新疆国际旅游客源量的线性组合预测

利用新疆历年来的统计数据,探讨线性组合预侧方法在新疆境外客流量预侧中的应用 ,为新疆维吾尔自治区政府制定旅游发展规划提供科学依据.     

航道网规划多级模糊综合评价

为解决目前航道网规划评价中存在主观影响因素过多,各评价指标权重不确定性等问题,分析了航道网布局影响因素,结合层次分析法,提出了航道网规划方案的多目标、多级模糊综合评判方法。运用层次分析法确定各层次评价指标的权重,运用模糊统计方法确定非定量指标的隶属度,对于定量评价指标的隶属度,则按效益型指标、适中型指标和成本型指标分别予以确定。对苏州市航道网规划方案评价结果表明,该方法可客观地给出反映航道网实际情况的量化指标,能够对航道网规划效果作出合理的定性评价。     

多年冻土区公路病害模糊专家预测方法

为了预测多年冻土区新建公路病害路段, 辅助设计者在设计阶段进行合理设计, 以模糊专家系统为基础提出了多年冻土区公路病害预测方法。以病害度为分析指标, 以青藏公路某一路段作为研究对象, 定性分析了道路病害的影响因子。根据实际病害数据, 将青藏公路调查路段的病害度分为3级。结合青藏公路多年年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率等病害数据, 建立了多年冻土区公路病害路段识别的模糊专家系统。运用MATLAB中的Fuzzy Logic Toolbox工具, 将各种影响因子作为输入变量, 对10组多年冻土区等距路段进行了病害度计算, 并运用SPSS软件对计算病害度与实际病害度进行对比分析。分析结果表明: 随着年平均地温、含冰量、冻胀率的增大, 道路病害率上升; 计算病害度与实际病害度相关性达到0.751。可见, 运用模糊专家系统对多年冻土区公路病害路段预测具有良好效果。     

物流园区建设序列的多阶段多指标决策模型

针对物流园区建设序列问题的多阶段多指标决策和投资优化实质,本文以熵权和理想解法为基础,结合Delphi 法和0-1型整数规划,提出了一个物流园区建设序列的多阶段多指标决策模型,比较好地解决了物流园区建设序列决策中多阶段多指标评价问题和投资优化问题。     

城市轨道交通乘客服务水平评价方法研究

本着系统性、科学性、可行性、导向性的原则,从运行性能、方便性能、舒适性能、经济性能、安全保障性能等五大方面考虑,构建了轨道交通乘客服务水平评价指标体系.在借鉴常规公交评价方法研究成果的基础上,根据轨道交通服务的特点,选择频数统计法确定评价指标权重,基于模糊数学理论建立了该指标体系的模糊综合评价模型.最后,运用该指标体系和模型对某轨道交通线路进行算例分析.结果表明,该评价方法科学合理,可操作性强.     

Future electricity demand from battery‐powered vehicles

An important decision faced by airline schedulers is how to adapt the flight schedule and aircraft assignment to unforeseen perturbations in an established schedule. In the face of unforeseen aircraft delays, schedulers have to decide which flights to delay, and when delays become excessive, which to cancel. Current scheduling models deal with simple decision problems of delay or cancellation, but not with both simultaneously. But in practice the optimal decision may involve results from the integration of both flight cancellations and delays. In Part I of this paper, a quadratic programming model for the integration decision problem is given. The model can formulate the integration of flight cancellations and delays as well as some special cases, such as the ferrying of surplus aircraft and the possibility of swapping different types of aircraft. In this paper, based on the special structure of the model, an effective algorithm is presented, sufficient computational experiments are conducted and some results are reported. These show that we can expect to obtain a sufficiently good solution in terms of reasonable CPU time.     

Dynamic location: an iconic model to synchronize temporal and spatial transportation data

This paper describes a model to synchronize the management and query of temporal and spatially referenced transportation data in geographic information systems (GIS). The model employs a method referred to as dynamic location, which facilitates spatial intersect queries from geographic shapes without the use of topological relationships. This is the inverse of how dynamic segmentation works in GIS. In contrast to dynamic segmentation, dynamic location stores geometry as an object within a single database field. This is an efficient, precise iconic model superseding the need for data decomposition into a complex set of tables. As an object model, the dynamic location process lends itself to high performance in an Internet, data-intensive, enterprise environment. Linear events are stored as {x, y} features, and not referenced to any route system. Route systems are built from {x, y, m} values (m for measure) and serve as number lines for mathematical operations. Any {x, y} object can then be referenced to either the Cartesian grid or any selected number line. This method offers the benefits of linear referencing, while making full use of a stable geodetic datum. Combinations of any {x, y} events may be placed over any {x, y, m} number line (route) and an intersect determined by looking through stacked {x, y, m} vertices of the coincident shapes. Since both geometry and shape reside in the same record, the use of “begin” and “end” dates facilitates full spatial and temporal version control. From a business process perspective, this creates a spatially enabled database, pulling GIS business functions back into the information technology mainstream.     

模糊PID控制器在船舶试验台横摇位置系统中的应用

减摇水舱是一种减小船舶横摇的重要装置,建立船舶试验台是对其进行研究的主要手段.文章针对两自由度船舶试验台横摇位置系统建模中忽略的参数不确定及非线性环节等因素,设计了一种基于模糊逻辑的PID控制器.该控制器能够实现PID控制参数的实时调节,实验研究表明其在实际系统中具有优于常规PID控制器的性能.     

Lane-harmonised passenger car equivalents for heterogeneous expressway traffic

In order to account for variations in traffic composition during traffic analysis, passenger car equivalent (PCE) factors are used to convert flow rates of various vehicle classes into flow rates in terms of passenger car units (PCUs). Earlier studies have developed various methods to estimate PCE values but only a few of them are based on uninterrupted traffic flow, particularly for flow regimes with heterogeneous traffic where differential (lower) speed limits are imposed on commercial vehicles. This paper proposes a lane-harmonisation approach, which leverages on the high variation in traffic composition across the lanes, to estimate PCE factors for urban expressways. Multiple linear regression is used and the PCE factors obtained for motorcycles, light goods vehicles, and heavy goods vehicles are 0.65, 1.53, and 2.75, respectively. The estimated capacity flow rate after the application of the obtained PCE factors is around 2200 PCUs per hour per lane.     

重载列车优化操纵算法设计与仿真

文章针对电力牵引重载列车的运行特点,对重载列车的优化操纵问题进行了分析研究,设计了一种基于模糊预测和再优化的列车运行控制算法。该算法先使用模糊逻辑控制器产生操纵队列,预测列车未来一段区间的运行情况,然后对产生的操纵队列以安全、节能为目标进行反复优化。算法通过对操纵队列的有重合区间局部寻优来保证得到近似全局最优解。文章使用列车牵引计算模型对算法进行了仿真验证,结果表明该算法产生的操纵队列基本达到了重载列车运行要求。