both knowledge and policy between different countries and settings, was discussed. This paper concludes with suggestions arising from the workshop in relation to policy and research, as well as recommendations for Thredbo 12.     

The impact of the application of new technology on public transport service provision and the passenger experience: A focus on implementation in Australia

The emergence of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) has been recognised with many initiatives during the last 20 years. In Europe, the “ITS Action Plan” identifies a number of applications as key elements contributing to the efficient co-ordination of the overall transport chain. The context and experience surrounding the recent widespread development of technological tools and ICT platforms to support the emergence of ITS are notable for the way in which they permeate the transport and logistics chain. But a key question remains: to what extent is the public transport sector able to exploit the wider benefits of ITS?     

分析与对策研究佛山市禅城区公交TC改革

随着我国城市化进程的加快,城市交通需求量急剧增长,城市交通问题日趋严重。本文主要从公交线网布局、公交车拥有量、公交客运量、公交出行者特征、公交客流空间分布等方面入手,通过大量实地调查,并参阅国内外城市公共交通建设的先进经验,对南通市目前公共交通状况和存在的主要问题进行深刻的剖析,在此基础上提出南通市公共交通科学和谐发展的建议和改进措施。     

城市多模式公交网络出行时间可靠性模型研究

随着城市的发展,快速轨道交通和快速公交系统逐渐融入到常规公交系统中,构成了复杂的多模式公交网络,在此公交网络环境下乘客公交出行时间的稳定可靠程度直接影响到公交系统的服务性能,因此,本文以常规公交和地铁组成的典型多模式公交网络为研究对象,利用状态增广技术,建立了换乘约束条件下的出行时间可靠性模型,从而为评价和改善多模式公交网络服务性能提供决策支持。     

印度应对城市机动化策略

为应对快速的城市机动化进程及其带来的负面影响,印度政府早期采取诸如修建立交桥和拓宽道路等办法,结果却导致了更多的机动车数量增加和更严重的交通拥堵。为此,印度政府实施了＂国家城市交通政策＂,重点投资公共交通和非机动交通方式;同时还制定了＂国家城市更新计划＂,以此建立鼓励地方政府执行国家政策的激励机制,提高对城市基础设施的投资水平。这些创新政策的实施,推动了一系列公共交通项目的发展,也促进了城市内部交通体制改革和城市综合交通发展规划的制定。     

区域综合客货运交通运输规划研究——以温州为例

在区域综合交通规划研究中,客运交通和货运交通由于其不同的交通特性,以同样的方法和标准进行交通量分析是不合理也是不科学的。为此,从客货运交通的不同特性出发,对同时存在客货运交通的区域综合交通网络规划进行分析研究,提出了区域综合交通网络规划研究方法,并应用于实际的规划项目中。对我国区域综合交通网络规划研究具有一定的借鉴意义。     

城市交通子系统期分初探——以成都市为例

城市交通运输系统是城市社会经济大系统的一个复杂子系统,是现代城市的动脉和各行各业的纽带。本文在城市交通系统特点的基础上,以成都市为例,利用空间层次结构进行子系统划分,并阐述各子系统功能、系统性和系统存在价值。     

关于公交价格补贴核算办法的研究

怎样正确核算公交价格补贴长期以来一直是政府对公交进行经济扶持的一个难点。本文以一般产品价格构成为起点,结合公交营运生产的实际,对这一难点进行了较为系统的研究,提出了一个较为科学实用的公交价格补贴核算办法,并对公交营运收入和千车公里成本等重要指标定额的确定进行了详细的分析。