A generic data assimilation framework for vehicle trajectory reconstruction on signalized urban arterials using particle filters

With trajectory data, a complete microscopic and macroscopic picture of traffic flow operations can be obtained. However, trajectory data are difficult to observe over large spatiotemporal regions—particularly in urban contexts—due to practical, technical and financial constraints. The next best thing is to estimate plausible trajectories from whatever data are available. This paper presents a generic data assimilation framework to reconstruct such plausible trajectories on signalized urban arterials using microscopic traffic flow models and data from loops (individual vehicle passages and thus vehicle counts); traffic control data; and (sparse) travel time measurements from whatever source available. The key problem we address is that loops suffer from miss- and over-counts, which result in unbounded errors in vehicle accumulations, rendering trajectory reconstruction highly problematic. Our framework solves this problem in two ways. First, we correct the systematic error in vehicle accumulation by fusing the counts with sparsely available travel times. Second, the proposed framework uses particle filtering and an innovative hierarchical resampling scheme, which effectively integrates over the remaining error distribution, resulting in plausible trajectories. The proposed data assimilation framework is tested and validated using simulated data. Experiments and an extensive sensitivity analysis show that the proposed method is robust to errors both in the model and in the measurements, and provides good estimations for vehicle accumulation and vehicle trajectories with moderate sensor quality. The framework does not impose restrictions on the type of microscopic models used and can be naturally extended to include and estimate additional trajectory attributes such as destination and path, given data are available for assimilation.     

Estimating traffic volumes for signalized intersections using connected vehicle data

Recently connected vehicle (CV) technology has received significant attention thanks to active pilot deployments supported by the US Department of Transportation (USDOT). At signalized intersections, CVs may serve as mobile sensors, providing opportunities of reducing dependencies on conventional vehicle detectors for signal operation. However, most of the existing studies mainly focus on scenarios that penetration rates of CVs reach certain level, e.g., 25%, which may not be feasible in the near future. How to utilize data from a small number of CVs to improve traffic signal operation remains an open question. In this work, we develop an approach to estimate traffic volume, a key input to many signal optimization algorithms, using GPS trajectory data from CV or navigation devices under low market penetration rates. To estimate traffic volumes, we model vehicle arrivals at signalized intersections as a time-dependent Poisson process, which can account for signal coordination. The estimation problem is formulated as a maximum likelihood problem given multiple observed trajectories from CVs approaching to the intersection. An expectation maximization (EM) procedure is derived to solve the estimation problem. Two case studies were conducted to validate our estimation algorithm. One uses the CV data from the Safety Pilot Model Deployment (SPMD) project, in which around 2800 CVs were deployed in the City of Ann Arbor, MI. The other uses vehicle trajectory data from users of a commercial navigation service in China. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the estimation is found to be 9–12%, based on benchmark data manually collected and data from loop detectors. Considering the existing scale of CV deployments, the proposed approach could be of significant help to traffic management agencies for evaluating and operating traffic signals, paving the way of using CVs for detector-free signal operation in the future.     

Modeling real-time human mobility based on mobile phone and transportation data fusion

Even though a variety of human mobility models have been recently developed, models that can capture real-time human mobility of urban populations in a sustainable and economical manner are still lacking. Here, we propose a novel human mobility model that combines the advantages of mobile phone signaling data (i.e., comprehensive penetration in a population) and urban transportation data (i.e., continuous collection and high accuracy). Using the proposed human mobility model, travel demands during each 1-h time window were estimated for the city of Shenzhen, China. Significantly, the estimated travel demands not only preserved the distribution of travel demands, but also captured real-time bursts of mobility fluxes during large crowding events. Finally, based on the proposed human mobility model, a predictive model is deployed to predict crowd gatherings that usually cause severe traffic jams.     

DRM系统信道均衡的研究

DRM(Digital Radio Mondiale)是世界上唯一非专利的数字广播系统,它为30MHz以下频段的长波、中波、短波广播提供了数字化的标准。信道估计作为其关键技术对系统性能有着十分重要的影响。文章提出了适用于DRM接收机的时频域联合信道估计和均衡算法,仿真结果表明上述信道估计算法在DRM接收机中具有较好的性能。     

基于剩余充电电量的锂离子电池组容量快速估计方法

针对传统锂离子电池组容量确定方法存在的效率低、能耗高且只能离线应用等问题,提出一种基于电池剩余充电电量的锂离子电池组容量快速估计方法。首先,基于充电电压曲线一致性原理,以电池组内率先充电至充电截止电压的电池单体电压曲线为基准,通过电压曲线的平移缩放与线性插值计算出各单体电池的剩余充电电量与剩余充电时间,从而实现各单体电池的荷电状态(State of Charge, SOC)在线估计,在此基础上实现电池组容量的快速估计。其次,在电池单体模型的基础上建立电池组的仿真模型,并在全SOC区域上对模型参数进行分段辨识。通过所建立的仿真模型得到电池组的充放电曲线,并对电池组容量进行估计。最后,对4个单体串联而成的电池组进行充电试验。研究结果表明:仿真容量与估计容量误差为1.2%以内,验证了所提出的容量快速估计算法的有效性;利用所提方法估计出电池组容量与试验得到的电池组容量的误差为2.61%;该方法根据电池充电曲线的平移与缩放即可在线估计出电池组容量,可应用于新电池组容量的在线快速估计,能在保证3%估计误差的基础上将检测效率提高到传统方法的2倍以上。     

Data dependent input control for origin–destination demand estimation using observability analysis

In this paper, we address the observability issue of static O–D estimation based on link counts. Unlike most classic observability analyses that relied only on network topological relationships, our analysis incorporates the actual values of input parameters, thus including network operational relations as well. We first analyze possible mathematical properties of an O–D estimation problem with different data input. We then propose a modeling approach based on mixed-integer program for selecting model input that ensures observability and estimation quality. Through establishing a stronger connection between observability analysis and the corresponding estimation problem, the proposed method aims to improve estimation quality while reducing reliance on erroneous data.     

Modeling the impacts of mandatory and discretionary lane-changing maneuvers

In this paper, a novel mesoscopic multilane model is proposed to enable simultaneous simulation of mandatory and discretionary lane-changing behaviors to realistically capture multilane traffic dynamics. The model considers lane specific fundamental diagrams to simulate dynamic heterogeneous lane flow distributions on expressways. Moreover, different priority levels are identified according to different lane-changing motivations and the corresponding levels of urgency. Then, an algorithm is proposed to estimate the dynamic mandatory and discretionary lane-changing demands. Finally, the lane flow propagation is defined by the reaction law of the demand–supply functions, which can be regarded as an extension of the Incremental-Transfer and/or Priority Incremental-Transfer principles. The proposed mesoscopic multilane cell transmission model is calibrated and validated on a complex weaving section of the State Route 241 freeway in Orange County, California, showing both the positive and negative impact of lane changing maneuvers, e.g., balancing effect and capacity drop, respectively. Moreover, the empirical study verifies that the model requires no additional data other than the cell transmission model does. Thus, the proposed model can be deployed as a simple simulation tool for accessing dynamic mesoscopic multilane traffic state from data available to most management centers, and also the potential application in predicting the impact of traffic incident or lane control strategy.     

Validating and improving public transport origin–destination estimation algorithm using smart card fare data

Smart card data are increasingly used for transit network planning, passengers’ behaviour analysis and network demand forecasting. Public transport origin–destination (O–D) estimation is a significant product of processing smart card data. In recent years, various O–D estimation methods using the trip-chaining approach have attracted much attention from both researchers and practitioners. However, the validity of these estimation methods has not been extensively investigated. This is mainly because these datasets usually lack data about passengers’ alighting, as passengers are often required to tap their smart cards only when boarding a public transport service. Thus, this paper has two main objectives. First, the paper reports on the implementation and validation of the existing O–D estimation method using the unique smart card dataset of the South-East Queensland public transport network which includes data on both boarding stops and alighting stops. Second, the paper improves the O–D estimation algorithm and empirically examines these improvements, relying on this unique dataset. The evaluation of the last destination assumption of the trip-chaining method shows a significant negative impact on the matching results of the differences between actual boarding/alighting times and the public transport schedules. The proposed changes to the algorithm improve the average distance between the actual and estimated alighting stops, as this distance is reduced from 806 m using the original algorithm to 530 m after applying the suggested improvements.     

Dynamic demand estimation and prediction for traffic urban networks adopting new data sources

Nowadays, new mobility information can be derived from advanced traffic surveillance systems that collect updated traffic measurements, both in fixed locations and over specific corridors or paths. Such recent technological developments point to challenging and promising opportunities that academics and practitioners have only partially explored so far.The paper looks at some of these opportunities within the Dynamic Demand Estimation problem (DDEP). At first, data heterogeneity, accounting for different sets of data providing a wide spatial coverage, has been investigated for the benefit of off-line demand estimation. In an attempt to mimic the current urban networks monitoring, examples of complex real case applications are being reported where route travel times and route choice probabilities from probe vehicles are exploited together with common link traffic measurements.Subsequently, on-line detection of non-recurrent conditions is being recorded, adopting a sequential approach based on an extension of the Kalman Filter theory called Local Ensemble Transformed Kalman Filter (LETKF).Both the off-line and the on-line investigations adopt a simulation approach capable of capturing the highly nonlinear dependence between the travel demand and the traffic measurements through the use of dynamic traffic assignment models. Consequently, the possibility of using collected traffic information is enhanced, thus overcoming most of the limitations of current DDEP approaches found in the literature.     

State estimation in roll dynamics for commercial vehicles

Accurate lateral load transfer estimation plays an important role in improving the performance of the active rollover prevention system equipped in commercial vehicles. This estimation depends on the accurate prediction of roll angles for both the sprung and the unsprung subsystems. This paper proposes a novel computational method for roll-angle estimation in commercial vehicles employing sensors which are already used in a vehicle dynamic control system without additional expensive measurement units. The estimation strategy integrates two blocks. The first block contains a sliding-mode observer which is responsible for calculating the lateral tyre forces, while in the second block, the Kalman filter estimates the roll angles of the sprung mass and those of axles in the truck. The validation is conducted through MATLAB/TruckSim co-simulation. Based on the comparison between the estimated results and the simulation results from TruckSim, it can be concluded that the proposed estimation method has a promising tracking performance with low computational cost and high convergence speed. This approach enables a low-cost solution for the rollover prevention in commercial vehicles.