Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail demand: A hybrid approach combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and gray support vector machine with real-world applications in China

Short-term forecasting of high-speed rail (HSR) passenger flow provides daily ridership estimates that account for day-to-day demand variations in the near future (e.g., next week, next month). It is one of the most critical tasks in high-speed passenger rail planning, operational decision-making and dynamic operation adjustment. An accurate short-term HSR demand prediction provides a basis for effective rail revenue management. In this paper, a hybrid short-term demand forecasting approach is developed by combining the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and grey support vector machine (GSVM) models. There are three steps in this hybrid forecasting approach: (i) decompose short-term passenger flow data with noises into a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend term; (ii) predict each IMF using GSVM calibrated by the particle swarm optimization (PSO); (iii) reconstruct the refined IMF components to produce the final predicted daily HSR passenger flow, where the PSO is also applied to achieve the optimal refactoring combination. This innovative hybrid approach is demonstrated with three typical origin–destination pairs along the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR in China. Mean absolute percentage errors of the EEMD-GSVM predictions using testing sets are 6.7%, 5.1% and 6.5%, respectively, which are much lower than those of two existing forecasting approaches (support vector machine and autoregressive integrated moving average). Application results indicate that the proposed hybrid forecasting approach performs well in terms of prediction accuracy and is especially suitable for short-term HSR passenger flow forecasting.     

就地水泥冷再生施工技术在路面大中修养护中的应用

结合国道202线吉林省磐石段路面维修工程,对冷再生施工工艺及其性能指标进行了探讨,为就地冷再生技术在吉林省的推广应用提供参考经验。工程实践证明,旧路面就地冷再生技术具有成本低、工期短、节约材料、不损坏路基、消除污染保护环境、交通安全等特点,对于节约自然资源、保护生态环境具有极大的意义。     

大跨连续刚构桥施工线形控制技术

通过对大跨径预应力混凝土连续刚构梁桥施工过程中结构的线形测试,经过合理结构分析计算,研究其施工过程中的线形变化规律,并根据现场实测数据和采用有效控制方法,给出合理的立模标高,使大桥顺利合龙。     

大坡度引水隧道无轨运输出渣方式的应用

辽西北供水工程11#支洞，断面小、坡度大，出渣运输方式是决定工期的关键控制因素。采用无轨运输出渣方式，存在以下问题：隧道纵坡坡度较大，运输渣车爬坡困难、存在严重的安全隐患；断面小，自卸车在陡坡上运行和洞内调头困难等。对此采取扩大隧道开挖断面、设置避车洞，改装车辆、确保车辆制动的可靠性；加强安全管理措施等。实践证明，采用无轨运输方式出渣具有节约工期、经济效益显著等特点，可根据实际工况加以选用。     

广东省高职院校图书馆信息资源共建共享问题探讨

分析广东省高职院校图书馆信息资源共建共享的必要性、可行性及当前所面临的问题，并提出信息资源共建共享的基本对策。     

基于哲学的幸福观思考

关于幸福的理解复杂多元,但对于"幸福是人的需求得到满足时的快乐感受和体验"这一点,是基本得到思想家们的共识的。根据幸福具有的主观性与客观性相统一的特点,幸福观并非一成不变,而是在不同的历史时期都是不同的,会随着社会变革而发生变化。所以,在现代文明日新月异的条件下我们要变革旧的、落后的幸福观,形成新的、先进的、适合于社会发展趋势、具有时代新特征的幸福观。当代社会新幸福观的哲学定位应是:物质幸福与精神幸福的统一;个人幸福与家庭幸福、社会整体幸福的统一;眼前幸福与长远幸福的统一;幸福目标与实现幸福手段的统一。     

Development and evaluation of a statistically reliable traffic counting program

This paper reviews the existing procedures to compute the seasonal factors, growth factors, and the number of automatic traffic recorder stations (ATRs) for developing a statistically reliable traffic counting program. The review is based on, (i) theoretical evaluation of the procedures, (ii) analysis of the results obtained from applying these procedures to extensive real life data, and (iii) experience of past researchers with these methods. The paper primarily deals with existing statistical procedures for determining seasonal factors, since it is believed that these factors play the most important role in estimating Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADTs) from short counts. The procedure of cluster analysis (which is most commonly used to determine seasonal factors) is critically reviewed. The shortcomings of this method motivated the development of a different statistical procedure, based on regression analysis, to determine seasonal factors. It is shown that this newly developed method gives better results than the cluster analysis techniques. Furthermore, separate sections are dedicated to a thorough analysis of determination of number of ATR stations and computation of growth factors.     

吊具垂缆防打结技术的研究

吊具垂缆是吊具各机构电源及信号、也是吊具状态信号反馈至PLC的唯一通道.为防止吊具垂缆打结和出筐,发生意外损坏,进行了改革.通过分析找出故障原因,采用增加垂缆筐高度的方法,取得良好效果.     

Understanding Recreational Boater Attitudes to Zoning in a Proposed Marine Protected Area

Although the success of marine protected areas (MPAs) and associated zoning schemes is largely dependent on stakeholder acceptance and support, there have been relatively few studies examining the response of recreational stakeholders to MPA proposals. This study investigates the response of recreational boaters to a proposed MPA in British Columbia, Canada. Using a structured questionnaire (n = 543) and a focus group (n = 6), the research examines the level of support for the concept of marine zoning and identifies key factors influencing support or opposition. Results indicate that a small majority of recreational boaters support the concept of marine zoning, but that there are areas of concern that ought to be addressed as MPA implementation proceeds. Support for zoning was strongly related to perceived benefits, particularly environmental benefits. Furthermore, perceived benefits overall were found to outweigh concerns as determinants of recreational boater support for zoning. Major dimensions of opposition included perceptions of over-regulation, loss of access for boating, and mistrust of the government. A suggestion is that such concerns may be mitigated through focused communication and meaningful involvement of boaters in the zoning process.     

国外公路工程标准的法律地位研究

公路工程标准的法律地位是近年来公路工程标准化工作者和一些司法人士热议的问题之一.鉴于此,通过分析美国、日本、欧盟等国家和组织的技术标准和技术法规之间的关系,介绍国外公路工程相关法律法规体系,探讨公路工程标准的法律地位,可为我国公路工程行业标准规范的管理提供参考.