Assessment of policies and detection of unintended effects: Guiding principles for the consideration of methods and tools in policy-packaging

Single policies or entire policy packages are often assessed using different methods aiming at a quantification of effects as well as the detection of undesired outcomes. The knowledge of potential impacts is essential to take informed policy actions. Hence, there is a constant need for efficient assessment approaches to support policy decision-making. A broad range of such assessment methods is used in policymaking. Some of them are using quantitative data; others are characterized by qualitative information, observations or opinions. Practical experiences with transport policy prove that these methods all have their pros and cons, but none of them are able to detect the full range of effects. This leads to important questions this article deals with, such as what are the strengths and limitations of the different tools and methods for assessing impacts, and how should different approaches be integrated into the policymaking processes?We analyze the ability of assessment methods to detect different kinds of intended and unintended effects, and introduce the concepts of structurally open (mainly qualitative) and structurally closed (mainly quantitative) methods. It is argued that these concepts support making the pros and cons of the tools and methods more explicit and, thus, allow integrating the different tools and methods into the process of policy packaging. Based on a policy package example, we provide practical recommendations on how to integrate different assessment methods adequately and show that both quantitative and qualitative tools should be used in different phases of the process. The main recommendation is to alternate the application of assessment methods with structurally open methods used in the beginning and the end of the policymaking process and applying structurally closed methods in between.     

城市慢行系统规划方法研究——以厦门市同安新城及环东海域东部新城为例

为提高慢行系统规划方法对具体实践工作的指导性和操作性,研究提出基于使用者需求分析的慢行系统规划"需求引导法",用于指导宏观层面和中观层面的慢行系统规划。"需求引导法"的操作过程首先通过分析山水格局和用地结构,建立慢行系统初始方案,其次对初始方案进行需求侧要素点和供给侧要素点两方面的评价,并根据评价结果对初始方案进行多轮优化调整,从而构建宏观层面供需平衡的慢行骨架系统。中观层面根据组团功能、慢行交通集聚程度划分慢行分区,并结合路网条件供给,提出各分区的慢行发展模式。最后以厦门市为例说明"需求引导法"的操作过程。     

聚焦“专业岗位职务能力”背景下的课程改革与实践——以“建筑结构基础与钢筋算量”课程为例

建筑结构识图和钢筋算量是高职土建类专业学生的核心技能之一。通过聚焦"专业岗位职务能力",对课程重新定位,结合工作岗位任务进行教学内容选取并实施综合考核方式,使学生的知识技能更加贴合专业岗位需求,并实现学生学习热情的长效性,让学生更加适应市场需求,取得了较好的教学效果。     

Towards data-driven car-following models

Car following models have been studied with many diverse approaches for decades. Nowadays, technological advances have significantly improved our traffic data collection capabilities. Conventional car following models rely on mathematical formulas and are derived from traffic flow theory; a property that often makes them more restrictive. On the other hand, data-driven approaches are more flexible and allow the incorporation of additional information to the model; however, they may not provide as much insight into traffic flow theory as the traditional models. In this research, an innovative methodological framework based on a data-driven approach is proposed for the estimation of car-following models, suitable for incorporation into microscopic traffic simulation models. An existing technique, i.e. locally weighted regression (loess), is defined through an optimization problem and is employed in a novel way. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using data collected from a sequence of instrumented vehicles in Naples, Italy. Gipps’ model, one of the most extensively used car-following models, is calibrated against the same data and used as a reference benchmark. Optimization issues are raised in both cases. The obtained results suggest that data-driven car-following models could be a promising research direction.     

基于网络交通分配方法族谱的交通分配 一体化技术与工程应用

为满足交通规划、建设与管理等应用场景对交通分配多样化的需求，结合目前交通分配方 法族谱中的众多模型与方法，本文构建能够满足族谱中所有交通分配特征的一体化交通分配技 术框架，提出交通网络交通分配一体化技术体系，并将该体系嵌入交通分析平台软件“交运之星- TranStar”中。该技术体系包括：“模型关键参数”“交通阻抗函数”“交通网络交通分配基础模型与 快速算法”3部分模块组合的分析模型一体化；面向步行、自行车、机动车及公共交通等多模式交 通网络的分析对象一体化；针对城市土地开发，交通网络建设，交通管理控制，公共交通系统，以 及交通政策制定等应用场景一体化。选取南京市道路网络和公交网络进行实证分析。结果表 明，本文提出的交通分配一体化技术具有处理超万节点多模式交通网络的能力，对各类交通模 式、典型业务场景的分析结果可为城市交通系统规划、建设与管理提供决策支持。     

An Improved Model for Computing-Intensive Tasks on Heterogeneous Workstations

IntroductionIt is well known that many concurrent- com-puting tasks,which consume time badly,can besolved on a massive parallel system using parallelcomputing in order to acquire less execution time.Generally a massive parallel system is very expen-sive a…     

京秦高速公路沥青路面病害养护方法效果评价

在养护工程实践中以最大限度提高道路使用性能为目的，不断应用新技术、新材料、新工艺．为保证全线道路的使用功能和通行能力起到了积极的作用。     

移就的修辞方式修辞效果及翻译方法

移就是在特殊语言环境中改变词语搭配关系的一种临时迁就,是词语搭配的创造性运用。其常用的修辞方式分为移人于物、移物于人、移物于物三种。其修辞效果是能传达丰富的情感,产生出无穷的艺术张力。移就修辞格的翻译可采用直译法、位置还原法、状语化法和分译法等。     

机车—桁架桥梁耦合振动研究

建立了轮对和钢轨之间弹性联接３３个自由度的机车车辆动力学模型，采用有限元法分析计算了列车荷载作用下某铁路双线钢桁桥的动力响应。采用空间梁单元建立了桁架桥的振动方程。根据随机振动理论计算了当列车过桥时，车－桥耦合振动系统的空间动力响应，并与实测结果进行了比较，比较表明，采用弹性联接横型比密贴模型的计算结果更接近于实测值。     

葫芦口金沙江大桥的吊装施工与抗风措施

介绍了葫芦口金沙江大桥的缆索吊装施工工艺和合龙过程,另外还介绍了施工中采取的抗风措施(该桥处于季风强劲区域),可为在类似条件下建设大跨度拱桥借鉴.