Measurement of intention to travel: Considering the effect of telecommunications on trips

Mobility, one of the key concepts to evaluate the effect of a transportation policy such as TDM and mobility management as well as to analyze the problems such as social exclusion, must be measured by how much of an intention to make a trip can be realized, not merely by how many trips are available. The advent of new communication tools such as the Internet and mobile phones has allowed one to accomplish certain tasks that previously required a trip. This new situation has brought up a discussion over the necessity to incorporate telecommunications as an aspect of mobility. Aware of such discussions, we analyzed the relationship between the number of trips and telecommunications based on the data we collected on trips, telecommunications, and activities, and found some significant correlations. Our study which used an ordered regression model found several significant relationships between the individual attributes and the number of trips/telecommunications. We formulated a model which assumes the latent factors among the trips and telecommunications. In addition, we found that the latent factors construable as intentions to trips and telecommunications could be measured better by e-mails than by trips. These results indicate that measuring mobility requires the inclusion of information about telecommunications.     

磁悬浮列车转向架的结构解耦分析

为分析磁悬浮列车转向架的结构解耦功能,基于D-H变换建立了转向架正向运动学方程;通过分析,得到了运动学逆解的解析公式。在此基础上,计算了列车转弯时通过缓和曲线的解耦能力。     

粤西地区铁路网规划方案研究

为推动粤西地区铁路高质量发展,以湛江、茂名、阳江三市为对象,对粤西地区路网规划方案进行研究.首先,对粤西地区既有铁路网现状规模和能力适应性进行分析,探索粤西地区铁路网存在的主要问题;在此基础上,对粤西地区铁路客货运需求进行预测,结合粤西地区铁路发展诉求,提出铁路网发展目标及规划方案,形成"一轴、三极、五辐射、多支线"的...     

复合材料薄壁杆件非线性扭转分析

考虑几何非线性的影响,建立了在拉、压、弯、扭组合变形下复合材料薄壁杆件理论.重点对杆件进行非线性扭转分析.由给出的等效本构方程和总势能泛函,根据最小势能原理导出了所给问题的平衡控制方程和相应边界条件.讨论了该方程和边界条件的求解.     

Calculation of wave and current loads on launching offshore jacket

1 Introduction1 It’s very complicated to calculate and analyze the waveand current loads on naval architectures since the seacondition is uncertain and complicated and thedeterminants vary from different form types anddimensions. The induced wave loads o…     

工程结构主动控制中Riccati方程求解的改进

由于建筑结构刚度和质量通常较大,对于Riccati方程的传统求解方法,常会发生计算溢出失效.为了避免该问题,本文对Riccati方程的求解进行了改进,并做了误差控制,表明本文的求解,是一种比较实用的改进方法.     

基于数据修正的改进型灰色-RBF网络预测

针对既呈趋势性,又呈波动性的时间序列难以预测的问题, 提出了基于失真数据的修正的改进型灰色-RBF网络预测模型及算法.即用改进型灰色模型提取趋势性因素,用神经网络处理波动性因素,另尝试性的提出还须排除异常干扰因素,即查找和修正序列的异常数据.并以南昌铁路车站旅客发送量预测为例,验证了算法的有效性,收到很好的预测效果.     

两类时滞积分不等式及其应用

本文给出了两类时滞积分不等式,它们是Gronwau不等式以及Bellman-Bihari不等 式的推广。然后以此为工具,讨论了它们在时滞volterro积分方程和高阶泛函微分方 程中的若干应用。      

自驾车旅游交通行为分析模型

随着我国私人小汽车保有量的迅速增加和旅游业的繁荣,自驾车旅游交通需求不断增加。由于旅游交通需求与传统通勤交通需求有很大的差异,在进行旅游交通规划时,必须对旅游交通需求进行分析。从行为分析的角度,在对旅游交通行为进行调查分析的基础上,利用Logit模型,分别建立了全国和北京市的周末自驾车旅游出行行为模型。分析结果表明：收入是影响个体自驾车旅游出行的主要因素。     

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以道路子网为研究对象,采用Elman神经网络实现道路网多断面交通流短时预测. 首先通过提取交通流空间特性对道路网进行划分,降低道路网整体分析复杂度及解空间维数,提高交通流预测的计算精度和效率;其次以实时采集的交通流数据为基础,并以重构的交通流时间序列作为输入,采用Elman神经网络实现道路网多断面交通流同时预测;最后,基于城市快速路多断面交通流量数据对短时交通流预测方法进行验证,并与BP神经网络预测结果进行对比分析. 验证结果表明,本文提出的道路网划分方法能够划分出满足预测需求的子路网,在划分的子路网上,应用Elman神经网络能够实现道路网多断面同时预测,且预测效果优于BP神经网络.