基于层次分析法的区间估计的车站能力查定误差因子分析研究

本文归纳总结了车站能力查定计算过程中存在的多种影响因素,深入分析了其产生原因和不可避免性。然后利用层次分析法的区间估计方法计算得出各种误差因子对计算结果的影响权重大小,并对比不同误差因子的权重区间,筛选出强误差因子,剔除弱误差因子,为精确计算车站能力值提供依据。     

发动机系统可靠性分析与评估

针对发动机试验昂贵以及试验条件无法真实再现发动机使用环境的情况,提出利用“三包”信息作为评估发动机使用可靠性的数据源。以发动机完整数据服从的NHPP模型为基础,结合“三包”信息普遍存在的删失现象,提出新模型;该模型既适用于完整数据,也适用于删失数据。实例证明,利用该模型计算的参数与实际统计结果的误差小于2%,最后评估得到发动机的可靠性水平。     

水下目标深度测量误差源分析

首先研究了在深海环境下,采用基于三阵元垂直线列阵的水声探测系统进行水下目标深度测量的基本原理.然后从随机误差和阵元配置偏差的角度,对水下目标深度测量的误差源进行了理论分析,并推导了相关公式.此外,对于相干多途水声信道干扰给水下目标深度测量精度的影响,也作了初步的理论分析.通过仿真实验,总结出各误差源对水下目标深度测量精度影响的规律,研究结果为进一步开展水下目标深度测量研究、提高测量精度奠定了基础.     

Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.     

Measurement biases in panel data

The objective of this paper is to examine reporting errors in panel data obtained from multi-day travel diaries. A distinction is made between within and between wave biases. The former leads to an increase in under-reporting associated with the number of days the diary is kept. The latter is related to the number of waves respondents have been participating, so-called panel experience. These biases imply that observed mobility changes between waves are partly due to reporting errors: without controlling for them, changes in mobility can not be inferred from the data. An important cause of these measurement errors is the increase in the number of days on which no trips at all were reported. In addition, shorter trips and less complex chains are more susceptible to underreporting. The methodology used in this paper provides a means of dealing with these problems. Attrition is taken into account by a rather simple measure. The paper concludes with a number of suggestions for sample and survey design.     

机电一体化技术在汽车智能制造的应用分析

这些年,机电一体化技术逐渐朝着数字化和智能化的方向发展。机电一体化技术应用到汽车智能制造当中,这样能够显著缩短汽车产品的周期,而且能够减少加工误差,提高汽车产品的质量和效率。本文主要探索了机电一体化技术在汽车智能制造的应用的相关问题,从而更好地促进我国汽车产业的发展。     

隧道洞口边坡变形的多阶段递进预测研究

为及时掌握隧道洞口边坡的变形规律,保证隧道进洞过程的安全,采用小波变换剔除变形序列中的误差信息,将原始序列分解为趋势项和误差项序列,并采用PSO-LSSVM模型和ARMA模型分别对趋势项和误差项进行预测,将两者叠加即得到边坡的综合变形预测值,再利用马尔科夫链建立预测误差的修正模型,进一步提高预测精度。对预测模型进行实例分析,结果表明： sym9小波函数、启发式阈值标准、硬阈值选取标准及10层小波分解的去噪效果较优,且通过综合预测,得到边坡变形预测结果的相对误差均值为1.03%,方差值为0.042 6,预测精度和稳定性较高,验证了预测模型的有效性。     

超低频接收信号降噪研究

在建立超低频接收信号模型的基础上,对超低频接收信号误码率性能进行了分析。将小波降噪算法应用于超低频噪声处理中,通过Monte Carlo计算机仿真试验,对基于小波降噪和传统数字滤波的方法对模拟的超低频接收信号进行噪声处理,并对降噪后的误码率性能进行分析,结果表明,应用小波降噪的方法对超低频接收信号进行非线性噪声处理,比传统数字滤波的方法能带来更高的信噪比增益。     

悬臂浇注施工斜拉桥的误差控制方法

在预应力混凝土(PC)斜拉桥悬臂施工中,为了减小索力及线形误差,分析了误差原因及其控制现状,提出了模型误差及悬浇效应误差的控制方法。结合三维实体等参元和板壳单元的优点,构造了适用于复杂桥梁结构空间分析的实体退化单元,建立了离散钢筋模型。根据挂篮牵索锚固点处的变形协调条件,推导出牵索索力随混凝土浇筑的增量计算公式,建立了悬浇过程中各工况下挂篮前端标高控制的计算公式。应用结果表明:在悬浇施工过程,牵索索力控制精度达到了3%,成桥索力控制精度达到5%,悬臂端标高误差控制在1 cm内,因此,提出的控制方法可实现PC斜拉桥悬浇过程各工况下索力及线形的准确预测。