交通事故侦测中占有率的改进灰色预测

在交通事故侦测的统计预测算法中引入灰色理论的实践证明，灰色预测是占有率短期预测的可行方法，同时二重估计改进的预测方法可合理地提高交通事故预测的准确性。     

巴黎公共自行车租赁点规划设计

总结了巴黎公共自行车租赁点规划中采用的出行需求预测方法,规划在分区基础上,根据居住人口、就业岗位、商业和设施4种类型,测算各区日均出行次数,进而确定公共自行车租赁点数量及自行车规模。阐述了租赁点定位的影响因素、定位方法及布设原则。详细分析了租赁点的布设方式,明确路边租赁点、人行道上的租赁点和行道树附近租赁点的布设要点,对自行车、停车桩、服务终端等设施也提出了相关要求。最后,在巴黎经验基础上指出,我国部分城市提出的“解决公交出行最后一公里”的公共自行车系统单一功能定位,不利于租赁点的合理布局;租赁点主要布设在人行道的做法也会引发新的交通问题。     

基于混沌时间序列的道路断面短时交通流预测模型

为了提高道路断面短时交通流预测的精确性,本文对道路断面的短时交通流数据进行混沌时间序列分析,并对多维交通流时间序列数据进行了相空间重构,建立基于混沌时间序列分析的道路断面短时交通流预测模型,利用粒子群优化算法优化模型的参数选择．最后应用本文的方法对城市快速路采集的断面交通流数据进行分析,对道路断面短时交通流建立预测模型并验证其有效性．     

基于人工神经网络的湘江最大洪峰流量中、长期预报

将统计相关性分析与模糊方法相结合,识别出影响湘江湘潭站年最大洪峰流量的前期流域降水、大气环流形势等预报因子,通过比较几种改进的BP网络的优缺点,探讨了BP网络建模过程中存在的几个问题,建立了LMBP算法和自适应BP算法相耦合的神经网络中、长期水文预报模型．预报结果表明：预报效果好、精度高,且具有较高的推广和应用价值．     

综合超前地质预报在熊洞湾隧道施工中的应用

采用"平导超前,物探先行,钻探验证,综合分析,反馈施工"的综合超前地质预报方法,及时、准确地监测熊洞湾隧道的地质状况,弥补了勘察设计对地质资料的遗漏,指导在断层、煤层、瓦斯、煤窑采空区、岩溶等不良地质段的隧道施工,保证隧道施工的安全和进度.     

舰船电子元器件自主可控现状与发展需求研究

近年来,我国信息化关键软硬件技术得到了长足发展,特别是基础电子元器件性能有了大幅度提升.然而,在信息化相关的电子元器件技术和产品上与国外还存在较大差距,制约了装备的国产化率和自主可控能力水平的进一步提升.本文分析舰船装备领域基础电子元器件的发展现状,并提出下一步的发展需求建议以及确保基础电子元器件自主可控的具体措施.     

Asymmetry in transport fuel demand: Evidence from household level data

Models for gasoline demand for transportation activities generally assume that demand is perfectly reversible with respect to gasoline price (and income). The small literature which relaxes the reversibility assumption in gasoline demand argues technological fixation leads to this asymmetry and utilizes aggregate time-series model to find evidence in favour of asymmetry. In this research it is suggested that there could also be behavioural factors behind this asymmetric response, possibly due to the loss aversion nature of human beings as described in the prospect theory. For the first time, household level data was used to understand asymmetry in gasoline demand in response to changes in gasoline price and income. There was statistical evidence that gasoline price and income both can induce asymmetric changes in gasoline demand among households. Specifically, elasticity with respect to rising prices and falling income is larger than the elasticity with respect to falling prices and rising income respectively, which is consistent with loss aversion in gasoline purchase behaviour. There was also some evidence of heterogeneity in the asymmetric responses between urban and rural households. The results have implications for transport-related energy tax policies or subsidies, while the method can be applied directly for non-energy goods as well.     

Tradable credits for managing car travel: a review of empirical research and relevant behavioural approaches

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in Tradable Credits (TC) as an alternative measure to manage the growth of personal car use. This paper summarises the results and methodologies of studies that have sought to anticipate the behavioural responses to several proposed TC schemes that target personal travel. In a critical reflection on this work and in an attempt to inspire future research, we argue that future empirical studies on TC behaviours can greatly benefit from insights from the fields of behavioural economics and cognitive psychology. Therefore, in the second part of the paper, we bring together behavioural concepts from these fields that are relevant in a TC decision-making context. Based on observations from current TC studies and the behavioural mechanisms identified in the second part of the paper, we propose promising directions for future research on understanding the impact of TC on personal car travel.     

Long-term impact of the Shinkansen on rail and air demand: analysis with data from Northeast Japan

This paper analyses how the high-speed rail construction in Northeast Japan (Tohoku) has affected total demand and interregional travel patterns. We use annual interregional passenger data from 1989 to 2012 and apply regression analysis with the demand between Tokyo and the Tohoku prefectures as the dependent variable. We distinguish particularly between the ‘Full-’ and the ‘Mini-’ Shinkansen, where the latter are branch services running with reduced speed. We find that the ‘Full-Shinkansen’ quickly increases rail and total public transport trips and generates additional rail demand year on year. The ‘Mini-Shinkansen’ impacts are less pronounced. Furthermore, our analysis shows that the Shinkansen has shifted some demand from air to rail once it started operation and increased rail share gradually. We therefore suggest that predictions of demand impacts should carefully distinguish immediate from gradual impacts. We also discuss differences in regional demand in that not all prefectures have gained equally from Shinkansen construction.     

基于神经网络的道路通行能力与交通需求匹配度判别研究

交通的供需是否匹配关系到城市和枢纽的发展前景。文中在探讨道路通行能力与需求匹配特性的基础上,用BP神经网络理论建立一种交通匹配预测模型。该模型发挥神经网络的优势,对数据并行处理和分布存储,通过训练、学习产生一个非线性映射,自适应地对数据进行预测。通过相关数据实验证明,该神经网络模型有较高的精度,并有较好的适用性。