How might potential future plug-in electric vehicle buyers differ from current “Pioneer” owners?

The entry of various plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) into the passenger vehicle sector provides novel opportunities to learn about the potential for future PEV markets. However, early PEV buyers (or “Pioneers”) can substantially differ from present conventional vehicle owners that have interest in purchasing PEVs in the future (or the “Potential Early Mainstream buyers”). To compare the characteristics, preferences, and motivations of Pioneers and Potential Early Mainstream buyers, we draw data from the Canadian Plug-in Electric Vehicle Study, a three-part mixed-mode survey with samples of PEV owners (n = 94) and conventional new vehicle buyers (n = 1754). We identify several significant differences in household characteristics, including income, education, and recharge access. In terms of preferences, Pioneers express extremely high valuation of PEVs and prefer pure battery electric vehicle (BEV) designs over plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) designs. In contrast, Potential Early Mainstream respondents prefer PHEVs. Both Pioneer and Potential Early Mainstream respondents are similarly cautious about controlled charging programs, but Pioneers place five times as much value on using electricity generated from renewable sources than the Potential Early Mainstream. Pioneers also tend to have different motivations, including significantly higher levels of environmental concern, and higher engagement in environment- and technology-oriented lifestyles. Policymakers, automakers, and electric utilities that anticipate a transition to electric mobility ought to consider how potential future PEV buyers may differ in their vehicle preferences, usage and motivations relative to current PEV owners.     

Spatial transferability assessment of a composite walkability index: The Pedestrian Index of the Environment (PIE)

This paper analyzes the transferability of a composite walkability index, the Pedestrian Index of the Environment (PIE), to the Greater Montréal Area (GMA). The PIE was developed in Portland, Oregon, and is based on proprietary data. It combines six urban form variables into a score ranging from 20 to 100. The measure introduces several methodological refinements which have not been applied concurrently in previous efforts: a wide coverage of the different dimensions of the urban form, together with the use of a distance-based decay function and modelling-based weighing of the variables.This measure is applied to the GMA using local data in order to evaluate the feasibility of its transfer (the possibility of locally replicating the measure). It is then included in a series of mode choice models to assess its transferability (the capacity of the measure to describe walkability and predict mode choice in another urban area). The models, segmented by trip distance or trip purpose, are estimated and validated against observed trip data from the 2013 Origin-Destination survey.Significant positive correlation is found between the PIE and the choice of walking for short trips, for all purposes as well as for four specific trip purposes. The inclusion of the PIE also improves the accuracy of the modelling process as well as the prediction of the choice of walking for short trips. The PIE can therefore be used in the GMA, and potentially in other metropolitan areas, to improve the modelling of travel behavior for short trips.     

Traffic guidance–perimeter control coupled method for the congestion in a macro network

Macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) describes the macro relationship between a network vehicle density and a network space mean flow, without requiring the mastery of complex origin to destination data. Thus, MFD provides an opportunity for the macro control of urban road network. However, most of the existing MFD control methods ignore the active role of traffic guidance in solving congestion problems. This study presents a traffic guidance–perimeter control coupled (TGPCC) method to improve the performance of macroscopic traffic networks. The method considers the optimal cumulative volume of a network as the goal and establishes a programming function according to the network equilibrium rule of traffic flow amongst multiple MFD sub-regions, which regards the minimum delay of network, as the objective. The Logit model for the compliance rate of driver route guidance is established by the stated preference survey. Moreover, the perimeter control (PC) method is proposed for adjusting the phase split of intersections. Finally, three schemes, namely, the TGPCC, PC and the method without PC and guidance are tested on a network with four well-defined MFD sub-regions. Results show that the TGPCC addresses the issue of congestion and decreases the total delay accordingly.     

PBL剪力连接件受力性能的有限元分析

为验证有限元分析方法研究PBL剪力连接件受力性能的可行性和准确性,首先,应用ANSYS有限元软件建立了某大桥PBL剪力连接件的实体模型;其次,基于有限元模型,对影响PBL剪力连接件受力性能的混凝土强度等级、钢板开孔直径、贯穿钢筋直径、贯穿钢筋强度、是否设置贯穿钢筋等5个影响参数值进行分析;最后,将有限元计算结果与推出试验得出的数据和经验公式计算的数据进行对比分析。结果表明:在相应影响参数下,有限元计算结果与两组数据的差异均在合理的范围内;应用ANSYS对PBL剪力连接件的受力性能进行有限元分析是可行的,可以辅助推出试验和经验公式对PBL剪力连接件进行研究。     

乘客导向信息服务系统设计理念——以北京市客运枢纽为例

北京市建成并投入使用的客运枢纽在乘客导向信息服务系统标准化、精细化设计方面普遍存在不足,枢纽内外部引导信息衔接不畅,乘客信息需求与供给不匹配。基于此,针对北京南站、北京西站等9座客运枢纽开展标志调查,总结枢纽在乘客引导方面普遍存在缺乏衔接、盲目追求距离最短、缺乏统一规划等问题。进而提出乘客导向信息服务系统设计可参考的理念与方法,包括各类服务信息分级引导、设计综合信息标志、规范使用名称、优先设置客运标志而非广告等。     

机动车闯红灯行为影响因素分析

信号控制交叉口由闯红灯引起的交通事故具有较高的伤亡率。为深入了解闯红灯行为的影响因素,利用人工记录与视频观测结合的方法对上海市4个信号控制交叉口进行调查。基于流行病学影响因素研究方法选择未闯红灯行为作为对照组与闯红灯行为对比,以排除无关因素。对调查数据进行行为编码,考虑到各个交叉口的异质性,基于随机效应逻辑斯特模型在交叉口层面分析驾驶环境、驾驶人特点、车辆特征对闯红灯行为的影响。结果表明,本地驾驶人、男性驾驶人、客车更容易闯红灯,流量大会增加闯红灯的可能性;此外,是否为本地车辆、车内是否有乘客对闯红灯行为也有显著影响。     

飞行器迎面拦截导引仿真

以航母编队防空作战推演为背景,基于仿真方法对其中的航空器迎面拦截问题进行了分析研究。针对目标运动态势,限于非军事因素,要求任务单元能够在目标正前方威慑距离外与目标面对面对峙,从而达到威慑拦截效果,旨在迫使对方后退,最大限度避免火力接触,这一点与导弹击毁式拦截不同。迎面拦截分为两个部分,首先在与目标同方向运动过程中,向目标对称靠近,然后再沿圆弧路径飞行更改航向,达到与目标面对面对峙。论文设计了拦截算法,并通过仿真验证了算法的有效性。     

三跨异型连续钢箱梁动力特性改善研究

某三跨异型连续钢箱梁人行天桥在行人通过时晃动明显,经有限元分析和规范计算该桥主跨的竖向基频为2.54Hz,正好位于易发生人桥共振的2.0~3.0Hz区间内.为了改善该桥的动力特性,找到了原设计中不满足规范竖向基频的原因,并提出了在主跨钢箱梁顶板上焊接10cm高T型钢板,并作横向连接形成封闭箱室以提高箱梁有效高度的措施,通过三维有限元多方案分析,能够将该桥主跨的竖向基频提高至3.3Hz.所推荐的方案简单易行,对交通干扰小,可有效减小人行天桥的晃动,可为同类工程提供借鉴.     

基于停车行为调查的商业区停车空间组织研究

以广州市为例,对以北京路商业区为代表的传统商业区和以天河商业区为代表的现代商业区的4个停车场进行停车目的、停车步行距离、停车场类型、停车场安全、可接受停车费用5种停车特性的停车行为调查。调查结果显示：停车便利是停车者对商业停车空间组织最主要的要求,可以通过合理的诱导,提高停车空间的利用率,进而增强商场停车的便利性;应该利用合适的商场停车优惠政策,适时实施停车吸引或停车阻碍措施,更好地进行商场停车空间组织。最后借助模糊综合评价,对4个商业停车场的吸引能力进行排序,指出停车承受能力的高低将严重影响商场的竞争能力。     

打车软件使用率对出租车社会福利的影响

出租车行业的社会福利主要由出租车剩余价值与乘客剩余价值构成,为了量化打车软件这一新型电召服务模式对社会福利的影响,本文采用柯布—道格拉斯函数为出租车实载里程表达形式,得到出租车出行需求函数,然后考虑打车软件使用率对空驶里程的影响,最终构建出租车与乘客的剩余价值模型.通过成都某区域实例数据得出,当打车软件的使用率从0变化到100%,出租车剩余价值增加23%,乘客剩余价值减小6.4%,社会总福利减小3%.计算结果表明,该模型具有可行性与有效性,可为行业规划与管理中对打车软件这类新型服务模式提供引导方式,对出租车的价格调整等提供决策依据.