基于有限元及试验对舵系无键连接的可靠性分析

以舵系的实际工况和参数为依据,采用无键连接的方式来优化舵系的连接,并利用有限元分析舵系新型无键连接的可靠性,通过有限元计算在不同工况下无键连接方式的应变及应力的分布初步验证了该连接方式的可靠性;同时以舵系实际工况的弯矩、扭矩和过载为依据建立了舵系无键连接的实验平台来验证有限元分析的结果。实验数据和分析结果表明:通过液压螺母在舵系上形成的预加载荷使舵柄和舵杆之间产生适当的静摩擦力,该静摩擦力可以提供舵系所需要的弯矩、扭矩并能够保证超载条件下舵系工作状态的稳定性及可靠性。     

含缺陷压力管道安全评定方法研究的现状与发展

含缺陷压力管道安全评定的方法较多,主要有极限载荷控制的塑性失效准则、断裂力学J积分的评定方法、英国R6双判据准则评定方法、美国ASME规范评定方法、参数不确定性缺陷的安全评定方法等.文章对这些方法加以简要的概括和评述,并分析了有些方法之间的区别与联系,同时指出工程化、可靠性和智能化是当前含缺陷压力管道安全评定方法的发展趋向.     

管道疲劳寿命的可靠性分析

针对管道的疲劳失效分析,以概率论为基础,结合确定性的疲劳断裂力学估算方法,推导了管道的疲劳裂纹扩展寿命的计算公式.考虑到主要评定参数:初始裂纹尺寸、工况载荷、断裂韧性、机械强度、系数等的不确定性和随机性,应用蒙特卡罗模拟法对这些具有某种特定分布的随机变量进行了随机抽样计算.并利用数值积分法编制了计算机程序,求出在一定可靠度和置信度下的疲劳寿命,并与理论计算方法求得的疲劳寿命进行了比较.还比较了不同初始裂纹尺寸和断裂韧性对疲劳寿命的影响,并给出了算例.分析结果表明:蒙特卡罗模拟法真实地反映评定参数客观存在的不确定性,克服了确定性评定方法的缺点,具有良好的工程指导意义.     

The effect of crowding on public transit user travel behavior in a large-scale public transportation system through modeling daily variations

In this paper, the crowding effect in a transit vehicle is modeled in a time-expanded network that considers the daily variation in passenger flows. The study models the daily variation of in-vehicle crowding in a real large-scale transit system. A transit assignment for this real network is modeled and implemented by constructing a crowding cost function that follows the valuation of crowding and by using the reliable shortest path finding method. The direct application of the crowding model to a real network for the Utah Transit Authority indicates that crowd modeling with multi-user classes could influence public transportation system planning and affect the revenues of transit agencies. Moreover, the addition of the disutility factor, crowding, does not always appear to cause an increase in disutility for transit users.     

发动机系统可靠性分析与评估

针对发动机试验昂贵以及试验条件无法真实再现发动机使用环境的情况,提出利用“三包”信息作为评估发动机使用可靠性的数据源。以发动机完整数据服从的NHPP模型为基础,结合“三包”信息普遍存在的删失现象,提出新模型;该模型既适用于完整数据,也适用于删失数据。实例证明,利用该模型计算的参数与实际统计结果的误差小于2%,最后评估得到发动机的可靠性水平。     

框架可靠度计算的新方法

基于随机有限元的梯度优化算法引入拥有随机参数的框架可靠度分析.并编制计算程序与精确解Monte-Carlo法的计算结果进行了对比,证明该文方法用于框架结构可靠度分析是可行、可靠的,既避免了Monte-Carlo法计算量过大的缺点,又比传统的定值分析方法更合理,更贴近实际.     

基于Markov的系统级动力定位控制系统可靠性分析

针对Markov模型在处理大型冗余系统可靠性问题时会遭遇系统状态量过大,计算耗费时间长,甚至无法有效计算等问题,提出将冗余DP控制系统进行有效分割,分别建立主、备控制系统的Markov模型,进而结合分系统的故障率建立系统级的Markov分析模型。该策略将子系统作为独立的可靠性分析单元,无需获取复杂DP控制系统的所有状态量,大幅减少了系统状态转移的分析量,从而可有效提高冗余控制系统可靠性分析的效率。     

Assessment of factors associated with travel time reliability and prediction: an empirical analysis using probabilistic reasoning approach

Significant efforts have been made in modeling a travel time distribution and establishing measures of travel time reliability (TTR). However, the literature on evaluating the factors affecting TTR is not well established. Accordingly, this paper presents an empirical analysis to determine potential factors that are associated with TTR. This study mainly applies the Bayesian Networks model to assess the probabilistic association between road geometry, traffic data, and TTR. The results from this model reveal that land use characteristics, intersection factors, and posted speed limits are directly associated with TTR. Evaluating the strength of the association between TTR and the directly related variables, the log odds ratio analysis indicates that the land use factor has the highest impact (0.83) followed by the intersection factor (0.57). The findings from this study can provide valuable resources to planners and traffic operators in their decision-making to improve TTR with quantitative evidence.     

Analyzing urban bus service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels

Improving the reliability of bus service has the potential to increase the attractiveness of public transit to current and prospective riders. An understanding of service reliability is necessary to develop strategies that help transit agencies provide better services. However, few studies have been conducted analyzing bus reliability in the metropolis of China. This paper presents an in-depth analysis of service reliability based on bus operational characteristics in Beijing. Three performance parameters, punctuality index based on routes (PIR), deviation index based on stops (DIS), and evenness index based on stops (EIS), are proposed for the evaluation of bus service reliability. Reliability involves routes, stops, punctuality, deviation, and evenness. The relationship among the three parameters is discussed using a numerical example. Subsequently, through a sampling survey of bus lines in Beijing, service reliability at the stop, route, and network levels are estimated. The effects of route length, headway, the distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the use of exclusive bus lanes are also analyzed. The results indicate low service reliability for buses in Beijing and a high correlation between service reliability and route length, headway, distance from the stop to the origin terminal, and the provision of exclusive bus lanes.     

基于改进移动最小二乘法的结构可靠性分析

基于改进移动最小二乘法对结构可靠性问题进行分析,数值模拟结果表明,改进方法可有效提高计算精度.具体方法是使用椭圆范数代替二范数来度量样本点到中心点的距离,并根据上次迭代所得到的响应面在中心点处的法向量与坐标轴所成角度,对影响域进行旋转变换;从而将样本点的权重大小由样本点与中心点、响应面的距离共同决定,并将每次迭代得到的响应面函数在中心点处的法向信息包含在内.