道路交通统计生命价值测算模型及其验证

基于参数服从SB分布的混合Logit 模型进行道路交通统计生命价值的测算研究. 首先，结合意愿选择法和正交实验法设计出行路径选择调查问卷；然后，基于死亡风险系数服从对数正态分布和SB分布的混合Logit 模型，构建统计生命价值测算模型；接着以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象获得调查数据，并利用Monte Carlo 仿真方法进行模型参数标定；最后，对模型进行比较分析，并获得统计生命价值的测算值. 研究结果表明：死亡风险参数服从限制域为(0.0, 0.5)SB分布的混合Logit 模型，精确性更高且更合理；道路交通统计生命价值测算值为 105.76万元，这一结果可以作为道路交通安全项目经济评价的参考数据.     

A competing Markov model for cracking prediction on civil structures

Cracks on the surface of civil structures (e.g. pavement sections, concrete structures) progress in several formations and under different deterioration mechanisms. In monitoring practice, it is often that cracking type with its worst damage level is selected as a representative condition state, while other cracking types and their damage levels are neglected in records, remaining as hidden information. Therefore, the practice in monitoring has a potential to conceal with a bias selection process, which possibly result in not optimal intervention strategies. In overcoming these problems, our paper presents a non-homogeneous Markov hazard model, with competing hazard rates. Cracking condition states are classified in three types (longitudinal crack, horizontal crack, and alligator crack), with three respective damage levels. The dynamic selection of cracking condition states are undergone a competing process of cracking types and damage levels. We apply a numerical solution using Bayesian estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of high-order integration of complete likelihood function. An empirical study on a data-set of Japanese pavement system is presented to demonstrate the applicability and contribution of the model.     

Evolution of latent modal captivity and mode choice patterns for commuting trips: A longitudinal analysis using repeated cross-sectional datasets

This paper presents an investigation of the temporal evolution of commuting mode choice preference structures. It contributes to two specific modelling issues: latent modal captivity and working with multiple repeated crossectional datasets. In this paper latent modal captivity refers to captive reliance on a specific mode rather than all feasible modes. Three household travel survey datasets collected in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) over a ten-year time period are used for empirical modelling. Datasets collected in different years are pooled and separate year-specific scale parameters and coefficients of key variables are estimated for different years. The empirical model clearly explains that there have been significant changes in latent modal captivity and the mode choice preference structures for commuting in the GTHA. Changes have occurred in the unexplained component of latent captivities, in transportation cost perceptions, and in the scales of commuting mode choice preferences. The empirical model also demonstrates that pooling multiple repeated cross-sectional datasets is an efficient way of capturing behavioural changes over time. Application of the proposed mode choice model for practical policy analysis and forecasting will ensure accurate forecasting and an enhanced understanding of policy impacts.     

考虑交通小区相关性的小汽车拥有行为研究

为分析建成环境对家庭小汽车拥有的影响，考虑交通小区间的空间相关性，分别基于0-1 邻接矩阵、共同边界邻接矩阵及质心空间距离矩阵构建了层次Bayesian 模型，并与不考虑空间相关性的模型结果进行了对比.基于长春居民出行调查数据对模型参数进行估计，结果表明：交通小区间的空间相关性显著存在；以不考虑空间相关性的模型作为对比，基于公共边界邻接矩阵的层次Bayesian 模型拟合效果最优；在控制家庭层面社会经济变量后，居住密度、土地利用混合度、交叉口密度及公共交通站点密度均对家庭小汽车拥有具有显著的负向效应，表明通过优化城市建成环境策略可有效抑制小汽车拥有量的增长.     

浅谈宁波甬台温高速公路一边坡滑移工程的应急处置

浙江甬台温高速公路受强台风＂海葵＂影响,里程桩号为K1566处的边坡工程有明显变形破坏现象。基于现场调查的基础上,首先对产生边坡滑移原因进行了系统的分析研究,进而提出了切实可行的配套方案应用于边坡滑移处置,取得了良好的效果。     

大型客运站调机运用优化模型及算法

对铁路客运站调机运用进行科学合理的优化分析,对于提高客运站工作效率及保证旅客列车正点到发具有非常重要的意义。通过对客运站调机作业分析,建立客运站调机作业运用优化决策模型,将调机作业顺序模型转化为车辆数固定的、带时间窗口的车辆路径问题。采用模拟退火算法,实现调机运用的合理优化,并对模型和算法进行验证,得出优化效果明显的结论。     

阳安二线膨胀土填料改良研究

拟建阳安二线沿线膨胀土广泛分布,膨胀土不能直接作为路基填料,如果选取合格填料,运距较远、投资大,而且挖方地段的膨胀土又得弃掉、占地多,极不经济。通过选取现场两处代表性取土场取样,生石灰粉作添加剂,按4%、6%、8%、10%四个级别的掺入比做室内改良试验,试验表明:生石灰掺入比大于4%改良后,能达到消除膨胀性的目的,改良土有较好的水稳性和较高的强度,能满足设计要求;改良土较原膨胀土有较高的抗压强度和剪切强度,且随生石灰的掺入比增加而增大;得出了路基不同部位、不同膨胀级别膨胀土的生石灰粉掺入比,为阳安二线路基填料设计提供了理论依据。     

佛山地铁盾构隧道深厚软土地层预处理方法探究

穿越深厚软土地层的地铁盾构隧道在长期循环荷载作用下，面临不均匀沉降、结构变形超限及其引起的渗漏水、局部结构劣化等病害难题，影响隧道结构全寿命使用功能。以佛山地铁3号线工程为背景，从施工风险、环境影响、投资及运营期结构安全角度出发，对国内地铁工程常用的软土地层土体加固工法进行分析，提出采用格栅式三轴搅拌桩加固作为地层预处理措施。对2种三轴深层水泥搅拌桩加固布置方案进行数值计算分析，对比管片内力与变形差异，确定推荐方案，并通过工程实践进行验证。数值计算与现场监测结果表明： 1）盾构隧道穿越深厚淤泥层时的加固宽度应不小于拱腰外侧3 m，深度应进入下部较好持力层0.5 m左右； 2）与未加固地层相比，地基加固处理后隧道变形可减小30%~40%，结构未发生明显的应力集中。     

陡峭岩面双壁钢围堰稳定性分析及风险评估

根据某长江大桥索塔基础工程施工的主要特点,综合考虑4种水中基础围堰方案的优缺点,确定该索塔基础采用锚固柱桩方案;分析现有的钢围堰计算理论,基于钢围堰的施工工艺,研究该长江大桥索塔基础的钢围堰在封底混凝土对围堰侧压力、混凝土及钢围堰重力、钢围堰刃脚摩擦力、抗滑桩及封底混凝土抗剪承载力、流水压力作用下的力学特点,基于各工况的受力特点分别建立力学模型计算公式,构建综合考虑抗滑安全系数及风险后果影响的钢围堰整体抗滑风险模型。研究结果表明:根据《建筑基坑支护技术规程》(JGJ 120-2012)要求,钢围堰在第1,2,3工况时的抗滑安全系数分别为1.607,1.716,4.684,大于规范中1.3要求;该长江大桥在钢围堰施工阶段的总体风险水平为5.6381,风险等级为3级。