Predicting the adoption of connected autonomous vehicles: A new approach based on the theory of diffusion of innovations

On the grounds that individuals heavily rely on the information that they receive from their peers when evaluating adoption of a radical innovation, this paper proposes a new approach to forecast long-term adoption of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs). The concept of resistance is employed to explain why individuals typically tend to defer the adoption of an innovation. We assume that there exists a social network among individuals through which they communicate based on certain frequencies. In addition, individuals can be subject to media advertisement based on certain frequencies. An individual’s perceptions are dynamic and change over time as the individual is exposed to advertisement and communicates with satisfied and dissatisfied adopters. We also explicitly allow willingness-to-pay (WTP) to change as a result of peer-to-peer communication. An individual decides to adopt when (i) there is a need for a new vehicles; (ii) his/her WTP is greater than CAV price; and (iii) his/her overall impression about CAVs reaches a cutoff value. Applicability of the proposed approach is shown using a survey of employees of the University of Memphis. Our results show that the automobile fleet will be near homogenous in about 2050 only if CAV prices decrease at an annual rate of 15% or 20%. We find that a 6-month pre-introduction marketing campaign may have no significant impact on adoption trend. Marketing is shown to ignite CAV diffusion but its effect is capped. CAV market share will be close to 100% only if all adopters are satisfied with their purchases; therefore, the probability that an individual becomes a satisfied adopter plays an important role in the trend of adoption. The effect of the latter probability is more pronounced as time goes by and is also more prominent when CAV price reduces at greater rates. Some caveats may be inserted when considering the study results as the findings are subject to sample bias and data limitations.     

Catenary riser sliding and rolling on seabed during induced lateral movement

Catenary risers have an interaction zone with the seabed, usually referenced as flowline. Movements in this region can be induced by sea currents and large offsets in floating unit, leading to touchdown position changes and affecting internal loads along riser length. In this work the contact flowline-seabed is modeled including sliding and rolling friction. Case studies involving large offsets in floating unit and lateral sea currents are solved to better understand the consequences of possible rolling and large sliding. The riser is modeled using a geometrically-exact finite element beam model. The contact is addressed with a new technique to include rotation movements from underlying beam models. This leads to global riser models including complex kinematics, being able to represent scenarios with alternating sliding/rolling and its consequences on internal loads of riser structure. A parametric study is performed to measure the influence of the friction coefficient in tension and torsion along typical flexible pipe and steel pipe catenary risers.     

Closed-form multiclass cell transmission model enhanced with overtaking,lane-changing,and first-in first-out properties

A novel multiclass macroscopic model is proposed in this article. In order to enhance first-in, first-out property (FIFO) and transmission function in the multiclass traffic modeling, a new multiclass cell transmission model with FIFO property (herein called FM-CTM) is extended from its prior multiclass cell transmission model (M-CTM). Also, to enhance its analytical compactness and resultant computational convenience, FM-CTM is formulated in this paper as a set of closed-form matrix equations. The objective is to improve the accuracy of traffic state estimation by enforcing FIFO property when a fast vehicle cannot overtake a slow vehicle due to a limitation of a single-lane road. Moreover, the proposed model takes into account a different priority for vehicles of each class to move forward through congested road conditions, and that makes the flow calculation independent from their free-flow speeds. Some hypothetical and real-world freeway networks with a constant or varying number of lanes are selected to verify FM-CTM by comparing with M-CTM and the conventional CTM. Observed densities of VISSIM and real-world dataset of I-80 are selected to compare with the simulated densities from the three CTMs. The numerical results show that FM-CTM outperforms the other two models by 15% of accuracy measures in most cases. Therefore, the proposed model is expected to be well applicable to the road network with a mixed traffic and varying number of lanes.     

桥墩及桩基形式对墩底平转施工转盘设计的影响

以新建福厦(福州—厦门)高速铁路17500 t转体刚构为背景,采用实体有限元方法分析了不同桥墩类型及桩基布置对墩底平转转体中转盘受力的影响,并对桥墩及桩基进行了优化。结果表明:实体墩对上转盘受力最有利,其次是空心墩,最不利的是双薄壁墩;增加墩底实体段能够有效降低空心墩、双薄壁墩上转盘的主拉应力;随着墩底实体段高度的增加,主拉应力降低的幅度逐渐变小;球铰正下方有桩基时对下转盘底部受力更加有利;距离球铰中心越远,桩基受力越小,适当增加中桩桩径,可使各桩基应力状态更加均衡。     

Dynamic loading history and collapse analysis of the pipe during deepwater S-lay operation

In the deepwater S-lay operations depending on the required stinger radius and rollers configuration, relatively large plastic deformation is induced when the pipe passes over the stinger, under the combined loadings of bending, axial tension, roller reaction force and the pipelay vessel motion. The resulting plastic deformation does not vanish after the pipe leaves the stinger. It accumulates until the pipe reaches the seabed. The inherited residual deformation might reduce the collapse capacity of the pipe under the external pressure loading. The present paper investigates the dynamic loading history of the pipe during the S-lay operation based on a test-verified finite element model, and then calculates the residual plastic deformation of the pipe cross-section after the pipe reaches the seabed. Finally, the nonlinear collapse analysis is implemented based on the modified RIKS method to evaluate the capacity of the installation-induced deformed pipe. The results confirm that the deepwater S-lay operation will lead to obvious plastic deformation of the pipe, which decreases the pipe collapse capacity to some extent.     

桩基建模方法对自升式钻井平台动力响应的影响

随着海洋油气开采作业水深的不断增加,海洋平台固有频率随之降低,易与相同频率成分的波浪产生共振,因此对平台动力响应特性研究是非常有必要的,而桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中发挥着关键作用。以某400英尺自升式钻井平台研究对象,基于等效建模的思想,分别建立了固支桩基、铰接桩基、线性弹簧桩基及非线性弹簧桩基四种有限元模型,并对其进行静力分析、模态分析及瞬态动力学分析,通过对比得到的振动频率、动力放大因子及波流惯性力,得出弹簧桩基模型在平台动力响应分析中的有效性及合理性结论。     

基于基准有限元模型的箱梁TMD振动控制研究

针对高架桥梁结构引起的振动噪声问题,研究TMD控制箱梁结构振动的特性。为了获得精准的箱梁有限元模型,首先以铁路32 m简支箱梁桥为原型,按10:1的几何相似比设计制作简支箱梁缩尺试验模型,应用ANSYS软件建立初始动力有限元模型;对有限元模型模态分析与试验模型模态测试得到的自由模态信息进行误差分析,并采用基于灵敏度分析的模型修正技术对初始动力有限元模型弹性模量和密度进行修正,得到基准有限元模型,误差确认结果显示修正后的有限元模型更精准地反应箱梁的振动特性;进一步利用基准有限元模型,开展TMD控制简支箱梁桥振动的研究,研究结果表明TMD对于抑制桥梁竖向共振有很好的效果。     

Multi-criteria optimization of traffic signals: Mobility,safety, and environment

Two-dimensional multi-objective optimizations have been used for decades for the problems in traffic engineering although only few times so far in the optimization of signal timings. While the other engineering and science disciplines have utilized visualization of 3-dimensional Pareto fronts in the optimization studies, we have not seen many of those concepts applied to traffic signal optimization problems. To bridge the gap in the existing knowledge this study presents a methodology where 3-dimensional Pareto Fronts of signal timings, which are expressed through mobility, (surrogate) safety, and environmental factors, are optimized by use of an evolutionary algorithm. The study uses a segment of 5 signalized intersections in West Valley City, Utah, to test signal timings which provide a balance between mobility, safety and environment. In addition, a set of previous developed signal timing scenarios, including some of the Connected Vehicle technologies such as GLOSA, were conducted to evaluate the quality of the 3-dimensional Pareto front solutions. The results show success of 3-dimensinal Pareto fronts moving towards optimality. The resulting signal timing plans do not show large differences between themselves but all improve on the signal timings from the field, significantly. The commonly used optimization of standard single-objective functions shows robust solutions. The new set of Connected Vehicle technologies also shows promising benefits, especially in the area of reducing inter-vehicular friction. The resulting timing plans from two optimization sets (constrained and unconstrained) show that environmental and safe signal timings coincide but somewhat contradict mobility. Further research is needed to apply similar concepts on a variety of networks and traffic conditions before generalizing findings.     

Determination of limiting cavity depths for offshore spudcan foundations in a spatially varying seabed

The importance of accurate prediction of limiting cavity depths during offshore spudcan foundations installation has been variously highlighted in the literature. Nonetheless, most of the previous research is deterministic in nature and confined to homogenous soils. Since offshore clayey soils can be highly spatially variable, there is a practical need to take proper account of the spatial variability in the prediction of limiting cavity depths. In a bid to remedy this situation, large deformation finite element calculations combined with three-dimensional random fields were repeatedly conducted in this study within a Monte-Carlo framework. The continuous penetration of a spudcan initiated from surface was explicitly modeled until a full-localized flow-around mechanism was observed. Spatial variability was found to clearly affect the soil back-flow and thereby the limiting cavity depth, the latter of which takes a range of values that can be approximately modeled as a log-normal distribution. Characteristic limiting cavity depths at various probability levels were ascertained. An algebraic expression was proposed to explicitly predict the characteristic limiting cavity depths in random soils from the fractile. Particular attention was paid to the lower and upper 5% characteristic values, which are likely to be useful for reliability-based design.     

基于Ansys的矩形加筋平盖封头强度评定

将有限元方法与分析设计相结合,利用有限元分析软件Ansys对一种矩形加筋平盖封头进行强度评定。本文首先介绍瓶盖封头结构的改进。然后建立有限元模型,并进行应力求解。结果表明,此加筋平盖封头满足强度要求,与普通平盖封头相比,减小了平盖的厚度,降低了结构总重量,对平盖封头的结构改进设计具有一定指导作用。