基于剩余寿命可靠度的地铁供电设备预防性维修研究

随着我国城市轨道交通建设的快速发展,对保障地铁车辆正常运行的供电设备的维护检修工作提出了更高的要求,当前地铁牵引供电设备的检修工作主要沿用了铁路系统定期检修的模式,该模式在一定程度上对设备的维护保养做出了积极的贡献,但也存在"维修过剩"和"维修不足"的缺陷。通过对同类设备故障信息的收集,利用最小二乘法获得设备的可靠性函数参数;通过设备剩余寿命可靠度,实现了对地铁牵引变电所内供电设备预防性维修周期的确定;通过建立全寿命周期内的成本函数模型,确定了最优预防性维修次数。结论表明,采用的基于剩余寿命可靠度的预防性维修周期确定方法可动态的调整维修周期,设备全寿命周期内的成本函数模型可直观地说明预防性维修次数的选择原因,该方法对地铁牵引供电设备的维护检修决策有一定的参考价值。     

Analyzing travel time reliability and its influential factors of emergency vehicles with generalized extreme value theory

Travel time reliability is very critical for emergency vehicle (EV) service and operation. The travel time characteristics of EVs are quite different from those of ordinary vehicles (OVs). Although EVs own highest road privilege, they may still experience unexpected delay that results in massive loss to the society. In this study, we employ the generalized extreme value (GEV) theory to measure extremely prolonged travel time and analyze the potential influential factors. First, among three GEV distributions, Weibull distributions are found to be the best distribution model according to several goodness-of-fit tests; a new reliability index is derived to measure travel time reliability. Numerical examples demonstrate the advantages of GEV-based reliability index over variance and percentile value in the applications of EV. This index will be of great practicability in the EV operation performance and reliable route choices. Second, we further investigate the potentially influential factors of EV travel time reliability. Results show that link length and left-turn traffic volume may have an adverse impact on the link reliability while more left-turn lanes may increase the travel time reliability. The influential factor study will help us understand the causes of the EV travel time delay and the differences of travel time reliability between OVs and EVs.     

中小城市高品质公交建设方案研究——以江西吉安为例

中小城市公共交通系统客流规模相对较低,一般情况下不适宜建设轨道交通、快速公交等中大运量的公交系统.在常规公交的发展过程中,通过提升公交可靠性,提高发车频率和准点率,切实提升常规公交的服务水平,是一种适合中小城市的公共交通发展提升的实施模式,有利于增加公交服务吸引力,提升公交分担率,促进中小城市的交通系统朝绿色、可持续的方向发展,具有较好的借鉴意义.     

船体扭转强度可靠性分析

本文用随机迁移矩阵法结合改进的一阶二次矩法,计算船体扭转强度的可靠性指数,计算结果表明,该方法有较高的计算效率,所需计算机内存小,方法收敛性好。     

船舶舯剖面的可靠性优化设计

本文利用正交试验设计理论,借助改进型的一阶二次矩方法(AFOSM),把规范对船舶的总纵强度要求转化为相应的最小安全指数βmin, 然后建立可靠性优化的数学模型,由混合整数规划方法求解.某散货船算例表明:本文方法实用而可行,具有一定的经济效益.     

随机荷载作用下钢构件的疲劳可靠度研究

本文利用裂纹扩展速率的Ｐａｒｉｓ公式，将应力变程Ｓｒ和材料参数Ｃ作为随机变量，应用概率的中心极限定理推导出在随机荷载作用下构件的裂纹长度和疲劳寿命的概率密度函数。并且将构件中含有的缺陷个数及长度作为随机变量考虑，导出了构件的疲劳可靠度函数。     

Risk analysis of jackup rigs

Increasing attention has been focussed in the North Sea and elsewhere on the quantification of the risks of working in a hazardous enviroment: the offshore world. The perception of risk with respect to mobile rigs has often been vague and uninformed. This paper attempts to put the risks with respect to jackup rigs into perspective by quantifying them and comparing them to other risks.

This paper contains a few risk comparisons with fixed platforms, semi-submersibles, and drillships. Historical casualties are used in an example to show how a change intended to make an operation safer, may result in the opposite effect.

Examining risks from losses due to environmental overload, the conclusion is reached that jackups are very safe structures: there appears to be no jackup, in the timeframe examined, that has been lost because of a deficiency in the calculation methods currently in use by knowledgeable experts.     

块校验条件重发多数据报协议及其应用

针对实际应用过程中采用普通数据报通信可靠性较差的缺点，提出了块校验条件重发数据报协议。它较好地解决了ＤＣＳ通信数据传输中如何兼顾实时性与可靠性的问题并在实际应用过程中获得了满意的效果。     

基于有删失数据的失效率非参数估计方法

为解决当寿命分布的数学形式完全未知，而寿命试验数据又含有右删失数据的情况下，如何估计失效率函数的问题，推广运用密度结构估计的处理手段，根据极大似然的估计思想，在推推导出失效率函数估计的数学形式基础上，构造特殊的样条插值，给出了失效率函数的连续非参数估计。     

电子调速器可靠性设计研究

电子调速器作为柴油机电控系统的核心,要求其具有高可靠性指标.文章介绍了提高电子调速器可靠性的措施,重点阐述了基于CAN总线的双机热备份系统的可靠性设计,并以某型数字式电子调速器为对象,对冗余前后进行了可靠性分析计算.