Modeling traffic crash rates of road segments through a lognormal hurdle framework with flexible scale parameter

This study examines distributional characteristics of crash rates for road segments using observed accident data. The results indicate that the distribution of crash rates is mixed and right‐skewed, which motivates the consideration of non‐normal distributions. With the aid of Kolmogorov–Smirnov tests, kernel density plots, and Q–Q plots, the lognormal distribution is verified as an appropriate candidate for representing the positive domain of crash rates. Then, a lognormal hurdle model was developed and also compared with gamma and Weibull hurdle models. Further, the lognormal hurdle model was revised by allowing the scale parameter to vary with respect to explanatory variables. Such a modification enables the heterogeneous skewness of samples to be captured while enhancing the modeling flexibility. The proposed model was also compared with a Tobit model, an alternative approach that treats crash rates as censored data. Among all these models, the proposed lognormal hurdle model with flexible scale parameter presents the best modeling performance, and the analyses also reveal that several explanatory variables affect crash rates through not only the location parameter but also the scale parameter in the lognormal model. This study finally attempted to inspect crash rates through count models, and it discovered that the proposed hurdle model is superior because it is able to output the whole distribution form of crash rates, whereas the crash count model can only provide the expected value of crash rates, provided the exposure variable servers as an offset term in the link function of the mean parameter. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

客车骨架碰撞有限元建模技术分析

研究了客车骨架碰撞有限元建模技术,介绍了碰撞有限元计算模型的整体建模方法及特点,分析了模型中单元尺寸、网格密度分布、计算时间步长以及接触与摩擦等各因素对模型计算精度、计算时间以及计算规模的影响。     

人-车碰撞时行人头部撞击特点及其试验评价方法研究

通过对行人交通事故数据的统计分析,说明了人-车事故中行人头部损伤防护的重要性。介绍了EEVC法规提出的头部模块碰撞试验评价方法,并指出了其对平头微型车无法进行评价。通过建立行人与轿车及平头微型车的碰撞仿真模型,分析了该两种车型在与行人碰撞时的运动特性差异,得到了行人与平头微型车碰撞时的头部撞击特点。根据行人头部碰撞安全性评价需要．提出了结合事故统计分析及计算机仿真分析的行人头部安全性评价方法。     

汽车正面碰撞后排小体位假人伤害研究及优化

提出了一种相应的伤害优化方案,基于 C-NACP正面碰撞工况搭建碰撞分析模型,同时通过与正面 100% 重叠刚性壁障碰撞试验的 Hybrid Ⅱ 5th女性假人试验数据进行对比来验证模型的可靠性。基于对标结果进行优化设计,对比分析不同优化方案对乘员安全性的影响趋势。确定优化方案,即增加碰撞锁止锁舌、线性预紧器配置,增加座椅刚度,调整安全带限力值。与原始方案相比,在碰撞过程中后排女性假人总体得分提升84%。根据C-NCAP星级评定规程,此后排女性假人得分高于94%,成绩优秀,验证了方案的有效性,可为后排小体位假人伤害的优化研究提供参考。     

A multiple correspondence analysis of at‐fault motorcycle‐involved crashes in Alabama

According to the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in 2012, more than 4950 motorcyclists were killed in traffic accidents. Compared to passenger car occupants, mile for mile, motorcyclists are more than 26 times more at risk to dying in crashes. Due to the high fatality rate associated with motorcycle crashes, factors contributing to this type of crash must be identified in order to implement effective safety countermeasures. Given that the available datasets are large and complex, identifying the key factors contributing to crashes is a challenging task. Using multiple correspondence analysis, as an exploratory data analysis technique to determine the dataset structure, we identified the roadway/environmental, motorcycle, and motorcyclist‐related variables influencing at‐fault motorcycle‐involved crashes. This study used the latest available dataset (2009 to 2013) from the Critical Analysis Reporting Environment database to study motorcycle crashes in the state of Alabama. The most significant contributors to the frequency and severity of at‐fault motorcycle‐involved crashes were found to be light conditions, time of day, driver condition, and weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新德里RMGL项目车体耐碰撞性能研究

在AW3工况下,利用有限元模拟软件HyperMesh和Ls-Dyna对新德里RMGL项目车体进行被动安全性及耐撞性分析。以弹簧代替车钩建立一列车与另一列车的碰撞模型,运用瞬态非线性有限元碰撞仿真方法,分析两列车的碰撞过程,结果满足EN 15227中车辆的碰撞要求。     

缺口导向分级触发吸能结构研究

以轨道客车司机室端吸能结构为研究对象,提出一种基于缺口导向分级触发的吸能结构,并采用三维仿真分析方法对该吸能区结构进行优化分析。另外,对优化后的吸能区结构进行全尺寸冲击试验验证。试验结果表明,仿真分析在能量吸收、压溃行程和平台力方面的误差可保持在10%以内。     

铁路桥梁弹塑性护栏设计及 碰撞仿真研究

提出一种适用于高速铁路桥梁弹塑性护栏设计,由立柱、吸能块和横梁组成。以3个组成部分的壁厚为设计变量,以吸能量和最大峰值力为目标响应,通过数值仿真得到优化拉丁超立方试验设计的样本空间。基于最小二乘法构建关于目标响应的三阶多项式响应面模型,通过多目标遗传算法对弹塑性护栏各组成部分的壁厚进行优化设计。以多目标优化设计的"平衡解"为弹塑性护栏的壁厚尺寸,建立简化的列车-弹塑性护栏-桥梁有限元模型,通过仿真对比现有防护墙和弹塑性护栏对脱轨列车的防护性能。研究结果表明:弹塑性护栏可以降低列车的撞击力,同时可以吸收部分碰撞能量。     

基于摩托车禁行方案的多模式交通网络均衡分析

目前国内许多城市对部分区域实施“禁摩”政策，不同禁行方案的实施对交通系统中出行者方式和路径选择产生差异化影响。为定量描述摩托车禁行方案下的用户多模式出行选择行为，本文考虑私家车、常规公交及摩托车这3种模式的不同网络出行特征，构建基于摩托车禁行方案的多模式网络均衡模型。首先，设计3种模式混行下的复合交通网络，根据其不同的路段通行能力特征，以及公交车内拥挤和线路选择，分别针对禁行区域和非禁行区域，建立用户出行成本函数；然后，基于用户均衡和Logit模式划分，构建相应的数学规划模型。最后，采用基于相继平均的路径配流算法求解模型，并量化分析摩托车禁行方案下的用户出行效率和事故风险。算例 结果表明，随着禁行区域的增大，转移至私家车和常规公交的摩托车用户逐渐增加，用户总出行成本逐渐增加，出行效率和总事故风险成本逐渐降低，同时，对关键路段实施禁行方案能在较少降低用户出行效率的基础上有效降低总事故风险成本。     

Real-time crash prediction for expressway weaving segments

Weaving segments are potential recurrent bottlenecks which affect the efficiency and safety of expressways during peak hours. Meanwhile, they are one of the most complicated segments, since on- and off-ramp traffic merges, diverges and weaves in the limited space. One effective way to improve the safety of weaving segments is to study crash likelihood using real-time crash data with the objective of, identifying hazardous conditions and reducing the risk of crashes by Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) traffic control. This study presents a multilevel Bayesian logistic regression model for crashes at expressway weaving segments using crash, geometric, Microwave Vehicle Detection System (MVDS) and weather data. The results show that the mainline speed at the beginning of the weaving segments, the speed difference between the beginning and the end of weaving segment, logarithm of volume have significant impacts on the crash risk of the following 5–10 min for weaving segments. The configuration is also an important factor. Weaving segment, in which there is no need for on- or off-ramp traffic to change lane, is with high crash risk because it has more traffic interactions and higher speed differences between weaving and non-weaving traffic. Meanwhile, maximum length, which measures the distance at which weaving turbulence no longer has impact, is found to be positively related to the crash risk at the 95% confidence interval. In addition to traffic and geometric factors, wet pavement surface condition significantly increases the crash ratio by 77%. The proposed model along with ITS, e.g., ramp metering, Dynamic Message Sign (DMS), and high friction surface treatment can be used to enhance the safety of weaving segments in real-time.