基于岩体指标和掘进参数的TBM净掘进速率预测模型

净掘进速率是TBM施工速度的主要评价指标,与围岩物理力学性质、TBM掘进参数之间存在一定相关性。文章以兰州水源地建设工程输水隧洞双护盾TBM施工为背景,基于现场实测数据,选择岩石单轴抗压强度、抗拉强度、变形模量、泊松比、岩石耐磨性CAI值等岩体指标,以及刀盘推力和刀盘转速等掘进参数,进行TBM净掘进速率与有关影响参数之间的单因素相关性分析,得到相应拟合公式;基于TBM净掘进速率与岩体指标、掘进参数之间的相关性,利用多元非线性回归方法建立了TBM净掘进速率预测模型。通过将兰州水源地建设工程输水隧洞实测TBM净掘进速率和预测结果进行对比,验证了TBM净掘进速率预测模型的合理性。研究结果表明:(1)在复杂的多种地质条件下,TBM净掘进速率与岩石单轴抗压强度、抗拉强度、变形模量、岩石耐磨性CAI值、刀盘推力以及刀盘转速呈负相关关系,与泊松比呈正相关关系;(2)干湿状态对岩石耐磨性CAI值有一定影响,饱和状态下岩石耐磨性CAI值与TBM净掘进速率之间的相关性更显著;(3)建立的多元非线性回归预测模型,预测精度较高,可为相似地质条件下TBM净掘进速率估算提供参考。     

Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew

This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.     

基于时空特性和组合深度学习的交通流参数估计

为深入挖掘交通流时空特性,提高交通流参数估计精度,基于深度学习提出一种交通流参数估计的组合方法.根据目标断面及其上游断面的交通流数据构造输入矩阵,利用卷积神经网络捕捉交通流的空间特性,使用长短期记忆和门控循环神经网络挖掘交通流的时间特性,组合3种深度学习方法所得输出,得到交通流参数估计值.采用中国安徽省合肥市和美国加州...     

双索悬索桥自振特性分析

以黄河大峡水库下游某双索悬索桥为工程背景,引入只受拉三维拉索单元,采用考虑几何非线性的子空间迭代法对其自振特性进行了分析,理论值与实测值能较好的吻合,说明了该空间非线性有限元分析方法的正确性;进而与相同跨径和结构参数的单索悬索桥的自振频率、振型进行了对比分析,结果表明双索悬索桥能有效提高桥梁一阶竖弯振动频率,为双索悬索桥结构设计理论提供了动力性能方面的依据.     

疏浚饱和密实粉土剪胀特性及其对耙齿切削阻力的影响

针对黄骅港区饱和密实粉土,通过三轴剪切试验以及原型耙齿切削试验,研究饱和密实粉土剪胀特性及其对耙齿切削阻力的影响。三轴试验结果表明,黄骅地区饱和密实粉土在剪切过程中表现为应变软化性状,偏应力峰值与围压之间基本呈线性关系。在剪切过程中,土体先剪缩后剪胀,随着围压的增大,剪缩性状体现得越来越明显,应力应变性状可划分为4个不同阶段。原型耙齿切削试验结果表明,饱和土较非饱和土切削阻力增长得更快;饱和土切削阻力最大值为非饱和土切削阻力最大值的2.7~3.3倍;对于饱和土,切削阻力达到稳定值后,其波动幅度较非饱和土要大。上述试验结果均表明,土的剪胀性对于耙齿切削阻力的影响十分显著,须采取相应的措施来降低土的剪胀性对于耙齿切削阻力的影响。     

VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation

Globalization, greenhouse gas emissions and energy concerns, emerging vehicle technologies, and improved statistical modeling capabilities make the present moment an opportune time to revisit aggregate vehicle miles traveled (VMT), energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasting for passenger transportation. Using panel data for the 48 continental states during the period 1998-2008, the authors develop simultaneous equation models for predicting VMT on different road functional classes and examine how different technological solutions and changes in fuel prices can affect passenger VMT. Moreover, a random coefficient panel data model is developed to estimate the influence of various factors (such as demographics, socioeconomic variables, fuel tax, and capacity) on the total amount of passenger VMT in the United States. To assess the influence of each significant factor on VMT, elasticities are estimated. Further, the authors investigate the effect of different policies governing fuel tax and population density on future energy consumption and GHG emissions. The presented methodology and estimation results can assist transportation planners and policy-makers in determining future energy and transportation infrastructure investment needs.     

倒运海水道整治工程斗朗—川槎大桥段实船适航试验

为验证倒运海水道整治工程是否达到整治标准的通航要求,选取斗朗—川槎大桥段作为实船试验河段,采用该航段设计船型500吨级满载船作为试航船,进行实船适航试验。测量试验河段的水深地形、表面流速流向、航标配布和水位,试验船舶沿设计航线进行上下水航行,实时测量试航船舶航行轨迹、对岸航速、舵角、漂角、船舶与河岸之间的安全距离等航行指标及航行状态,并结合通航规范及标准,对整治后航道技术参数的合理性、航标配布的合理性等进行分析评价。结果表明,本试验航段的整治效果达到了整治标准的通航要求。研究成果可为类似工程提供参考。     

张紧器的结构参数对顶张式立管动力响应的影响研究

本文针对带液压气动式张紧器的顶张式立管,综合考虑浮式平台-张紧器-立管之间的运动关系、液压气柱的张力-冲程非线性关系、立管的真实截面布置以及采油树的作用,建立更加符合工程实际的三维有限元分析模型,并通过与实验结果对比验证了该模型的正确性。基于该有限元模型,研究了张紧器的结构参数对顶张式立管动力响应的影响。结果表明:活塞和活塞杆的直径以及高压气体的初始压强对立管的动力响应影响最大;低压气体的初始压强以及液压气柱和立管之间的夹角对立管的动力响应也有重要影响;在相同的环境条件下,高压气体和低压气体的初始体积对立管的动力响应的影响较小。     

复合地层盾构机推进速度SVM预测模型研究

在复合地层盾构法隧道施工中,如何提高盾构机推进速度一直是盾构机设计、施工人员研究的重点。以长沙轨道交通1号线五一广场到营盘路隧道工程为研究背景,现场采集盾构机掘进参数,应用SVM,建立了"五营"区间复合地层盾构机推进速度的预测数学模型,并对模型进行检测,检测结果表明该预测模型对推进速度预测的平均相对误差≤7%,验证了该模型对推进速度预测的有效性。     

油田内部热油管道最佳操作参数的快速确定

由于油田内部热油管道操作参数上的不合理,给油田生产造成了不必要的能量损耗。利用管道分段的方法,通过热力和水力计算,生成出站参数曲线图,方便快捷的为油田内部的热油管道确定最佳的出站（管道起点）加热温度和出站压力,减少能源的浪费。计算中,考虑了流量、含水量、黏度变化等因素,为流量和含水量不断变化的油田内部加热输油管道的优化运行提供参考。