浅谈对公路工程项目成本管理的理解

结合公路工程项目管理实际,通过分析和研究项目费用的组成、预测、控制、管理,总结了对项目成本管理的理解与认识。     

How much disruption to activities could fuel shortages cause? – The British fuel crisis of September 2000

In September of 2000 the UK experienced a blockade of oil refineries in response to rising fuel prices. These protests resulted in severe fuel supply disruptions that intensified over the course of about one week. During the peak of the crisis, travel activity by car was curtailed. This paper analyzes survey data collected about two months after the crisis utilizing the recent memory of respondents as to how they would expect this sort of disruption to affect their participation in daily activities. Specifically, we focused on a variety of non-discretionary and discretionary activities and examined what factors are associated with respondents expecting disruption to those activities. Statistical models were developed to analyze how demographic factors, commute mode selection, vehicle characteristics, and various other factors can explain how individuals expect disruption to their activities. Results suggest that the majority of individuals do not expect major disruptions, although for more car-dependent individuals, disruption was expected to be substantial, especially for work-related trips. These results have implications for the potential success and benefits of an integrated transport policy.     

An analysis of the social context of children’s weekend discretionary activity participation

This paper examines the discretionary time-use of children, including the social context of children’s participations. Specifically, the paper examines participation and time investment in in-home leisure as well as five different types of out-of-home discretionary activities: (1) shopping, (2) social, (3) meals, (4) passive recreation (i.e., physically inactive recreation, such as going to the movies or a concert), and (5) active recreation (i.e., physically active recreation, such as playing tennis or running). The social context of children’s activity participation is also examined by focusing on the accompanying individuals in children’s activity engagement. The accompanying arrangement is classified into one of six categories: (1) alone, (2) with mother and no one else, (3) with father and no one else, (4) with both mother and father, and no one else, (5) with other individuals, but no parents, and (6) with other individuals and one or both parents. The utility-theoretic Multiple Discrete-Continuous Extreme Value (MDCEV) is employed to model time-use in one or more activity purpose–company type combinations. The data used in the analysis is drawn from the 2002 Child Development Supplement (CDS) to the U.S. Panel Study Income Dynamics (PSID). The results from the model can be used to examine the time-use choices of children, as well as to assess the potential impacts of urban and societal policies on children’s activity participation and time-use decisions. Our findings also emphasize the need to collect, in future travel surveys, more extensive and higher quality data capturing the intra- and inter-household interactions between individuals (including children). To our knowledge, the research in this paper is the first transportation-related study to rigorously and comprehensively analyze the social dimension of children’s activity participation.

Modeling household activity–travel interactions as parallel constrained choices

The daily activity-travel patterns of individuals often include interactions with other household members, which we observe in the form of joint activity participation and shared rides. Explicit representation of joint activity patterns is a widespread deficiency in extant travel forecasting models and remains a relatively under-developed area of travel behavior research. In this paper, we identify several spatially defined tour patterns found in weekday household survey data that describe this form of interpersonal decision-making. Using pairs of household decision makers as our subjects, we develop a structural discrete choice model that predicts the separate, parallel choices of full-day tour patterns by both persons, subject to the higher level constraint imposed by their joint selection of one of several spatial interaction patterns, one of which may be no interaction. We apply this model to the household survey data, drawing inferences from the household and person attributes that prove to be significant predictors of pattern choices, such as commitment to work schedules, auto availability, commuting distance and the presence of children in the household. Parameterization of an importance function in the models shows that in making joint activity-travel decisions significantly greater emphasis is placed on the individual utilities of workers relative to non-workers and on the utilities of women in households with very young children. The model and methods are prototypes for tour-based travel forecasting systems that seek to represent the complex interaction between household members in an integrated model structure.     

Duration of trip-making activities by men and women

The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a survival analysis for the duration of particular trip-making activities based on sex. Specifically, this study investigates the duration of those activities related to household and family support shopping, personal business, and free time and how these durations vary between men and women. It was found that there were no significant differences in the survival curves (i.e., durations) of free-time or personal business activities; this suggests that men and women spend approximately similar amounts of time on these activities, although it is not known if the activities themselves are similar (for example, banking versus getting gas). Alternatively, sex was found to be a very significant indicator of the duration of household and family support shopping activities. In the model specification, assuming all variables except sex are the same, it was found that women were 1.32 times more likely than men to spend a longer period of time in a household and family support shopping activity. Additionally, it was found that women are 1.33 times more likely than men to have a longer household and family support activity duration if the activity is nested in the journey to work trip.     

A structural equations analysis of commuters' activity and travel patterns

An exploratory analysis of commuters' activity and travel patterns was carried out using activity-based travel survey data collected in the Washington, DC metropolitan area to investigate and estimate relationships among socio-demographics, activity participation, and travel behavior. Structural equations modeling methodology was adopted to determine the structural relationships among commuters' demographics, activity patterns, trip generation, and trip chaining information. Three types of structural equations model systems were estimated: one that models relationships between travel and activity participation, another that captures trade-offs between in-home and out-of-home activity durations, and a third that models the generation of complex work trip chains. The model estimation results show that strong relationships do exist among commuters' socio-demographic characteristics, activity engagement information, and travel behavior. The finding that significant trade-offs exist between in-home and out-of-home activity participation is noteworthy in the context of in-home vs. out-of-home substitution effects. Virtually all of the results obtained in this paper corroborate earlier findings reported in the literature regarding relationships among time use, activity participation, and travel. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Street characteristics to encourage children to walk

An experiment tested whether physical disorder affected low to moderate income African–American children’s choice of street to walk on and their parents’ choice of a street for them to walk on. The experiment used an innovative desktop simulation in which 32 fourth and fifth grade African–American children and 30 parents viewed and explored pairs of virtual walk-through streets manipulated on disorder (across three contexts and two other street and sidewalk characteristics) and picked from each pair the one to walk on (child) or for the child to walk on (parent). Each participant was asked to report the reasons for the choices. The analysis revealed that children and their parents were more likely to walk (or have the child walk) on streets lower in disorder. Reported reasons for choices confirmed the importance of physical disorder in affecting walking choices. Low-cost improvements in order may make streets more desirable for recreational walking.     

Space,money, life-stage,and the allocation of time

Demographic, socioeconomic, seasonal, and scheduling factors affect the allocation of time to various activities. This paper examines those variables through exploration of the 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey, which has been inverted to track activity duration. Two key issues are considered. First, how much can activity duration and frequency explain travel duration? The analysis shows activity duration has positive and significant effects on travel duration, supporting recent arguments in favor of activity based models. Second, which recent trend is the main culprit in the rise in travel: suburbanization, rising personal incomes, or female labor force participation? This paper examines the share of time within a 24-hour budget allocated to several primary activities: home, work, shop, and other. The data suggest that income and location have modest effects on time allocation compared with the loss of discretionary time due to working.

     

Activity settings and travel behaviour: A social contact perspective

Using time-use data from Canada, Norway, and Sweden, this study briefly outlines the essence of the activity setting approach and illustrates one aspect of its usefulness by exploring the impact of social contact on travel behaviour. The activity system approach views behaviour in context. Activity settings are generic components of the activity system and studying them using time-use diaries can provide major insights into travel behaviour. Focusing on social contact, this paper characterizes the social environment in terms of social circle (interaction partners) and social space (location). The analysis shows that there are clear differences in the levels of social interaction across various groups, including those who work at home. The 1992 Canadian data showed people working at the workplace spend relatively more time with others, about 50% of total time awake. Working at home reduced the time with others to a low of 15.7%. when people worked at home the family benefited, almost doubling the time spent with them compared to those working at the workplace. Persons working at home only spend the most time alone. There is a tendency for persons with low social interaction to travel more. It is argued that individual need, or want, social contact and if they cannot find it at the workplace they will seek it elsewhere thus generating travel. Whether this is the result of need or opportunity is of minor relevance, what it does suggest is that working in isolation at home will not necessarily diminish travel but rather may simply change its purpose. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于CRISP-DM的交通大数据分析方法及实践——以重庆市手机信令数据和RFID数据为例

随着交通大数据研究及应用日益广泛,其中存在的问题也越来越明显。很多分析结论存在概念模糊、数据质量不确定、分析方法不清晰等问题,导致分析结果经不起推敲,也缺乏可比性。究其主要原因是未能形成科学的大数据分析方法和统一的分析标准。提出基于CRISP-DM的交通大数据分析方法,包括目标要求、数据理解、数据准备、数据建模、模型验证、工程化应用(部署)6个阶段。结合重庆市交通大数据平台建设实践,以手机信令数据和车辆RFID数据为例,详细阐述数据理解、数据建模和模型验证三个重要步骤的具体做法,探索如何实现交通大数据分析的标准化、指标化和透明化。