基于市民生活行为学的交通行为研究综述

对交通行为的研究应该打破传统研究方法，转向基于市民生活行为学(狭义：生活导向型方法论)的研究方法。市民生活行为学侧重于考量生活选择之间的相互依存关系，不仅主张交通行为是各种生活选择的结果，也主张生活选择受交通行为的影响。这些主张既有理论基础也有实证依据，因此，涉及市民生活的各种决策需要不同部门的沟通与合作，这种沟通与合作需要有共同语言。市民生活行为学既为跨部门交通规划与管理提供全新的理论，也是服务于跨部门城市与区域政策(公共政策)的全新理论。市民生活行为学作为跨学科的理论体系，有望成为支持跨部门决策的通用语言。本文首先介绍市民生活行为学及其在交通行为研究的应用。其次，针对生活方式、汽车依赖、家庭能源消耗、信息通信技术与生活、健康与生活选择、旅游行为、老年人出行、年轻人风险行为、自然灾害应对及生涯流动在内的10个与交通行为密不可分的热点话题，介绍了基于市民生活行为学的交通行为研究进展。最后，提出基于市民生活行为学的交通行为研究的挑战与展望。     

考虑异质性的经典随机后悔最小化模型改进研究

传统基于后悔理论的交通行为模型对异质性考虑不充分，对真实选择行为的解释存在不足.本文利用韦伯比率，考虑出行者对各方式属性变量感知的异质性，对经典随机后悔最小化模型进行改进，分别建立基于随机效用最大化，经典随机后悔最小化和改进经典随机后悔最小化的选择模型；以网约车选择行为为例进行实证研究，验证改进模型效果.结果表明：3种模型参数标定结果具有一致性，改进模型的拟合优度(0.271)和命中率(75.8%)相较于另外两个模型均较优；改进模型能更好地描述多维属性决策过程中的半补偿原则和折中效应，可以提高模型对真实选择行为的解释能力.     

考虑居住区位的公共交通出行行为分析模型

为探讨不同层面居住区位对公共交通出行行为的影响，基于计划行为理论与群体动力理论，构建涵盖居住区位与心理影响因素共同作用的多水平结构方程模型.模型同时考虑个体层面与社区层面变量对出行选择的影响，利用Mplus软件标定模型参数.结果表明，不同层面变量对出行行为意向的影响存在差异.个体层面变量对行为意向的影响程度由大到小依次为：居住区位(0.665)、主观规范(0.664)、行为态度(0.577)、知觉行为控制(0.547).社区层面变量的影响程度为：行为态度(0.736)大于居住区位(0.646).     

A two-stage approach to modeling vacant taxi movements

In this paper, a two-stage modeling approach is proposed to predict vacant taxi movements in searching for customers. The taxi movement problem is formulated into a two-stage model that consists of two sub-models, namely the first and second stage sub-models. The first stage sub-model estimates the zone choice of vacant taxi drivers for customer-search and the second stage sub-model determines the circulation time and distance of vacant taxi drivers in each zone by capturing their local customer-search decisions in a cell-based network within the zone chosen in the first stage sub-model. These two sub-models are designed to influence each other, and hence an iterative solution procedure is introduced to solve for a convergent solution. The modeling concept, advantages, and applications are illustrated by the global positioning system data of 460 Hong Kong urban taxis. The results demonstrate that the proposed model formulation offers a great improvement in terms of root mean square error as compared with the existing taxi customer-search models, and show the model capabilities of predicting the changes in vacant taxi trip distributions with respect to the variations in the fleet size and fare. Potential taxi policies are investigated and discussed according to the findings to provide insights in managing the Hong Kong taxi market.     

基于路段间转移概率的最优路径预测方法

提出一种基于路段间转移概率的最优路径预测方法，即根据出行时间，将历史出行数据分为早高峰、晚高峰、非高峰3组反映不同交通状况的时间段；根据起点和终点所在区域，对出行数据作进一步处理，解决给定起点与终点之间出行数据不足的问题。基于有经验的出行者选择路径即为最优路径这一假设，通过历史出行轨迹计算得到路段间的转移概率，建立Markov链模拟出行者路段选择行为，将最大选择概率路径作为最优路径的预测结果，并给出其求解方法。该方法仅利用历史出行轨迹进行最优路径预测，避免了复杂的路段阻抗计算，且具有数据易获取，与实际出行行为一致性高，计算量小的优点。案例分析表明，预测结果准确性在不同出行时段下产生变化，而交通区域划分的大小对其影响较小。     

On the electrification of road transportation – A review of the environmental,economic, and social performance of electric two-wheelers

Electrification is widely considered as a viable strategy for reducing the oil dependency and environmental impacts of road transportation. In pursuit of this strategy, most attention has been paid to electric cars. However, substantial, yet untapped, potentials could be realized in urban areas through the large-scale introduction of electric two-wheelers. Here, we review the environmental, economic, and social performance of electric two-wheelers, demonstrating that these are generally more energy efficient and less polluting than conventionally-powered motor vehicles. Electric two-wheelers tend to decrease exposure to pollution as their environmental impacts largely result from vehicle production and electricity generation outside of urban areas. Our analysis suggests that the price of e-bikes has been decreasing at a learning rate of 8%. Despite price differentials of 5000 ± 1800 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW h⁻¹ in Europe, e-bikes are penetrating the market because they appear to offer an apparent additional use value relative to bicycles. Mid-size and large electric two-wheelers do not offer such an additional use value compared to their conventional counterparts and constitute niche products at price differentials of 700 ± 360 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW⁻¹ and 160 ± 90 EUR₂₀₁₂ kW⁻¹, respectively. The large-scale adoption of electric two-wheelers can reduce traffic noise and road congestion but may necessitate adaptations of urban infrastructure and safety regulations. A case-specific assessment as part of an integrated urban mobility planning that accounts, e.g., for the local electricity mix, infrastructure characteristics, and mode-shift behavior, should be conducted before drawing conclusions about the sustainability impacts of electric two-wheelers.     

雾环境下高速公路驾驶人跟驰行为研究

雾环境下驾驶人行车与正常天气相比，在低能见度下视觉参照物较少，驾驶人更倾向于跟驰行驶。为研究雾环境下高速公路驾驶人跟驰行为，以真实雾环境下实车试验方式，选择多条高速公路作为试验路段，以Smart Eye眼动仪获取车辆在雾环境下高速公路驾驶人视觉参数，包含驾驶人注视区域、注视角度、注视持续时间、瞳孔直径、扫视速度以及扫视幅度等，以归一化方法对驾驶人注视重心进行分析，研究不同能见度下驾驶人的跟驰需求，并通过对雾环境下上述视觉参数进行规律总结。对雾环境下驾驶人跟驰特性进行统计及分类，将跟驰行为划分为主动、半主动、半被动以及全被动跟驰；通过分析雾区低能见度下驾驶人跟驰行驶条件，引入多维偏好理论及后悔理论，进行驾驶人跟驰决策模型构建，并基于差分法对模型进行参数标定及验证。研究结果表明：驾驶人在1次跟驰动态过程中，正常车道保持时驾驶人扫视速度较低，而当处于车道调整时，驾驶人扫视速度存在较大波动，且平均扫视速度较高，低能见度下驾驶人注视点转移速度27.0 （°）·s^-1明显低于晴好天气的52.0 （°）·s^-1；驾驶人在跟驰过程中，能见度对驾驶人跟驰时的视觉特征有显著影响，通过跟驰模型构建可为后续雾环境下车辆跟驰前后车距及车速预测提供理论支撑。     

Fleeing from Hurricane Irma: Empirical Analysis of Evacuation Behavior Using Discrete Choice Theory

This paper analyzes the observed decision-making behavior of a sample of individuals impacted by Hurricane Irma in 2017 (n = 645) by applying advanced methods based in discrete choice theory. Our first contribution is identifying population segments with distinct behavior by constructing a latent class choice model for the choice whether to evacuate or not. We find two latent segments distinguished by demographics and risk perception that tend to be either evacuation-keen or evacuation-reluctant and respond differently to mandatory evacuation orders.Evacuees subsequently face a multi-dimensional choice composed of concurrent decisions of their departure day, departure time of day, destination, shelter type, transportation mode, and route. While these concurrent decisions are often analyzed in isolation, our second contribution is the development of a portfolio choice model (PCM), which captures decision-dimensional dependency (if present) without requiring choices to be correlated or sequential. A PCM reframes the choice set as a bundle of concurrent decision dimensions, allowing for flexible and simple parameter estimation. Estimated models reveal subtle yet intuitive relations, creating new policy implications based on dimensional variables, secondary interactions, demographics, and risk-perception variables. For example, we find joint preferences for early-nighttime evacuations (i.e., evacuations more than three days before landfall and between 6:00 pm and 5:59 am) and early-highway evacuations (i.e., evacuations more than three days before landfall and on a route composed of at least 50% highways). These results indicate that transportation agencies should have the capabilities and resources to manage significant nighttime traffic along highways well before hurricane landfall.     

基于扰动传播特征的随机Newell跟驰模型

为研究快速路场景下小汽车跟驰行为，本文从北京市快速路交通流视频中提取高时间分辨率的机动车运行轨迹数据.统计发现，在不同跟驰速度下，小汽车车头时距均服从对数正态分布；利用动态时间规整算法提取小汽车的反应时间与扰动传播速度等特征参数，分别标定其概率分布函数，证明跟驰过程中小汽车的反应时间分布峰值和数学期望分别为1.0 s 和1.57 s；在挖掘反应时间、扰动传播速度与车头时距量化关系的基础上，建立基于交通扰动传播特征的随机Newell跟驰模型，并标定得到分速度区间的模型参数.仿真结果表明，本文提出的随机Newell跟驰模型能有效刻画跟驰行为与扰动传播间的关联特征，同时生成符合预期的交通流基本图.新模型能够为跟驰行为随机特征对交通状态的影响研究(如交通流陡降、宽移动阻塞等)提供支持.     

自适应期望跟车间距和行为习惯的驾驶人跟驰模型

为满足智能车辆的个性化需求，提高智能车辆人-机交互协同的满意度和接受度，构筑双层驾驶人跟驰模型框架，提出自适应驾驶人期望跟车间距和行为习惯的个性化驾驶人跟驰模型。首先，提取个体驾驶人跟驰均衡状态的数据，采用高斯混合和概率密度函数(Gaussian Mixture Model and Probability Density Function, GMM-PDF)建立第 1 层模型，即驾驶人期望跟车距离模型。然后，将期望跟车距离参数引入模型，基于高斯混合-隐马尔可夫方法(Gaussian Mixture Model and Hidden Markov Model, GMM-HMM)学习驾驶习性，建立第2层模型预测加速度，即个性化驾驶人跟驰模型。其次，研究不同高斯分量个数对模型效果的影响，对比双层模型与 Gipps 模型、最优间距模型(Optimal Distance Model, ODM)、单层模型及通用模型的性能。最后，8位被试驾驶人的自然驾驶行为数据验证结果表明：高斯分量数量与模型性能存在一定的正相关性；在最优高斯分量数量下，8位被试驾驶人在训练集上预测误差均值为0.101 m·s-2，在测试 集上为0.123 m·s-2；随机选取其中1位驾驶人的2个跟车片段数据进行模型计算，结果显示，加速度的平均误差绝对值分别为0.087 m·s-2和0.096 m·s-2，预测效果优于Gipps模型、ODM模型、单层 模型及通用模型30%以上，与驾驶人实际跟驰行为的吻合度更高。