Bike route choice modeling using GPS data without choice sets of paths

Concerned by the nuisances of motorized travel on urban life, policy makers are faced with the challenge of making cycling a more attractive alternative for everyday transportation. Route choice models can help achieve this objective by gaining insights into the trade-offs cyclists make when choosing their routes and by allowing the effect of infrastructure improvements to be analyzed. We estimate a link-based bike route choice model from a sample of GPS observations in the city of Eugene on a network comprising over 40,000 links. The so-called recursive logit (RL) model (Fosgerau et al., 2013) does not require to sample any choice set of paths. We show the advantages of this approach in the context of prediction by focusing on two applications of the model: link flows and accessibility measures. Compared to the path-based approach which requires to generate choice sets, the RL model proves to make significant gains in computational time and to avoid paradoxical accessibility measure results discussed in previous works, e.g. Nassir et al. (2014).     

某型气垫登陆艇燃气涡轮发电机组弹性轴断裂分析

介绍了气垫登陆艇的故障现象,通过故障现象分析,对故障进行了定位,通过对故障件进行理化分析、金相组织分析、断口分析,设计图样与实物的制造符合性分析,最后采用实例建模进行了强度校核,得出某型气垫登陆艇燃气涡轮发电机组弹性轴断裂的故障模式。     

发电机组并联运行有功、无功综合调控技术

介绍了发电机组的转速、电压控制原理以及有功、无功综合调控技术的控制原理;并通过实例介绍了采用该控制技术的船舶电站监控系统。实践表明,融合有功、无功综合调控技术的电站监控系统在投入运行后,实现了任意组态下,并联机组有功、无功功率稳定的自动调整,使得多个电站机组长期并联运行更加可靠。     

人的可靠性分析方法及其在军事活动中的应用

回顾了人的可靠性分析发展的历史和现状,重点对现在已存在的人的可靠性分析方法进行了介绍分析,提出并简要介绍了两种在军事活动中适用的人的可靠性评估方法的基本原理：基于粗糙集的人的可靠性评估法和基于贝叶斯的人的可靠性评估法,最后分析了人的可靠性研究中存在的问题。     

基于偏好顺序集的非补偿式铁路旅客选择行为估计方法

精细化需求预测是铁路提高收益的重要基础.本文考虑了铁路产品属性对于旅客选择行为的影响,构建具有一定偏好顺序的产品集合来表征不同类型的旅客.在此基础上,利用客票存根及余票数据,建立预售期内旅客选择过程的极大似然函数,求解得到不同旅客类型的出现概率.首先通过仿真算例验证了模型的计算可行性,然后通过实证数据,估算了北京南至上海虹桥方向不同旅客类型在各时段的出现概率,进一步统计得到旅客在不同时段下铁路旅客buy-up行为概率及属性敏感度的变化,并提出一些可用于优化售票策略的建议.     

不完备目标信息系统中的可变精度粗糙集模型

文中以同时具有缺席型和遗漏型未知属性值的不完备目标信息系统为研究对象,根据特征关系,研究可变精度粗糙集的模型及其性质．可变精度粗糙集模型与原始的粗糙集模型不同,它是建立在集合多数包含的基础上的,因而该模型是基于特征关系的经典粗糙集模型的推广形式,而基于特征关系的经典粗糙集模型则是可变精度粗糙集模型的一种特殊表现形式．文中对新模型的主要性质作了阐述和证明,结果表明：在不完备目标信息系统中,新模型与原始的粗糙集模型相比具有更高的近似精度,可进行更为精确的度量．     

Numerical simulations of fatigue crack initiation and propagation based on re-tensile plastic zone generating load criterion for in-plane gusset welded joints

Many accidents are caused by fatigue in welded built-up steel structures, and so it is important to estimate the fatigue lives of such structures quantitatively for safety reasons. By assuming that fatigue cracks cannot grow without an accumulation of alternating tensile/compressional plastic strain, one of the authors identified an improved effective stress intensity factor range ΔK _RPG based on the re-tensile plastic zone generating (RPG) load, which represents the driving force for fatigue cracks, and suggested that ΔK _RPG should be used as the parameter to describe fatigue crack growth behavior. The “FLARP” numerical simulation code in which ΔK _RPG is implemented as the fatigue crack growth parameter, was developed in order to predict fatigue crack initiation and propagation behavior. In this paper, it is demonstrated that FLARP gives accurate estimates for fatigue life by comparing the estimated fatigue crack growth curves and S–N curves with the experimental results for in-plane gusset welded joints, which are used in many welded steel structures. Moreover, the effect of induced bending moment due to the linear misalignment in the out of plane direction on the fatigue strength of in-plane gusset welded joints is investigated through numerical simulations.     

舰船装备故障诊断特征知识获取方法研究

将粗糙集理论引入到舰船装备故障诊断特征知识获取,提出一种基于粗糙集理论的舰船装备故障诊断特征知识获取模型.该模型从包含冗余和不一致信息的原始数据出发,构建决策表,通过属性约简和属性值约简获取故障诊断的最小约简属性集和诊断规则,并建立诊断规则知识库.实例分析表明:在保持故障诊断分类结果的情况下,该方法可以提取出最能反映故障的特征,并能有效地解决舰船装备故障诊断中规则获取的知识冗余或缺失问题,从而为粗糙集在舰船装备故障诊断中的深入应用打下基础.     

Analysis of velocity fluctuations and their intermittency properties in the surf zone using empirical mode decomposition

We consider here surf zone turbulence measurements, recorded in the Eastern English Channel using a sonic anemometer. In order to characterize the intermittent properties of their fluctuations at many time scales, we analyze the experimental time series using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method. The series is decomposed into a sum of modes, each one narrow-banded, and we show that some modes are associated with the energy containing wave breaking scales, and other modes are associated with small-scale intermittent fluctuations. We use the EMD approach in association with a newly developed method based on Hilbert spectral analysis, representing the probability density function in an amplitude–frequency space. We then characterize the fluctuations in a stochastic framework using a cumulant generating function for all scales, and compare the results obtained from direct and classical structure function analysis, to EMD–Hilbert spectral analysis results, showing that the former method saturates at large scales, whereas the latter method is more precise in its scale approach. These results show the strength of the new EMD–Hilbert spectral analysis method for data presenting a strong forcing such as found in shallow water, wave dominated situations.     

基于Q参数化控制器的无刷直流电机调速系统

提出了一种新的电机调速方法,并将其应用到无刷直流电机的驱动控制中.该驱动系统的所有稳定控制器均可用一个独立的Q参数来描述,由该控制器构成的速度环不仅能消除电机脉动转矩引起的速度波动,同时对其他形式的速度干扰也能进行很好的抑制.仿真结果表明:在系统参数发生变化及存在噪声的情况下,在参考速度和负载转矩发生改变时,本文提出的控制策略都能获得鲁棒稳定性和良好的动态性能.