大直径钢管砼中核心砼轴压本构关系研究

对现有的钢管砼中核心砼的本构模型进行了数值分析;通过不同直径试件的轴压试验,分析了直径大小对模型的影响,得到了适合于大直径钢管砼的核心砼本构关系.     

基于灰色理论的风险企业投资价值综合评价模型

风险企业大多从事研究和开发高新技术，具有很大的不确定性，因此如何对风险企业的投资价值进行评价就成为风险投资决策的关键问题，文中从风险企业投资价值的各影响因素入手设计了一套评判指标体系，在结合层次分析法的基础上，运用灰色评估理论建立了灰色多层次评价模型，并进行了实证分析。     

渗透海床上波浪传播特性的研究

波浪在渗透海床上传播时会发生波高的衰减.基于Dean和Dalrymple(1984年)提出的渗透海床上波浪传播的理论模型,推导了波浪运动的速度势表达式和色散关系,并采用迭代方法,提出了一种求解色散方程的简单高效的数值算法,从而求得波浪的空间衰减系数(即复波数虚部).在此基础之上,研究了不同渗透系数和不同水深条件下波高的衰减规律,结果表明,波浪在传播过程中波高按指数衰减,衰减速率随渗透系数的增大和相对水深的减小而增大,但由于波浪的空间衰减系数较小,波浪的衰减也较为缓慢,通常情况下,只有当波浪长距离传播时,海床渗透导致的波高衰减才较为显著.     

Comparing prediction methods for maritime accidents

ABSTRACT

The purpose of maritime accident prediction is to reasonably forecast an accident occurring in the future. In determining the level of maritime traffic management safety, it is important to analyze development trends of existing traffic conditions. Common prediction methods for maritime accidents include regression analysis, grey system models (GM) and exponential smoothing. In this study, a brief introduction is provided that discusses the aforementioned prediction models, including the associated methods and characteristics of each analysis, which form the basis for an attempt to apply a residual error correction model designed to optimize the grey system model. Based on the results, in which the model is verified using two different types of maritime accident data (linear smooth type and random-fluctuation type, respectively), the prediction accuracy and the applicability were validated. A discussion is then presented on how to apply the Markov model as a way to optimize the grey system model. This method, which proved to be correct in terms of prediction accuracy and applicability, is explored through empirical analysis. Although the accuracy of the residual error correction model is usually higher than the accuracy of the original GM (1,1), the effect of the Markov correction model is not always superior to the original GM (1,1). In addition, the accuracy of the former model depends on the characteristics of the original data, the status partition and the determination method for the status transition matrix.     

不等时距GM(1,1)模型预测地基沉降研究

分别采用直线插值、三次样条插值、BP神经网络3种方法,用M ATLAB语言编制程序将不等时距序列转化为等时距序列,采用灰色理论预测沉降.由于BP神经网络强大的非线性映射功能,可以避免常规插值法所造成的一系列误差.实际工程应用结果表明,利用直线插值、三次样条插值和BP神经网络与灰色理论联合建模所得的预测值与实测值的最大相对误差分别为17.2%,5.9%和4.6%.由此可见BP神经网络和灰色理论联合建立的GM(1,1)模型用于预测路基沉降最为精确.     

曲面灰色关联性在桥梁静载损伤定位中的应用

基于灰色理论的关联性分析方法,首次提出两空间曲面相关性概念和灰色高斯曲率关联系数,并将其应用到基于桥梁静载试验的损伤定位中,提出对局部损伤非常敏感的静态位移高斯曲率置信因子,通过该因子对各测点的损伤进行精确判断;并将其运用在五跨连续刚构桥的损伤定位上,从定位的结果可以看出,定位的精度可以由测点布置精度来控制,还可以进行单损伤和多损伤的定位,因此该方法在桥梁损伤定位中具有较广阔的应用前景.     

虚拟企业选择联盟伙伴的灰色综合评价法

世界统一市场的形成与激烈的市场竞争,使得因特网环境下企业的组织模式应该为虚拟企业,全面分析了虚拟企业的组织结构,随后运用灰色系统理论,提出了一个虚拟企业选择联盟伙伴的灰色综合评价的方法,并且给出实例说明其应用,结果表明该方法简便、合理、实用.     

基于奇异值分解的灰色模型参数估计

提出了一种新的基于奇异值分解的GM(1,1),GM(1,N)等灰色模型参数估计方法,该方法在进行奇异值分解时,借助2个辅助矩阵将奇异值分解矩阵分解为多个矩阵之积.研究了该估计方法下对原始序列进行数乘变换后参数的变化特征.研究表明该方法充分利用了奇异值分解的优点,回避了由于最小二乘法给灰色模型带来病态性的缺点,提高了模型的稳定性,同时还减少了计算量.     

A Practical Model for Deformation Prediction of Highway Subgrade Soils

This paper reports a practical constitutive relation for highway subgrade soils. The proposed model is derived based on the laboratory repeated-load testing of four subgrade soils. Statistical parameters generally used in the power model of subgrade permanent strain are expanded into material constants with engineering significance. The constitutional relation reported in this paper can be used in the mechanistic-based pavement design of highway flexible pavements and railroad tracks.     

钢轨侧面磨耗因子

木文基于轮轨滑动和钢轨侧磨机理,推导出了钢轨一次磨耗量同轮轨横向力、冲角等的关系式, 给出了各种情况下建议采用的磨耗因子,引用了有关试验结果验证了部分理论推导。