Quantifying uncertainty in high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem models

Marine ecosystem models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, and are being used to estimate the effects of future changes in the earth system with a view to informing important policy decisions. Despite their potential importance, far too little attention has been, and is generally, paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to real-world processes. With the increasing complexity of the models themselves comes an increasing complexity among model results. If we are to develop useful modelling tools for the marine environment we need to be able to understand and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the simulations. Analysing errors within highly multivariate model outputs, and relating them to even more complex and multivariate observational data, are not trivial tasks. Here we describe the application of a series of techniques, including a 2-stage self-organising map (SOM), non-parametric multivariate analysis, and error statistics, to a complex spatio-temporal model run for the period 1988–1989 in the Southern North Sea, coinciding with the North Sea Project which collected a wealth of observational data. We use model output, large spatio-temporally resolved data sets and a combination of methodologies (SOM, MDS, uncertainty metrics) to simplify the problem and to provide tractable information on model performance. The use of a SOM as a clustering tool allows us to simplify the dimensions of the problem while the use of MDS on independent data grouped according to the SOM classification allows us to validate the SOM. The combination of classification and uncertainty metrics allows us to pinpoint the variables and associated processes which require attention in each region. We recommend the use of this combination of techniques for simplifying complex comparisons of model outputs with real data, and analysis of error distributions.     

破碎围岩中连拱隧道荷载计算理论解

针对连拱隧道围岩、结构整体受力和受力敏感分析不明确的问题,提出按岩体结构观点对连拱隧道围岩进行分类,即分成连续介质围岩、碎裂介质围岩、块裂介质围岩和板裂介质围岩。将碎裂介质围岩、块裂介质围岩和板裂介质围岩称为破碎围岩。建立破碎围岩的力学模型,求破碎围岩中连拱隧道荷载的理论解。     

A parameterized consideration set model for airport choice: an application to the San Francisco Bay Area

Airport choice is an important air travel-related decision in multiple airport regions. This paper proposes the use of a probabilistic choice set multinomial logit (PCMNL) model for airport choice that generalizes the multinomial logit model used in all earlier airport choice studies. The paper discusses the properties of the PCMNL model, and applies it to examine airport choice of business travelers residing in the San Francisco Bay Area. Substantive policy implications of the results are discussed. Overall, the results indicate that it is important to analyze the choice (consideration) set formation of travelers. Failure to recognize consideration effects of air travelers can lead to biased model parameters, misleading evaluation of the effects of policy action, and a diminished data fit.     

Validation of a schedule‐based capacity restraint transit assignment model for a large‐scale network

This paper describes the application of a capacity restraint trip assignment algorithm to a real, large‐scale transit network and the validation of the results. Unlike the conventional frequency‐based approach, the network formulation of the proposed model is dynamic and schedule‐based. Transit vehicles are assumed to operate to a set of pre‐determined schedules. Passengers are assumed to select paths based on a generalized cost function including in‐vehicle and out‐of‐vehicle time and line change penalty. The time‐varying passenger demand is loaded onto the network by a time increment simulation method, which ensures that the capacity restraint of each vehicle during passenger boarding is strictly observed. The optimal‐path and path‐loading algorithms are applied iteratively by the method of successive averages until the network converges to the predictive dynamic user equilibrium. The Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway network is used to validate the model results. The potential applications of the model are also discussed.     

三峡枢纽泄洪、船闸输水及电站调峰对通航条件的影响

回顾了三峡枢纽通航水流条件的研究工作,介绍了研究的进展和取得的成绩,指出了存在的问题和努力的方向。     

一类运输工具带双重能力约束的LRP问题

分析了一类运输工具受双重能力约束的LRP问题，即在物流网络节点最大单批处理能力及运输工具总运输能力双重约束的情况下,如何进行物流中心选址和运输路线安排，使总的费用最小,模型假设网络系统满足如下条件：①节点的最大单批处理能力是逐层变化的，②货物只能用不同运输工具经过某一物流中心进行中转运输．文中建立了混合整数规划模型，提出了一种优化算法，并用优化算法对实例进行求解．     

海岸河口多功能数学模型软件包TK-2D研究与应用

海岸河口多功能数学模型软件包TK-2D是交通部天津水运工程科学研究所在近30年海岸河口数学模型研究技术和经验积累的基础上,通过对海岸河口数学模型进行判断的改进完善推出的海岸河口多功能“五场”品牌化数学模型软件,是国内水运工程行业第一个拥有自主知识产权的国产行业品牌软件。文中主要对TK-2D进行了简介,包括TK-2D主模块、辅助模块、网格处理技术、重要系数和参数及重要工程应用。     

一种快速建立道路整体模型的方法

在系统分析了现有的道路三维模型构建方法的基础上,提出了一种将道路设计面模型与地形表面模型融为一体的整体模型构建方法,该方法基于约束Delaunay三角网内插入点和约束边的理论,利用逐点插入算法原理和Windows文件映射技术,快速实现了道路设计面与地形表面的整体建网。应用道路整体模型可以实现道路景观的三维漫游,评价三维立体线形以及与周围地形的配合情况。     

复合土钉支护侧土压力合理分布模式及其工程应用

在分析复合土钉支护侧土压力分布模式及相关国内外著名实测结果的基础上,考虑基坑底面受开挖影响的深度,提出一种新型的侧土压分布改进模式,即“五边形”模型,并将此模型应用于某水泥搅拌桩复合土钉支护工程中。计算结果表明,所提出的“五边形”侧土压力分布模式与实测结果相符合,与现有的侧土压力分布模式相比更加合理,对复合土钉支护结构的整体设计、稳定性分析、工程造价预算等具有指导意义和应用价值。     

智能交通在上海城市快速路网运行管理中的应用

从分析上海城市快速道路交通管理的需求入手,对系统功能、总体结构和核心交通流算法模型进行了介绍。这些理论、方法指导规划了上海高架道路先进的交通管理系统实施方案,并集成于延安高架道路上完成了先进的交通管理系统示范工程,显示了良好的社会、经济效益。