(Unintended) Transport impacts of an energy-environment policy: The case of CNG conversion of vehicles in Dhaka

Motor vehicles are one of the major sources of air pollution in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. The government took various policies to convert the petroleum vehicles on road to run on compressed natural gas (CNG), which allows both air quality improvements and energy security benefits. One of the market friendly policies to encourage the fuel switch was to increase the price differential between CNG and petrol and diesel. This has allowed a wide-scale adoption of CNG as the fuel of choice. However, several years into the policy, there is now a widespread belief among the policymakers that the CNG conversion may have increased car ownership and car travel due to their lower running costs, resulting in more congestion and a reversal of the strategy is on the cards. It is therefore important to test the hypothesis whether CNG conversion had genuinely increased car ownership and car travel in Dhaka city. This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey and an econometric intervention analysis to understand the impact of CNG conversion on car ownership and car travel in Dhaka. Attention is also given to disentangle the self-selection and price-induced travel effects of CNG conversion. Results show that ownership did not increase, but travel of on-road vehicles increased due to the CNG policy. However, additional congestion costs are still around one half of the health benefits brought about by the policy.     

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures

ABSTRACT

A dynamic model for marginal cost pricing of port infrastructures links costs to system performance by combining a power-law function with time-dependent queueing analysis. Additionally, the model incorporates the marginal cost of capacity, including the effects of economies of scale. This allows the calculation of the marginal cost price under a dynamic framework. The model accounts for nonlinear behaviour of port demand, which is sensitive to price and service levels. The effects over time of cost and service levels on the port’s operational performance are quantified. The proposed model allows determining the optimal timing for capacity investment. The model is a starting point for the application of marginal cost pricing to ports. However, for practical application of such pricing method it is necessary to apply a system’s approach, as productivity and costs must be assessed at the terminal’s component level. This should allow the derivation of a marginal cost function at the terminal’s component level.     

基于集对分析的道路交通拥堵判定

基于集对分析原理提出了道路交通拥堵判定的新方法——集对分析法,给出了集对分析法的基本思路和交通拥堵判定步骤。该方法考虑了交通状态分级标准的模糊性,同时避免了差异不确定系数的取值,应用于成都市某路段交通拥堵状态的判定,结果表明,该方法概念清晰、结构简单、计算简单、易操作、可行有效。     

Structural response of a flexible pipe with damaged tensile armor wires under pure tension

This article studies the structural response of a 6.0” flexible pipe under pure tension considering intact and damaged conditions. In the damaged condition, several wires of the tensile armor layers are assumed to be broken. A three-dimensional nonlinear finite element (FE) model devoted to analyze the local mechanical response of flexible pipes is employed in this study. This model is capable of representing each tensile armor wire and, therefore, localized defects, including total rupture, may be adequately represented. Results from experimental tests validate the FE predictions and indicate a reduction in the axial stiffness of the pipe, a non-uniform redistribution of forces among the remaining intact wires of the damaged tensile armor layers and high stress concentrations in the wires near the broken ones. Moreover, the FE model indicates that significant normal bending stresses may arise in the pressure armor and inner carcass due to an uneven pressure distribution on these layers. Finally, the results obtained are employed to estimate the pull out capacity of the studied flexible pipe.     

Modeling the behavioral determinants of travel behavior: An application of latent transition analysis

This paper applies the relatively new method of latent class transition analysis to explore the notion that qualitative differences in travel behavior patterns are substantively meaningful and therefore relevant from explanatory point of view. For example, because the bicycle may function as an important access and egress mode, a car user who also (occasionally) uses the bicycle may be more likely to switch to a public transit profile than someone who only uses the car. Data from the Dutch mobility panel are used to inductively reveal travel behavior patterns and model transitions in these patterns over time. Additionally, the effects of seven exogenous variables, including two important life events (i.e. moving house and changing jobs), on cluster membership and the transition probabilities are assessed. The results show that multiple-mode users compared to single-mode users are more likely to switch from one behavioral profile to another. In addition, age, the residential environment, moving house and changing jobs have strong influences on the transition probabilities between the revealed behavioral patterns over time.     

Using automated walking gait analysis for the identification of pedestrian attributes

Collecting microscopic pedestrian behavior and characteristics data is important for optimizing the design of pedestrian facilities for safety, efficiency, and comfortability. This paper provides a framework for the automated classification of pedestrian attributes such as age and gender based on information extracted from their walking gait behavior. The framework extends earlier work on the automated analysis of gait parameters to include analysis of the gait acceleration data which can enable the quantification of the variability, rhythmic pattern and stability of pedestrian’s gait. In this framework, computer vision techniques are used for the automatic detection and tracking of pedestrians in an open environment resulting in pedestrian trajectories and the speed and acceleration dynamic profiles. A collection of gait features are then derived from those dynamic profiles and used for the classification of pedestrian attributes. The gait features include conventional gait parameters such as gait length and frequency and dynamic parameters related to gait variations and stability measures. Two different techniques are used for the classification: a supervised k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) algorithm and a newly developed semi-supervised spectral clustering. The classification framework is demonstrated with two case studies from Vancouver, British Columbia and Oakland, California. The results show the superiority of features sets including gait variations and stability measures over features relying only on conventional gait parameters. For gender, correct classification rates (CCR) of 80% and 94% were achieved for the Vancouver and Oakland case studies, respectively. The classification accuracy for gender was higher in the Oakland case which only considered pedestrians walking alone. Pedestrian age classification resulted in a CCR of 90% for the Oakland case study.     

断层破碎带隧道衬砌静力稳定性分析

结合一实际工程,选取包括断层破碎带和断层影响带在内的沿隧道纵向300m的计算区域,用八节点六面块体单元将计算区域离散化,采用三维弹塑性静力有限元法模拟分析隧道各个施工阶段,以及建成后围岩和衬砌的受力与变形状态。通过分析比较可知:(1)断层破碎带处的坑道变形和围岩塑性区均明显比非断层破碎带处要大;(2)由于断层破碎带的影响,初期支护、二次衬砌内力的增加幅度约为10%～30%。     

兰州市五人制足球运动开展现状调查分析

本文运用文献资料法、专家访谈法、问卷调查法、数理统计法对兰州市五人制足球运动的开展规模、教练员情况、场地设施、社会参与人群状况等问题进行调查分析,提出了针对性建议,旨在为进一步推动兰州市五人制足球的健康快速发展,同时促进兰州市足球运动的普及与提高尽一份力。     

基于瞬态法的行李箱盖动态干涉研究

行车过程中行李箱盖在路面激励载荷作用下发生振动,当振动量超过行李箱盖和车身分缝间距时,就会发生干涉,导致漆膜破裂。文章利用有限元方法对汽车行李箱盖进行瞬态响应分析,并对其进行优化,最终经过台架试验和道路试验验证方案有效。为行李箱盖总成设计开发提供理论依据,并完善行李箱盖设计规范。