Efficient multiple model particle filtering for joint traffic state estimation and incident detection

This article proposes an efficient multiple model particle filter (EMMPF) to solve the problems of traffic state estimation and incident detection, which requires significantly less computation time compared to existing multiple model nonlinear filters. To incorporate the on ramps and off ramps on the highway, junction solvers for a traffic flow model with incident dynamics are developed. The effectiveness of the proposed EMMPF is assessed using a benchmark hybrid state estimation problem, and using synthetic traffic data generated by a micro-simulation software. Then, the traffic estimation framework is implemented using field data collected on Interstate 880 in California. The results show the EMMPF is capable of estimating the traffic state and detecting incidents and requires an order of magnitude less computation time compared to existing algorithms, especially when the hybrid system has a large number of rare models.     

凌津滩枢纽船闸下游近坝段航道整治研究

沅水梯级渠化最末一级凌津滩枢纽建成后,船闸下游引航道口门以下现行航道弯曲分汊、水浅流急、航道易淤积,船舶进出船闸困难,严重影响枢纽通航功能的发挥;在分析近坝河段航道碍航原因的基础上,通过水流和遥控自航船模、定床输沙物理模型试验,分别对左、右航线不同的工程整治方案进行研究优化;通过综合对比分析,废弃现行左线航道,选择右线开辟新航道,并针对存在的问题提出相关对策。     

汽车维修企业生产管理模式分析

介绍了汽车维修企业采用的两种生产管理模式，并作了较详缅比较，为汽车维修企业的管理者结合本企业的实际进行生产管理提供借鉴。     

采用回退法、迭算法优化牵引计算周期制动工况

当列车运行在长大下坡道上,通常采用空气制动的周期制动调整速度。为了满足两次空气制动间充风时间和列车空走时间的要求,常常会造成列车的出坡速度与下一坡段的限制速度速差不合理。针对长大下坡道上空气制动工况优化问题,采用工况初选策略自动计算到换坡点,然后进行进出坡检验。若列车的出坡速度不合理则采用不同的策略回退到回退基点,舍掉回退基点后的结果,将其前的结果作为计算的当前解,以此产生一个更优的新解,不断重复该过程直到出坡速度合理时停止迭代。最后得到的工况组合是优化的。     

交通事故急救中心的选址问题研究

较系统地研究了交通事故急救中心选址问题,阐述了急救中心选址的影响因素及选址步骤。运用一般运筹学理论并结合实际情况,建立了急救中心选址模型,并将选址模型分为定量选址模型和定性选址模型。最后通过模拟决策案例,验证所提出的交通事故急救中心选址模型的有效性。     

真空管道运输系统管道模型结构分析与实验内容

对真空管道运输(ETT)系统管道实验模型的整体结构和尺寸、主要功能部件的设置以及该管道实验模型建成后将进行的实验内容等进行了分析和介绍。     

沃纳模型在大学生敏感性问题调查中的应用

利用随机化回答技术的Warner模型对大学生考试作弊这一属性特征的敏感性问题进行了抽样调查，并针对出现的问题及应采取的有效措施进行探讨。     

A note on the use of correlation coefficients for assessing goodness-of-fit in spatial interaction models

The use of correlation coefficients to evaluate the accuracy of spatial interaction models is inappropriate unless such models have been fitted using least squares techniques. In other cases the correlation involves an implicit intercept value and a regression coefficient that may significantly modify the interaction model's estimates. Researchers have not acknowledged the role of these two parameters when the correlation is used. A generalized root mean square error is proposed as an alternative indicator of accuracy that may be used with any model.     

Modelling navigation in muddy areas through captive model tests

Many access channels and harbours suffer from sedimentation and formation of mud layers. To keep navigation safe and economic, extensive maintenance dredging is needed. Until now, the required level of dredging has always been determined by making use of the physical characteristics of the mud layer, which does not necessarily result in efficient dredging. Ship behaviour also matters, and knowledge of ship manoeuvrability can help to redefine the level of dredging required. A mathematical model of manoeuvring for simulation purposes, based on a comprehensive series of captive model tests, is presented, along with a selection of results.     

组合预测在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究

以某港口1996—2002年吞吐量为原始数据,按照“误差平方和最小”的准则,把一元线性回归模型和GM(1,1)模型组合起来,对某港口2004—2008年的吞吐量进行了组合预测。