Forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chains-based approaches

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modeling have further highlighted the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure for guaranteeing the correct characterization of real-world populations and underlying travel demands. In this regard, we propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling-based methods to capture the behavioral complexity and the great heterogeneity of agents of the true population through representative micro-samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions using either full or partial conditional probabilities or both of them simultaneously. In particular, the estimation of socio-demographic or transport-related variables and the characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. The fully probabilistic structure based on Markov Chains characterizing this framework makes it innovative compared to standard activity-based models. Moreover, data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modeling framework. We illustrate that this framework effectively captures the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to meeting the demand for large-scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems.     

Multi-objective optimization for asphalt pavement maintenance plans at project level: Integrating performance,cost and environment

Traditionally, asphalt pavement maintenance mainly considers pavement performance and cost and largely ignores the environment while substantial amount of environmental burdens are released in the process. In this study, a multi-objective optimization model was developed integrating the three elements in order to optimize the asphalt pavement maintenance plans at the project level. Pavement performance element was decided as the multiplier of pavement serviceability index and traffic volume. Cost element was represented by the net present value, including components of agency cost, vehicle operation cost and salvage value. Environmental element, integrating energy consumption, global warming potential, acidification potential and respiratory effects potential, was measured by the life cycle assessment model. A hypothetic asphalt pavement maintenance case study was conducted using the developed multi-objective optimization model and harvested 103 sets of feasible combinations of maintenance plans, each of which is non-dominated by the others. Trade-offs analysis was performed among the three objectives and visualized in both two- and three-dimension forms. It is found there is an opportunity of reducing the cost and environmental impacts to 80.3% and 77.8% and increasing the pavement performance to 146.6% compared to the base case. However, they are mutually compromised and cannot be reached simultaneously. The developed model reveals the quantitatively interactive relationship of the three objectives and helps optimize the asphalt pavement maintenance plans.     

Evaluating Flexible Transport Solutions

Abstract

Flexible transport services (FTS) have been of increasing interest in developing countries as a bridge between the use of personal car travel and fixed route transit services. This paper reports on findings from a recent study in Queensland Australia, which identified lessons from an international review and implications for Australia. Potential strategic directions, including a vision, mission, key result areas, strategies, and identified means of measuring performance are described. Evaluation criteria for assessing flexible transport proposals were developed, and approaches to identifying and assessing needs and demands outlined. The use of emerging technologies is also a key element of successful flexible transport services.     

Tradable credits for managing car travel: a review of empirical research and relevant behavioural approaches

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in Tradable Credits (TC) as an alternative measure to manage the growth of personal car use. This paper summarises the results and methodologies of studies that have sought to anticipate the behavioural responses to several proposed TC schemes that target personal travel. In a critical reflection on this work and in an attempt to inspire future research, we argue that future empirical studies on TC behaviours can greatly benefit from insights from the fields of behavioural economics and cognitive psychology. Therefore, in the second part of the paper, we bring together behavioural concepts from these fields that are relevant in a TC decision-making context. Based on observations from current TC studies and the behavioural mechanisms identified in the second part of the paper, we propose promising directions for future research on understanding the impact of TC on personal car travel.     

Airline energy efficiency measures using the Virtual Frontier Network RAM with weak disposability

In this paper, airline energy efficiency is divided into three stages: the operations stage, the services stage and the sales stage. Greenhouse gas emissions are treated as an undesirable output of the services stage. This new three-stage strategic operating framework is a modification of existing models. A new model, Virtual Frontier Network Range Adjusted Measure with weak disposability, is proposed to evaluate the efficiencies of 22 international airlines, from 2008 to 2012. The results show that the new model can establish more reasonable rankings and confirm new benchmarking airlines and that inclusion in the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme has had little influence on the improvement of airline energy efficiency.     

照明长度和亮度随车速变化的隧道照明智能控制系统研究

随着我国交通运输业日益发达,越来越多的公路隧道投入运营,其安全性和运营成本之间的矛盾也越来越受到关注,如何在保证隧道运营安全的前提下,尽可能的降低运营成本成为亟待解决的难题。本文从隧道照明安全节能的角度出发,提出一种根据车速改变加强照明区段长度的隧道照明控制系统,满足照明质量的同时进行隧道的"按需照明"。系统将车速信息分为50 km/h以下、50~70 km/h、70~90 km/h、90 km/h以上四个速度区段,每个速度区段设计不同的加强照明区段长度;通过电感式线圈检测进入隧道的车辆速度作为控制输入参数,控制相应区段进行照明。     

Environmental impacts of public transport systems using real-time control method

Public Transport (PT) systems rely more and more on online information extracted from both operator’s intelligent equipment and user’s smartphone applications. This allows for a better fit between supply and demand of the multimodal PT system, especially through the use of PT real-time control actions/tactics. In doing so there is also an opportunity to consider environmental-related issues to approach energy saving and reduced pollution. This study investigates and analyses the benefits of using real-time PT operational tactics in reducing the undesirable environmental impacts. A tactic-based control (TBC) optimization model is used to minimize total passenger travel time and maximize direct transfers (without waiting). The model consists of a control policy built upon a combination of three tactics: holding, skip-stops, and boarding limit. The environmental-related measure is the global warming potential (GWP) using the life cycle assessment technique. The methodology developed is applied to a real life case study in Auckland, New Zealand. Results show that TBC could reduce the GWP by means of reduction of total passenger travel times and vehicle travel cycle time. That is, the TBC model results in a 5.6% reduction in total GWP per day compared with an existing no-tactic scenario. This study supports the use of real-time control actions to maintain a reliable PT service, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and subsequently moving towards greener PT systems.     

Vehicle electrification in a developing country: Status and issue,from a well-to-wheel perspective

The increase of public attention, scientific research and political interest in environmental problems associated with transportation has provided the motivation for re-invention of electric vehicles. However the usage of grid-dependent EVs with a high-carbon electricity grid might produce more damage to the environment. This study aims to provide an environmental impact comparison of ICEVs, HEVs and EVs during their usage cycle, by modeling their energy consumption (electricity or fuel) and the supply chains of the supplied energy, (well-to-wheel) based on a life cycle assessment. The results show that running EVs with the existing mixed sources of electrical energy produce larger impacts on the environment 60% of the time; when compared to HEVs. When compared to ICEVs, EVs produce a larger environmental impact on 7 out of 15 environmental impact categories. Overall the environmental impacts of EVs are substantial based on the well-to-wheel analysis. It will continue to be so if no change is made to the methods of electricity generation in the near future. Given that the environmental profile of EVs is linked with the existing national electricity generation mix, the national electricity supply must be made cleaner before the electrification of the urban transport system.     

技工院校新能源汽车技能人才培养探索

素质教育背景下,技工院校的人才培养不仅要具备较高的职业综合素养、专业技能知识储备与技能实践能力,还需要具备较高的人才市场核心竞争力与岗位适应能力.但就目前我国技工院校的新能源汽车专业课程教学现状来看,还存在很多教学问题,需要改变传统的教学形式与教学观念,积极探索顺应时代发展的专业技能人才培养模式,才能够有效满足企业对新...