灰色模型在原油管道蜡沉积速率预测中的应用

为了对原油管道内蜡沉积速率进行准确预测,基于灰色GM(1,N)模型理论和建模思路,综合考虑了管壁处剪切应力、管壁处温度梯度、管壁处蜡分子浓度梯度和原油的动力黏度4个影响因素,建立了 GM(1,5)蜡沉积速率模型,并与黄启玉蜡沉积模型进行模型精度对比.结果表明:GM(1,5)蜡沉积速率模型的平均相对误差为2.955 5％...     

基于事故综合强度的公交事故严重程度分析

为更加精确地对公交事故严重程度进行分类以探究其影响因素，本文提出一种基于事故综合强度+K-means的公交事故严重程度分类方法，并基于此分类方法建立公交事故严重程度影响因素分析模型。首先，针对传统事故严重程度分类中的定性分类方法，引入事故综合强度法定量计算公交事故严重程度，并运用K-means聚类算法对事故严重程度进行聚类。其次，选取环境、驾驶员、道路车辆和事故特征这 4 方面的 17 个因素作为自变量，分别将事故综合强度+K-means分类法和传统分类法的结果作为因变量，运用有序Logit模型分析公交车事故严重程度，同时利用平均边际效应量化各显著因素的影响程度，以佛山市2021年156起公交车事故数据为例进行分析。结果表明，基于事故综合强度+K-means分类法的有序Logit模型具有更好的拟合优度。高峰期、换道、超速、加速度过大、注意力分散和进出站会增大发生极严重公交车事故的概率，增大的概率分别为11.57%、29.06%、23.98%、17.13%、30.97%和12.27%；白天和晴天会减小发生极严重公交车事故的概率，减少的概率分别为22.31%和12.34%。     

Stress concentration factors in tubular T/Y-connections reinforced with FRP under in-plane bending load

Stress concentration factors (SCFs) in steel tubular T/Y-connections strengthened with fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) are investigated. In the first step, a finite element (FE) model was developed and verified using data of several available experimental tests and empirical formulas. After that, 134 FE models of T/Y-joints with and without FRP were created and analyzed under in-plane bending (IPB) load. In the FE models, the contact between the FRP layers and the members (chord, brace, and weld) was defined. Results showed that the increase of the FRP layer number leads to the notable decrease of the SCFs. Also, the SCFs of a T/Y-joint reinforced with FRP can be down to 40% of the SCF of the corresponding unreinforced joint. Finally, FE results were used to propose two parametric formulas for determining the SCFs in the T/Y-joints strengthened with FRP subjected to IPB load. The proposed formulas were checked according to the UK Department of Energy acceptance criteria.     

基于网联数据的电动车快速充电影响因素分析

基于北京市私家电动汽车网联数据，按照充电行为类型提取车辆行程，并对行程中影响快速充电行为的潜在因素进行细致分析；基于Logistic回归模型进行显著性影响因素识别，结果表明，电动汽车续航里程、出行距离、出行时间等因素显著影响电动汽车的快速充电行为；最后，基于显著影响因素建立模型，对私家电动汽车快速充电行为进行预测，预测结果表明，预测模型具有较好的预测效果和可靠度.本文研究成果将有助于优化私家电动汽车的充电行为，提高充电效率.     

Accurate evaluation of fracture parameters for a surface-cracked tubular T-joint taking welding residual stress into account

An efficient numerical analysis procedure based on FEM was implemented for evaluating the effect of welding residual stress (WRS) on mixed-mode stress intensity factors (MM-SIFs) for a non-planar surface-cracked tubular T-joint with a rounded weld toe. A multi-pass welding simulation was carried out using real welding conditions by means of an effective in-house welding simulation code. A fully compatible 3D finite element mesh generation system was implemented to model non-planar perpendicular surface-cracked tubular T-joints with rounded weld toes. The adequacy of the mesh generation system was verified with the reference solutions. A fully automated mapping code was developed to assign the six components of the simulated WRS to each element face over the crack surface. A developed fracture approach was employed to accurately compute MM-SIFs resulting from WRS in which normal and shear components of WRS were considered. MM-SIFs were calculated carefully for several surface cracks with different shapes under different loading conditions. The behavior of MM-SIF solutions resulting from the combination of external load and WRS was influenced significantly by the behavior of those produced due to WRS only. In addition, the value of the computed SIFs resulting from the combination of external load and WRS was almost doubled for mode-I SIF compared to those obtained by external load only and WRS only especially near the crack end locations. The behavior of the calculated fracture parameters was also discussed.     

中国现代交通运输业效率波动性和影响因素研究 ——基于交叉效率DEA 和VAR 模型的分析

选取1978–2012 年的数据,应用交叉效率数据包络分析法(Cross-efficiency DEA)和向量自回归模型(Vector Autoregression, VAR)对中国现代交通运输业的效率波动 情况及其影响因素进行分析.研究结果表明,交通运输业的投入和产出要素之间,均存在 单向格兰杰(Granger)因果关系;交通运输业的效率波动可以划分为效率上升、高效运行 和效率下降三个阶段,总体上呈现出“先升后降”的趋势;交通运输业对人均消费、政府支 出、能源消耗和固定资产投资的冲击均表现出正向为主的响应,对劳动的冲击表现出负 向响应,而对信息的冲击则表出响应“滞后”     

基于修正延误波及树的航班延误传播研究

为了正确反映延误航班与机场随机因素之间的潜在关系,提出了1种基于贝叶斯网络的航班延误和机场随机因素分析方法.将机场随机延误因素的影响转化为时间参数.在综合考虑航班延误、航班计划的同时引入贝叶斯网络分析结果对延误波及树进行修正,在历史航班运营数据集上对修正延误波及树模型进行检验.结果表明,修正延误波及树模型提高了航班延误传播的预测精度,预测平均误差分别由修正前的11.76%和13.75%降低至3.45%和3.39%,多案例分析的准确性同时验证了修正延误波及树的普适性,丰富了航班延误传播问题的研究方法.      

阶梯地形对西昌昔格达组三维地基地震动影响

为研究西昌昔格达组阶梯地形标高突变对地震动响应规律,选取攀钢西昌钒钛钢铁新基地地基工程为背景工程.以2个地基方案为研究对象,用有限元软件构建2个三维地基模型并模拟地震动作用下模型表面3个方向地震动加速度分布.通过分析得出如下结论:阶梯地形标高突变对水平方向加速度放大系数影响甚小,而竖直方向加速度放大系数骤增,但是否随着标高突变量增大而增大,有待进一步研究;从阶梯地形角点处向内侧延伸,竖直方向加速度放大系数又减小;竖直方向加速度放大系数随着输入地震动强度增大而减小;输入地震波强度越大,标高突变引起竖直方向加速度峰值增大越显著.     

降雨条件下边坡稳定性分析及滑坡防治措施

提出降雨条件下的边坡力学模型,基于边坡受力分析,揭示静动水压力、扬压力、岩土体力学参数劣化等诸多因素共同作用使边坡稳定性安全系数降低,激发边坡失稳。提出截、排水处置措施,从而达到增加滑坡稳定性的目的。对降雨型滑坡防灾减灾技术实施具有一定借鉴作用。     

TSP超前预报技术在石塘隧道施工中应用

介绍TSP超前地质预报系统的技术特点和工作原理以及在石塘隧道现场应用情况,预报结果显示,TSP系统结合工程地质调查进行地质超前预报对隧道的安全施工具有积极意义。