江苏省交通事故时间分布分析

根据江苏省有关交通事故数据,利用统计方法对交通事故发生的时间特征进行分析。通过分析交通事故年时间分布规律的波峰曲线,得出江苏省交通事故发生数量开始振荡变化,逐年上升的势头有望于近期遏制。通过分析交通事故、月、周、小时时间分布曲线,得出交通事故高峰小时出现在交通量高峰小时之后的9~12h、14~16h,两者不重合。死亡高峰时段(危险时段)多发生在18~21h的3h内。研究结论对不同时间内如何采取不同的安全对策来降低江苏省交通事故具有指导作用。     

挂篮底模纵梁受力简化计算方法及承重分配系数

以一桥梁施工工程实例为依托,采用有限元软件ANSYS对桥梁悬臂施工中使用的菱形挂篮进行仿真分析.提出3种简化模式计算底模纵梁的承重分配,对比发现将底模纵梁承受的外荷载简化为集中荷载,并分配至挂篮下前后横梁的方法是最优简化计算方法.在此基础上对挂篮底模纵梁承重分配系数进行优化,从而简化了繁琐的挂篮底模纵梁受力分析计算,保证了挂篮结构设计和施工的安全.     

Simulation on progressive collapse behaviour of whole ship model under extreme waves using idealized structural unit method

To ensure the safety of navigating ship, working loads and structural load-carrying capacity are two important aspects. In the present paper, a total simulation system combing load calculation and structural collapse analysis is applied to simulate progressive collapse behaviour of a single-hull Kamsarmax type bulk carrier. A three dimensional singularity distribution method is adopted to calculate pressure distribution with time history. A mixed structural model, collapse part simulated by ISUM elements and remaining part by elastic FEM elements with relative coarse mesh, is proposed for collapse analysis. Progressive collapse behaviour obtained by ISUM is good agreement with that by nonlinear software package, MARC. However, the calculation time of ISUM analysis is about 1/70 of MARC analysis. The applicability to structure system, high accuracy and sufficient efficiency of ISUM had been demonstrated.     

System energy optimisation strategies for metros with regeneration

Energy and environmental sustainability in transportation are becoming ever more important. In Europe, the transportation sector is responsible for about 30% of the final end use of energy. Electrified railway systems play an important role in contributing to the reduction of energy usage and CO₂ emissions compared with other transport modes. For metro-transit systems with frequently motoring and braking trains, the effective use of regenerated braking energy is a significant way to reduce the net energy consumption. Although eco-driving strategies have been studied for some time, a comprehensive understanding of how regeneration affects the overall system energy consumption has not been developed. This paper proposes a multi-train traction power network modelling method to determine the system energy flow of the railway system with regenerating braking trains. The initial results show that minimising traction energy use is not the same as minimising the system energy usage in a metro system. An integrated optimisation method is proposed to solve the system energy-saving problem, which takes train movement and electrical power flow into consideration. The results of a study of the Beijing Yizhuang metro line indicate that optimised operation could reduce the energy consumption at the substations by nearly 38.6% compared to that used with the existing ATO operation.     

内压载荷下X80管道裂纹应力分布规律研究

为了研究内压作用下管道裂纹应力场分布规律,以含有表面裂纹的X80管道为研究对象,对不同形状、不同方向、不同内压、不同尺寸的含裂纹管道进行仿真分析和实验验证。结果表明:裂纹尖端处应力远大于裂纹中心应力。裂纹形状对应力影响作用较小,随着裂纹方向与管道轴向夹角增大,裂纹尖端应力先增大后减小,随着管道内压、裂纹深度、裂纹长度的增大,裂纹尖端处应力随之线性增大。其中,裂纹长度对裂纹尖端应力的影响小于管道内压和裂纹深度。     

格拉斯磁环匀强磁场分析

以毕奥-萨伐尔定律为基础,建立亥姆霍兹线圈以及格拉斯磁环中心磁场分布模型,并计算了它们内部的轴向磁感应强度分布,绘出了空间分布图,分析了轴向磁感应强度与x、y坐标的关系,分析结果得到了亥姆霍兹线圈和格拉斯磁环内部匀强磁场分布区域,通过比较得到格拉斯磁环内部的匀强磁场区域比亥姆霍兹线圈内部的匀强磁场分布区域更大的结论。     

Mental models of driving and speed: biases,choices and reality

This paper provides a review of research performed by Svenson with colleagues and others work on mental models and their practical implications. Mental models describe how people perceive and think about the world including covariances and relationships between different variables, such as driving speed and time. Research on mental models has detected the time-saving bias [Svenson, O. (1970). A functional measurement approach to intuitive estimation as exemplified by estimated time savings. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 86, 204–210]. It means that drivers relatively overestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from an already high speed, for example, 90–130?km/h, and underestimate the time that can be saved by increasing speed from a low speed, for example, 30–45?km/h. In congruence with this finding, mean speed judgments and perceptions of mean speeds are also biased and higher speeds given too much weight and low speeds too little weight in comparison with objective reality. Replacing or adding a new speedometer in the car showing min per km eliminated or weakened the time-saving bias. Information about braking distances at different speeds did not improve overoptimistic judgments of braking capacity, but information about collision speed with an object suddenly appearing on the road did improve judgments of braking capacity. This is relevant to drivers, politicians and traffic regulators.     

抗滑桩在滑坡处理中的应用

结合某国道滑坡情况,根据其具体的工程地质和水文情况,提出了采用抗滑桩的处理方案。根据滑坡推力计算,确定抗滑桩的尺寸及位置,提出了施工过程动态监测和完工后长期监测的方案。     

A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.