Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decision-making methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria (‘economic’, ‘technical’, ‘political’ and ‘safety’ factors) and their sub-criteria.

The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, ‘economic’ is the most important category of influential factors, followed by ‘safety’, ‘technical’ and ‘political’ factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the ‘safety’ and ‘political’ domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to ‘economic’ factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.     

An exploratory study on the Northern Sea Route as an alternative shipping passage

This qualitative inductive research explores the potential benefits for the Scandinavian economy and ports through the implementation of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative for container shipping to the established Southern route through the Suez Canal. To extract expert’s opinions and address these objectives, we utilised in-depth face-to-face semi-structured interviews through purposive sampling in a single case study setting. The analysis of the data demonstrates that the commercialisation of NSR can yield benefits for the Scandinavian economy (e.g. GDP increase, jobs creation) and reveals the benefits of Scandinavian ports (e.g. ECA’s, flexibility, hinterland, etc.) compared to other ports in North West Europe, which potentially grasp the NSR as an opportunity. However, it is highlighted that this can only be achieved if Scandinavian countries are proactive and secure their involvement.     

Bike route choice modeling using GPS data without choice sets of paths

Concerned by the nuisances of motorized travel on urban life, policy makers are faced with the challenge of making cycling a more attractive alternative for everyday transportation. Route choice models can help achieve this objective by gaining insights into the trade-offs cyclists make when choosing their routes and by allowing the effect of infrastructure improvements to be analyzed. We estimate a link-based bike route choice model from a sample of GPS observations in the city of Eugene on a network comprising over 40,000 links. The so-called recursive logit (RL) model (Fosgerau et al., 2013) does not require to sample any choice set of paths. We show the advantages of this approach in the context of prediction by focusing on two applications of the model: link flows and accessibility measures. Compared to the path-based approach which requires to generate choice sets, the RL model proves to make significant gains in computational time and to avoid paradoxical accessibility measure results discussed in previous works, e.g. Nassir et al. (2014).     

船舶烧伤病房气流组织分析与优化

针对舰船舱室气流组织的形式特点,以烧伤病房作为研究对象建立数学模型,通过使用Airpak软件对烧伤病房不同设计方案下的气流组织进行了计算仿真,通过舱室温湿度,空气流速,热舒适指标等参数的对比,获得舱室的压力、温度、速度、热舒适性指标等的分布特性,对烧伤病房气流组织进行了分析并提出了优化方法,可以有效提高人员的舒适性和气流组织效果。     

小郭巨渔港工程防波堤平面布置方案

波浪是渔港建设中最重要的水动力因素,由于外海风浪作用强烈,影响港内渔船泊稳,需修建防波堤挡潮抗浪。从波浪角度研究防波堤平面布置,首先分析了舟山市六横岛小郭巨渔港工程的建设条件,确定防浪掩护控制标准,并提出防波堤直线形、折线形布置的8个平面布置方案。以满足渔船有效泊稳面积为准,采用MIKE21 BW模块计算在50 a一遇波浪与水位组合条件下堤后波高分布及防浪掩护效果,对8个方案进行研究,基于其中相对较优方案,进行了2个方案的优化。最终确定某渔港防波堤平面布置最优方案为:防波堤总长350 m、折堤夹角132°、直线段长122 m、折线段长228 m。     

汛期落成洲整治建筑物对船舶锚泊安全的影响

随着落成洲整治建筑物的建成,该区域内的流场将发生一定的变化,对船舶的航行及锚泊造成一定的影响,利用计算流体力学软件,数值模拟整治建筑物建成前后该区域内的流场变化情况。结果表明:整治建筑物的建成将有效地防止水流对落成洲的冲刷作用,航道水流更加稳定;但是,落成洲左汊下游镇江危险品锚地所在区域内的流速将明显提高,不利于锚泊安全,尤其是汛期。因此,应加强对该区域的监测和管理。     

柴油机排气污染物PM和NOx催化处理反应平台设计与应用

使用自行设计的程序温控的催化反应平台和模拟配气系统相连接,测试并获得催化剂的催化还原NOx和催化氧化PM的准确的催化性能数据.使用该催化反应平台和常柴CZ2102型柴油机实验平台相连接,获得在稀燃条件下介孔镧铈锆铝复合氧化物对PM和NOx的催化处理实验的应用数据.为同时去除柴油机排气污染物PM颗粒和NOx的工程应用打下坚实的基础.     

超声清洗槽内声场分布的研究

从一维平面波理论入手分析了超声清洗槽内的声场分布特性,用水听器法和染色法测量了超声清洗槽内的声场分布.结果表明,清洗槽内液面水平方向上的声压分布比较均匀,垂直方向上的声压由槽底到液面呈起伏变化,显示了驻波特性,总体上有逐渐减小的趋势,这说明了声波在传播过程中有一定的衰减.实验测量的声压分布和理论分析的结果比较一致.     

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为了适应经济发展，我国许多城市加快了轨道交通的建设步伐。私营公司与政府签订合作协议，共同参与运营管理，这打破了以往一家运营商的垄断局面。如何在保证高质量的运营效率的同时，兼顾各家运营商的收益分配，运费清分的研究显得十分重要。本文分析了影响清分的主要因素和原则，建立有效路径选择模型和基于概率的多路径选择模型。采用改进的遍历算法以保证有效路径集的完整性。利用c++程序计算出各条路径的分担比例和各家运营商的清分比例，给出了提高清分比例的研究结论和建议。     

桥梁荷载横向分布系数计算方法

以主梁挠度横向分布规律来确定桥梁荷载横向分布,考虑了桥梁结构计算模态的固有频率、振型和模态质量,提出了一种适用于各种结构形式桥梁的荷载横向分布系数计算方法,即模态参数法.分别以一座有机玻璃模型试验桥梁和一座公路斜交T型桥梁为算例,介绍了桥梁荷载横向分布系数的计算步骤.计算结果表明:荷载横向分布系数的测量值与计算值最大误差为2.6%,因此,相比于传统的桥梁荷载横向分布系数计算方法,模态参数法减小了对桥梁结构进行分类和假定带来的误差,更具有通用性和准确性.