对安全因素与安全管理的再认识

通过对安全因素、安全管理的分析和探讨,指出当前在船舶安全管理中容易被忽视的问题和解决办法,并提醒人们,在强调安全管理中人的因素的同时,决不可忽视对管理本身的剖析和诊断;而发挥每个人的主观能动性、激发每个人的智慧和积极性,有效地控制人为失误,这本身就是管理的任务所在,对安全管理有参考价值。     

Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

Fuzzy-logic-based incident detection for signalized diamond interchanges

This paper documents a fuzzy-logic-based incident detection algorithm for signalized urban diamond interchanges. The model is capable of detecting lane-blocking incidents whose effects are manifested by patterns of deterioration in traffic conditions that require adjustments in signal control strategies. As a component of a real-time traffic adaptive control system for signalized diamond interchanges, the algorithm feeds an incident report (i.e., the time, location, and severity of the incident) to the system's optimization manager, which uses that information to determine the appropriate signal control strategy.The performance of the model was studied using a simulation of an actual diamond interchange. The simulation study evaluated the model's performance in terms of detection rate, false alarm rate, and mean time to detect. The model's performance was encouraging, and the fuzzy-logic-based approach is considered promising.     

Experimental study and modeling of car-following behavior under high speed situation

To investigate the car-following behavior under high speed driving conditions, we performed a set of 11-car-platoon experiments on Hefei airport highway. The formation and growth of oscillations have been analyzed and compared with that in low speed situations. It was found that there is considerable heterogeneity for the same driver over different runs of the experiment. This intra-driver heterogeneity was quantitatively depicted by a new index and incorporated in an enhanced two-dimensional intelligent driver model. Using both the new high-speed and the previous low-speed experimental data, the new and three existing models were calibrated. Simulation results show that the enhanced model outperforms the three existing car-following models that do not take into account this intra-driver heterogeneity in reproducing the essential features of the traffic in the experiments.     

A measurement to driving situation awareness in signalized intersections

Drivers get involved easily in Left-Turn Across Path with Opposite Direction Traffic (LTAP-OD) conflicts at signalized intersection with unprotected left-turn phasing. This study classified the left-turn drivers’ performance into four types: (1) the correct acceptance of safe lags/gaps, (2) the correct rejection of dangerous lags/gaps, (3) the false rejection of safe lags/gaps and (4) the false acceptance of dangerous lags/gaps. Based on the high mounted video camera data, the logistic regression model was used to obtain the critical gaps for estimating whether the lags/gaps were safe or not. The results show that the cognition behavior of the left-turn drivers should be improved while the gap/lag is drawn near the critical gap. Furthermore, the conservative drivers are more likely to reject the larger lags/gaps and yield the right-of-way to the opposing vehicles. Simultaneously the poor response execution may cause drivers to have difficulties during the turning performance when the lags/gaps are large enough. These results could be used as the basis for a discussion of the right time to support the drivers.     

集聚经济视角下轨道交通投资对城市系统均衡的影响

随着城镇化进程加快,城市规模增加所带来的集聚效应和交通拥堵等负外部性之间的矛盾越来越突出,优化城市交通基础设施建设是缓解该矛盾的重要举措。本文同时考虑了集聚经济和交通拥挤两种外部性,构建并求解了一个两区域城市空间结构模型,分三种情况探究了轨道交通的投资引入和道路容量的优化对城市规模和城市空间结构均衡的影响。结果表明,轨道交通的投资引入能够增加城市人口规模和社会福利,使城市结构更加紧凑。但是,随着集聚经济水平的提高,城市规划者应逐步完善公交配套设施,以降低公交拥挤成本,提高公交出行分担率;还应制定相应的福利政策,避免由于个体效用下降而导致人口流出。     

基于自适应神经模糊推理的交通状态判别方法

文章针对交通状态具有模糊性和主观性的特点,建立能够真实反映人对交通拥塞程度感觉的自适应-神经模糊推理系统,使具有变化连续的交通流参数模糊化处理,实现了道路交通状态的准确、快速辨别。     

汽车发动机排气门辅助制动系统试验分析

文章介绍了排气门辅助制动系统的构造及其工作原理,通过平板式制动试验台试验与整车道路试验,验证了排气门辅助制动系统对汽车运行的安全性、经济性和驾乘舒适性都有着显著的提高。     

基于PHA-LEC-SCL法公路隧道施工安全评价研究

为了制定科学的公路隧道施工安全评价的基本模式,针对公路隧道施工的危险、有害因素的危害程度及特殊工艺,将公路隧道施工系统分为隧道开挖、爆破、施工用电、施工通风、出碴与洞内运输、支护衬砌等6个主要子系统.运用预先危险性分析法(PHA)对公路隧道施工的危险、危害因素进行辨识和定性分析,结合作业条件危险性评价法(LEC)对公路隧道施工系统中各子系统进行危险性评价,定量分析计算PHA中的子系统各个危险因素的危险等级,并采用安全检查表(SCL)对公路隧道施工现场进行安全综合评价,建立了安全评价方法之间的内在联系.PHA-LEC-SCL法确立了公路隧道施工安全评价的基本模式.