Real-time crash prediction for expressway weaving segments

Weaving segments are potential recurrent bottlenecks which affect the efficiency and safety of expressways during peak hours. Meanwhile, they are one of the most complicated segments, since on- and off-ramp traffic merges, diverges and weaves in the limited space. One effective way to improve the safety of weaving segments is to study crash likelihood using real-time crash data with the objective of, identifying hazardous conditions and reducing the risk of crashes by Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) traffic control. This study presents a multilevel Bayesian logistic regression model for crashes at expressway weaving segments using crash, geometric, Microwave Vehicle Detection System (MVDS) and weather data. The results show that the mainline speed at the beginning of the weaving segments, the speed difference between the beginning and the end of weaving segment, logarithm of volume have significant impacts on the crash risk of the following 5–10 min for weaving segments. The configuration is also an important factor. Weaving segment, in which there is no need for on- or off-ramp traffic to change lane, is with high crash risk because it has more traffic interactions and higher speed differences between weaving and non-weaving traffic. Meanwhile, maximum length, which measures the distance at which weaving turbulence no longer has impact, is found to be positively related to the crash risk at the 95% confidence interval. In addition to traffic and geometric factors, wet pavement surface condition significantly increases the crash ratio by 77%. The proposed model along with ITS, e.g., ramp metering, Dynamic Message Sign (DMS), and high friction surface treatment can be used to enhance the safety of weaving segments in real-time.     

北京市公路特殊路段防撞护栏碰撞试验条件研究

现行公路规范规定护栏最高防撞能量为520 kJ,不能满足水资源保护区、水库、跨越干线铁路等特殊危险路段的安全防护需要,通过对北京市各高速公路交通流状况调查分析,对特殊路段护栏碰撞能量和碰撞试验条件进行研究,提出适合北京地区特殊防护路段护栏的碰撞试验条件为33 t重大货车以65 km/h速度、20°角碰撞护栏,碰撞能量为630 kJ,为新型高防护等级护栏的研究开发奠定基础。     

基于加速度严重指数的公路路侧危险度评估

为了定量评估二、三级公路路侧危险程度,以确定路侧护栏防护等级,并为制定安全改善方案提供依据,提出了一种基于乘员风险的路侧危险分级新方法,乘员风险指标采用加速度严重指数(Acceleration Severity Index,ASI)表征；利用软件VPG3.2和LS-DYNA971,选择5类典型路侧障碍物、2类护栏和15种路堤边坡组合,针对小客车、大客车和大货车开展了59组碰撞仿真试验,获取碰撞过程中车辆重心纵向、横向和竖向的加、减速度曲线,进而得到ASI序列样本；采用Fisher最优分割算法确定了路侧危险度合理分级数和各级所对应的ASI阈值.结果表明:5类路侧障碍物中,F形混凝土护栏端部对车辆和人员伤害最严重,其他依次为树木、突出山石、标志立柱和路侧边沟；当路堤边坡高度超过4 m且坡率陡于1∶1时,车辆坠入边坡的损伤严重度将超过碰撞二波波形梁护栏,与碰撞F形混凝土护栏相当.     

基于道路交通事故分析的汽车碰撞试验形式研究及其发展

文中介绍了道路交通事故分析对于研究汽车碰撞试验的实施框架和技术路线,并借鉴国内外在该领域的相关技术方法,阐述应该如何基于道路交通事故来完善现行的汽车碰撞试验形式.通过道路交通事故分析,一方面可以验证我国现行汽车碰撞试验体系的有效性；另一方面能够优化现行汽车碰撞试验体系中的试验形式及指标.     

儿童座椅对正面碰撞后排儿童假人伤害的影晌

随着汽车被动安全的发展,对于儿童乘员的保护日益受到重视。C-NCAP2012版中,要求在正面碰撞试验后排放置P3儿童假人．用于评价儿童约束系统。文章按照要求首先对比了各国法规中儿童假人的伤害评价方法,通过对不同车型试验数据的研究,讨论后排儿童假人伤害情况。并根据不同的因素,尤其是儿童安全座椅形式,对结果的影响进行分析。结果表明,上拉带式座椅保护效果最好;坐姿较直时对胸部伤害较小,但对头部伤害较大。该研究对于儿童假人的被动安全研究具有很强的实际意义。     

公交驾驶员违规类型同交通事故间的关联分析

公交车驾驶员违规行为是引起交通事故的重要原因之一,以往文献在研究驾驶员违规行为与事故频率之间的关系时,未能深入探究违规行为类型差异及其异质性。为了进一步揭示不 同违规行为的差异化影响并为行为管控措施提供依据,利用某市2019—2020年4532起公交违规及事故数据,将驾驶员事故频率作为研究对象,将17类违规行为及人口统计学因素作为解释变量,综合考虑数据特征及异质性分析需求,构建考虑均值与方差异质性的随机参数零膨胀泊松模型。模型分析结果表明：不同类型的违规行为对于驾驶员事故频率影响存在明显区别,当驾驶员同时存在若干特定违规行为时,事故频率明显高于其他驾驶员。具体包括：未走公交专用道等行 为次数越多,则该驾驶员事故频率越高;未系安全带、未礼让斑马线次数和及时更换失效驾照等行为的影响具有随机特征,其作用效果具有随机波动的属性;未礼让斑马线行为影响参数的均值和方差受到其他变量的影响,即当驾驶员未礼让斑马线次数和越线行驶次数均较多时,期望事故率愈高。     

Road characteristics and environment factors associated with motorcycle fatal crashes in Malaysia

This study aims to determine risk factors contributing to traffic crashes in 9,176 fatal cases involving motorcycle in Malaysia between 2010 and 2012. For this purpose, both multinomial and mixed models of motorcycle fatal crash outcome based on the number of vehicle involved are estimated. The corresponding model predicts the probability of three fatal crash outcomes: motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crash, motorcycle fatal crash involving another vehicle and motorcycle fatal crash involving two or more vehicles. Several road characteristic and environmental factors are considered including type of road in the hierarchy, location, road geometry, posted speed limit, road marking type, lighting, time of day and weather conditions during the fatal crash. The estimation results suggest that curve road sections, no road marking, smooth, rut and corrugation of road surface and wee hours, i.e. between 00.00 am to 6 am, increase the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes. As for the motorcycle fatal crashes involving multiple vehicles, factors such as expressway, primary and secondary roads, speed limit more than 70 km/h, roads with non-permissible marking, i.e. double lane line and daylight condition are found to cause an increase the probability of their occurrence. The estimation results also suggest that time of day (between 7 pm to 12 pm) has an increasing impact on the probability of motorcycle single-vehicle fatal crashes and motorcycle fatal crashes involving two or more vehicles. Whilst the multinomial logit model was found as more parsimonious, the mixed logit model is likely to capture the unobserved heterogeneity in fatal motorcycle crashes based on the number of vehicles involved due to the underreporting data with two random effect parameters including 70 km/h speed limit and double lane line road marking.     

汽车驾驶员座椅H点位置的测量

H点是指二维或三维人体模型样板中人体躯干与大腿的连接点即胯点。在汽车碰撞试验中,H点的测量是试验重要的组成部分,也是试验的基石,三维H点装置的正确使用尤为关键。车辆碰撞仿真分析采用测量假人,测量假人的坐板总成和背板总成均由塑料和金属的复合材料构成,坐垫板和靠背板在H点位置机械的铰接在一起。因此准确的测量并标记汽车H点是正确安装假人的前提,也是汽车碰撞试验数据正确度、准确度和可靠度的保证。     

滚流测试装置对汽油机进气道稳流试验的影响

采用气道稳流试验对缸内滚流进行测试和评价是广为采用并行之有效的方法,但是由于没有统一的标准,滚流测试装置结构的差异对测试结果造成了较大影响,针对此问题,着重研究了不同结构的滚流模拟缸套对稳流试验结果的影响。研究表明:缸头结构对滚流比的影响幅度接近20%;缸套高度每增加一倍缸径,滚流比的衰减幅度约为6%;滚流强度测试结果与出气口直径成反比,当出气口直径接近缸径,为0.857B时,跃升现象不再出现。     

小偏置碰撞评分原则解析及结构优化策略

中国汽车工程研究院与中国保险行业协会联合发布"中国保险汽车安全指数测评规程",其中小偏置碰撞尤为引人关注,如何提高车辆小偏置碰撞工况的等级评定降低保费是主机厂当前的首要任务。通过对小偏置碰撞工况的评分原则进行详细介绍和解析,并以试验结果为依据,研究得出车体结构对小偏置碰撞整体等级评定起决定作用,驾驶员在此工况下下肢受伤残风险最高。为研究应对小偏置碰撞的车体结构,以某款SUV车型仿真结果为基础,详细介绍小偏置碰撞工况下车体变形特点,同时结合理论分析,提出三类优化方案,并对其进行优缺点说明,这三类优化方案为车身设计提供导向作用。针对该车型选择第二类优化方案,车体结构等级评定由"较差"提升为"优秀"。