Classification decision tree algorithm assisting in diagnosing solitary pulmonary nodule by SPECT/CT fusion imaging

Objective To develop a classification tree algorithm to improve diagnostic performances of 99mTc-MIBI SPECT/CT fusion imaging in differentiating solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs). Methods Forty-four SPNs, including 30 malignant cases and 14 benign ones that were eventually pathologically identified, were included in this prospective study. All patients received 99Tcm-MIBI SPECT/CT scanning at an early stage and a delayed stage before operation. Thirty predictor variables, including 11 clinical variables, 4 variables of emission and 15 variables of transmission information from SPECT/CT scanning, were analyzed independently by the classification tree algorithm and radiological residents. Diagnostic rules were demonstrated in tree-topology, and diagnostic performances were compared with Area under Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). Results A classification decision tree with lowest relative cost of 0.340 was developed for 99Tcm-MIBI SPECT/CT scanning in which the value of Target/Normal region of 99Tcm-MIBI uptake in the delayed stage and in the early stage, age, cough and specula sign were five most important contributors. The sensitivity and specificity were 93.33% and 78. 57e, respectively, a little higher than those of the expert. The sensitivity and specificity by residents of Grade one were 76.67% and 28.57%, respectively, and AUC of CART and expert was 0.886±0.055 and 0.829±0.062, respectively, and the corresponding AUC of residents was 0.566±0.092. Comparisons of AUCs suggest that performance of CART was similar to that of expert (P=0.204), but greater than that of residents (P<0.001). Conclusion Our data mining technique using classification decision tree has a much higher accuracy than residents. It suggests that the application of this algorithm will significantly improve the diagnostic performance of residents.     

基于AHP模型的海外码头投资布局决策指标体系

在"一带一路"倡议指引下,中国企业加快了全球码头投资步伐,为全球港口行业发展贡献了"中国方案"。但国际码头投资是高度市场化和相对充分竞争的领域,海外码头投资是一项复杂的系统工程,投资风险不容低估。以"把控风险、价值投资"为导向,总结我国企业海外码头投资的经验教训,按照系统性、典型性、可操作性和综合性原则,从营商环境、市场潜力、竞争形势、国别价值和投资主体优势5个维度,构建海外码头投资布局决策指标体系,分3个层级共23个核心指标,建立基于AHP(层次分析法)的海外码头投资布局决策模型,以期为我国企业投资布局海外码头提供决策参考。     

Container Terminal Development in Mainland China and Its Impact on the Competitiveness of the Port of Hong Kong

In recent years, China's container ports have experienced a significant expansion in throughput and capacity. This paper provides a review of the sector and analyses the recent development of container ports and terminals within Mainland China. It then focuses in more depth on the competition between the ports of Shenzhen and Hong Kong. In particular, the port of Shenzhen is analysed in the context of Robinson's criteria for hub port development to try to discern whether it will become the dominant regional hub. The discussion concludes that despite Shenzhen's current competitive advantages, Hong Kong will, in all probability, retain its dominant role.     

Road pricing—some of the more neglected theoretical and policy implications

The intention of this paper has been to raise some doubts about the extent to which the control of congestion is understood, not as an engineering problem, but as a socio‐economic one concerned with making the most appropriate use of scarce resources.

Despite some doubts, it seems that the basic theory, as applied to a highly simplified situation, is technically correct. What is much less clear, however, is the extent to which the acceptance of this analysis as a basis for policy making in the real world is justified. Even if, qualitatively, its implications are correct, there are significant quantitative uncertainties. Given that governments, local and national, are still pouring considerable sums of money, both through subsidies and investment, into the relief of congestion, it is desirable to change this state of affairs. There seems to be ample scope for the transport economist, the transport planner and the transport engineer to contribute to a debate which has a long and, in places, distinguished pedigree, but where the outcome is as yet considerably outstripped by the importance and complexity of the problems which must be solved.

     

改进灰色聚类模型在区域物流枢纽城市分类决策中的应用

通过对区域物流的发展特点分析，选用经济指标、物流指标以及其他定性指标，提出一种改进的灰色聚类对区域物流枢纽城市分级决策，并对各类物流枢纽城市相互作用机理从极化效应与扩散效应方面分析，依据增长级理论与梯度发展提出3类城市物流发展的基本思路与发展策略，通过实例证明，该方法对目前我国区域内制定物流发展战略具有较好的实际意义。     

基于混合TOPSIS法的弹药保障路径优化决策

利用AHP法赋权,运用TOPSIS法计算贴近度,建立弹药保障线路选择模型,进行多方案比选。结果表明,该方法既能够反映各指标的不同重要程度,也能够反映综合评价结果,计算简便、研究结果可靠,能够为展示弹药保障决策提供科学依据,具有一定借鉴意义。     

浅谈船长应急决策支持系统

在任何紧急情况下,及时、正确的船长决策直接决定了船舶险情事故是否能够得到有效避免或控制。本文集中讨论了当前船舶应急管理存在的问题,并根据相关法律法规的要求就船长应急决策支持系统的主要内容进行了深入分析,最后就如何提高值班船员和船长的应急反应能力提出了相关建议。     

Evaluating Boating Safety Risk in Intracoastal Waterways

Growth in the number of recreational vessels that use inland and coastal waterways, coupled with the diversity of boating activities, results in increased boating-related conflicts, accidents, and fatalities. This situation has led to numerous requests from boaters, shorefront property owners, waterfront businesses, and local governments for the imposition and enforcement of boating safety speed zones within Florida's Intracoastal Waterways. A decision-support framework that incorporates Geographic Information Systems (GIS)–based risk assessment was developed to assist the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission's Division of Law Enforcement evaluate requests and applications for the establishment of boating safety zones, pursuant to the Florida Administrative Code Rule 68-D-23.105 “Criteria for Approval of Regulatory Markers.” The risk assessment uses geospatial data compiled from multiple government agencies, survey data from subject matter experts, and public input from participatory workshops. Relevant spatial data includes waterway features and marine infrastructure from field surveys, vessel traffic patterns observed and mapped from aerial reconnaissance, and indicators of boater behaviors extracted from accident and citation reports. The outcome is a characterization of waterway segments according to perceived risk to boating safety. The application was tested in two Florida counties and it helped guide the establishment of new, and the revision of existing, boating regulatory zones within their Intracoastal Waterways. The application design is such that it is adaptable to waterways beyond those in Florida.     

Multiple criteria and fuzzy based evaluation of logistics performance for intermodal transportation

This paper presents a framework to evaluate the logistics performance of intermodal freight transportation. Fuzzy set techniques are applied to assess the logistics performance within the decision process of freight operators. Using a fuzzy‐based approach, fuzzy‐AHP is applied to assess the criteria by different judgment procedures. Consequently, fuzzy‐MCDM is used to assess operators' perception of the logistics performance via proper assignment of numerical scores. The subjective judgments for hierarchical criteria are transformed into fuzzy degrees of score. The methodology provides an alternative approach to facilitate the importance of a set of performance criteria. It can also entail use of improved corresponding parameters to develop a better freight transport system.     

大深度潜器耐压圆柱壳的多目标优化设计研究

采用快速非劣分层多目标遗传算法(NSGA II)和多属性决策理论,针对大深度潜器环肋圆柱壳在静水压力作用下的多目标离散优化问题进行了研究.以重量及强度应力量为目标函数,求出了Pareto最优解,给出了强度应力量和失稳载荷与重量之间的分布关系.采用逼近理想解的排序方法(TOPSIS)和信息熵方法,得到基于无偏好信息情况下的最优解排序.结果表明,这种联合方法能够快速寻找到最优解,这些解分布比较均匀、多样性好,能够为决策者提供较多选择,决策的最终结果合理.