大城市实施BRT效果仿真评价研究

BRT是解决大城市交通拥堵问题、实现城市可持续发展的一项重要措施.基于系统动力学理论,建立了土地利用与交通系统关系模型,并采用上海市出行人次实际数据和拟合数据的对比,验证了模型的有效性;采用所建立的土地利用与交通系统关系模型进行预测,得出当前发展趋势下不采取任何措施和实施BRT措施的未来年路网服务水平指标,通过比较BRT方式在吸引不同比例客流情况下地面客流重新分配后路网服务水平的变化,对BRT的实施效果进行仿真评价.     

An analysis of the determinants of children’s weekend physical activity participation

This paper examines the out-of-home, weekend, time-use patterns of children aged 5–17 years, with a specific emphasis on their physical activity participation. The impact of several types of factors, including individual and household demographics, neighborhood demographics, built environment characteristics, and activity day variables, on physical activity participation is analyzed using a joint nested multiple discrete–continuous extreme value-binary choice model. The sample for analysis is drawn from the 2000 San Francisco Bay Area Travel Survey. The model developed in the paper can be used to assess the impacts of changing demographics and built environment characteristics on children’s physical activity levels.     

Traditional neighborhoods and commuting in the San Francisco Bay area

Neo-traditional designs, proponents argue, reduce dependency on the automobile and provide attractive environments for walking, bicycling, and transit riding. This paper explores the extent to which this proposition holds for seven traditional neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area that evolved around early streetcar services. Matched-pair comparisons of modal shares and trip generation rates for work trips are made between these neighborhoods and newer auto-oriented suburbs, controlling for the effects of income and, to a lesser extent, existing bus service levels. Pedestrian/bicycle modal shares and trip rates tended to be considerably higher, in some cases five time as high, in transit-oriented than in the paired auto-oriented neighborhood. Transit neighborhoods also averaged around 70 more daily transit work trips per 1,000 households than auto-oriented neighborhoods, though trip rates varied considerably among neighborhood pairs. Higher residential densities were also found to have a proportionately greater impact on transit commuting in transit-oriented than in auto-oriented neighborhoods. The paper concludes that in order to yield significant transportation benefits, neo-traditional development must be coordinated with larger regional planning efforts and public policy initiatives to reduce automobile dependency.     

城市交通复合系统协调度模型研究

将土地利用与城市交通系统看作一个复合系统,运用协同学理论和复合系统原理,选用在系统发展中起主导作用的指标作为模型序参量,构造了土地利用-城市交通协同协调度模型,该模型建立在土地利用与城市交通两子系统内部协调发展的基础之上,反映了土地利用与城市交通系统协调发展的程度和趋势。     

基于雨水资源化利用的城市排水系统优化设计

为解决城市日益突出的水资源危机以及现有雨洪排水系统所导致的城市水涝、城市生态环境恶化等一系列严重环境问题,提出了基于雨水资源化利用的城市雨洪排水系统优化设计方法,采取相应的工程措施,将汛期雨水“先就地利用,后排出,再蓄积调节利用”。该方法可以达到节约城市生活饮用水资源并减轻防洪压力的目的。     

增压柴油机燃用LPG/柴油双燃料的性能研究

对IVECO索菲姆增压柴油机改装为LPG/柴油双燃料发动机进行了试验研究。结果表明 ,采用机电联合控制方式 ,双燃料发动机与原柴油机相比 ,动力性基本相同 ,排放烟度有大幅度改善 ,但CO ,HC ,NOx 排放都有不同程度的提高     

Effects of economic disincentives on private car use

A field experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of economic disincentives on private car use. Eighty two-adult households who were owners of at least one car were randomly assigned to three experimental groups and one control group. Both experimental and control groups logged their car trips during one week before, one week during, and one week after treatment. The treatment consisted of charging two of the experimental groups approximately 100% of normal cost per kilometer of driving during 2 weeks, and charging the third experimental group this amount per kilometer of driving during 4 weeks. With the purpose of investigating whether deliberate planning increases the effect of economic disincentives, the households in one of the former and in the latter group were asked to fill out a prospective car log for the following week. The control group was not charged or requested to fill out a prospective car log but was in other respects treated in the same way. Analyses of the car logs and odometer readings during and at the end of treatment showed a weak reduction of car use due to the economic disincentives that however were almost completely dependent on planning.     

湿式离合器出油口甩出油温度预测方法

为了实现对湿式离合器出油口甩出油温度传感器的冗余校验和自我诊断，提出了一种基于粒计算约简的离合器出油口甩出油温度的模糊预测方法。首先分析出油口甩出油温度的影响因素，将主要影响因素作为预测输入量，并采用模糊推理理论预测当前离合器出油口甩出油温度。在设计模糊预测方法的过程中，通过分析实车数据得到车辆行驶时离合器处于高滑摩功率过程和低滑摩功率过程的不同特性，分别确定相对应的隶属度函数和模糊预测规则，从而进一步提高出油口甩出油温的预测精度。为了提高模糊预测算法的实时性，基于模糊预测规则创建模糊决策表，模糊输入量和模糊输出量分别作为决策表的条件属性集与决策属性集。利用粒计算理论对模糊决策表的条件属性集进行属性约简，通过削减冗余信息有效降低模糊输入量和模糊预测规则的个数。最后利用实车采集的数据对比分析约简前后模糊预测算法的单步运行时间和预测误差等性能指标。试验结果表明：基于粒计算约简的模糊预测算法能够有效保障预测精度，同时拥有更少的模糊预测规则数和模糊输入量，有效解决了模糊预测算法占用资源较多以及实用性较差的问题。     

Using the built environment to oversample walk,transit, and bicycle travel

Characteristics of the built environment (BE) have been associated with walk, transit, and bicycle travel. These BE characteristics can be used by transportation researchers to oversample households from areas where walk, transit, or bicycle travel is more likely, resulting in more observations of these uncommon travel behaviors. Little guidance, however, is available on the effectiveness of such built environment oversampling strategies. This article presents measures that can be used to assess the effectiveness of BE oversampling strategies and inform future efforts to oversample households with uncommon travel behaviors. The measures are sensitivity and specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and positive predictive value (PPV). To illustrate these measures, they were calculated for 10 BE-defined oversampling strata applied post-hoc to a Seattle area household travel survey. Strata with an average block size of <10 acres within a ¼ mile of household residences held the single greatest potential for oversampling households that walk, use transit, and/or bicycle.     

中小城市公交场站用地指标研究

国内目前针对中小城市公交场站的研究不足,中小城市场站建设缺乏科学指导,场站用地难以得到保障.结合中小城市公交发展特点及场站模式,通过科学的分析计算,确定场站停车坪、建筑用地、场前区及绿化用地规模,探讨与之相符的中小城市公交场站用地指标,对于中小城市场站规划建设具有一定的现实意义.