Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour

Three weather sensitive models are used to explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data are restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of selecting among five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels.     

Adapting without Retreating: Responses to Shoreline Change on an Inlet-Associated Coastal Beach

Coastal barrier systems around the world are experiencing higher rates of flooding and shoreline erosion. Property owners on barriers have made significant financial investments in physical protections that shield their nearby properties from these hazards, constituting a type of adaptation to shoreline change. Factors that contribute to adaptation on Plum Island, a developed beach and dune system on the North Shore of Massachusetts, are investigated here. Plum Island experiences patterns of shoreline change that may be representative of many inlet-associated beaches, encompassing an equivocal and dynamically shifting mix of erosion and accretion. In the face of episodic floods and fleeting erosive events, and driven by a combination of strong northeast storms and cycles of erosion and accretion, the value of the average Plum Island residence increases by 34% for properties on the oceanfront where protection comprises a publicly constructed soft structure. Even in the face of state policies that ostensibly discourage physical protection as a means of adaptation, coastal communities face significant political and financial pressures to maintain existing protective structures or to allow contiguous groups of property owners to build new ones through collective action. These factors mitigate against adapting to shoreline change by retreating from the coast, thereby potentially increasing the adverse effects of coastal hazards.     

Assessing the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk using microscopic data and surrogate safety measures

Due to the difficulty of obtaining accurate real-time visibility and vehicle based traffic data at the same time, there are only few research studies that addressed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic crash risk. This research was conducted based on a new visibility detection system by mounting visibility sensor arrays combined with adaptive learning modules to provide more accurate visibility detections. The vehicle-based detector, Wavetronix SmartSensor HD, was installed at the same place to collect traffic data. Reduced visibility due to fog were selected and analyzed by comparing them with clear cases to identify the differences based on several surrogate measures of safety under different visibility classes. Moreover, vehicles were divided into different types and the vehicles in different lanes were compared in order to identify whether the impact of reduced visibility due to fog on traffic crash risk varies depending on vehicle types and lanes. Log-Inverse Gaussian regression modeling was then applied to explore the relationship between time to collision and visibility together with other traffic parameters. Based on the accurate visibility and traffic data collected by the new visibility and traffic detection system, it was concluded that reduced visibility would significantly increase the traffic crash risk especially rear-end crashes and the impact on crash risk was different for different vehicle types and for different lanes. The results would be helpful to understand the change in traffic crash risk and crash contributing factors under fog conditions. We suggest implementing the algorithms in real-time and augmenting it with ITS measures such as VSL and DMS to reduce crash risk.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

高速船尾部喷水推进局部振动分析

针对高速船尾部采用喷水推进装置的局部振动问题,建立了船体尾部包含喷水推进泵的有限元模型。考虑附连水质量的影响,将船体尾部离散成甲板,底板,喷水推进泵,尾板等局部结构,采用规范经验公式估算以及有限元分析的方法分别对各局部结构的板、板格、板架进行固有频率计算,将其结果与轴频和叶频激励频率进行储备频率校核,判断尾部采用喷水推进装置在振动问题上是否满足规范标准,并为下一步的船体设计提供参考。     

振华启东船厂产能升级布局规划

振华启东船厂前身为成立于2007年的道达船厂,针对厂区内各功能模块之间的能力匹配问题凸显、部分设施破损、部分设施严重制约厂区生产能力的问题,通过厂区现状平面布局、工艺流程系统梳理,根据企业发展定位和关键生产要素潜能制定科学合理的规划目标,以生产设施产能分析计算分析为理论支撑,提出一套各区域产能相匹配且适应未来规模化、精益化、规范化、安全化发展的产能升级布局规划方案,达到各功能模块布局合理、生产能力匹配、生产工艺流畅、生产设施规范的目的。针对既有港区的产能升级规划,采用以定量计算为支撑的规划方法,可供类似工程参考与借鉴。     

整治建筑物周边局部冲刷深度计算

针对现有局部冲刷深度经验公式多、适用范围小、计算结果与实际出入较大的问题,从冲刷机理上推导出通用的局部冲刷公式,并根据实际情况进行修正和确定相关参数。结果表明,整治建筑物周边局部冲刷深度主要与工前水深、工程前后流速变幅、水流紊动强度、流量调整情况等有关;冲刷公式中参数k、λ、n的取值对计算结果影响较大;修正后的公式与规范相比具有一定优势。     

考虑残余应力效应的深潜器耐压壳体疲劳研究

本文考虑焊接残余应力的影响,给出包含裂纹萌生和裂纹扩展全过程的载人深潜器耐压球壳疲劳寿命预报方法,分别基于局部应力-应变法和能计及负应力比效应的裂纹扩展单一曲线模型预报了耐压球壳的工艺疲劳寿命和使用疲劳寿命,研究焊接残余应力大小对球壳疲劳寿命的影响。结果表明,忽略拉伸残余应力的影响将导致疲劳寿命预测结果偏于危险;耐压球壳整体受压时,拉伸残余应力使得球壳局部区域承受拉-压循环载荷,计算使用疲劳寿命过程中须考虑其影响;降低拉伸残余应力可有效提高耐压球壳的疲劳寿命。     

汽油机燃烧室紧凑性评价参数分析

对燃烧室紧凑性评价参数面容比A/V值进行了分析,讨论了其局限性。提出了新的内燃机燃烧室紧凑性的衡量方法,即面面比S/A,在等容积条件下,进行了各种燃烧室紧凑性及火焰传播距离的比较。     

西南公路出海(辅助)通道物流运作模式及政策研究

为了优化资源,降低物流成本,提高物流运输可靠度和速度,需要建立恰当的西南公路出海(辅助)通道的物流运作模式,以充分发挥出西南公路出海(辅助)通道基础建设的效益.