Shipping inspections,detentions, and incidents: an empirical analysis of risk dimensions

ABSTRACT

Inspections play a key role in keeping vessels safe. Inspection authorities employ different policies to decide which vessels to inspect, including type of vessel, age, and flag. Attention for vessel history is usually restricted only to past detentions. This paper demonstrates that the correlation between the probabilities of detention and (very serious and serious) incidents is very low and that proactive prevention of future incidents is improved by accounting for both risk dimensions, that is, by combining past incident and detention information for targeting high-risk vessels for inspection. Five combined methods are presented to classify vessels based on these two risk dimensions, each of which involves extensive sets of factors. These combined classification methods have predictive power for future incidents. Depending on the applied inspection rate, incorporation of incident risk improves inspection hit rates for vessels with future incidents by 30–50% compared to using only detention information. It is recommended to focus on vessels where both risks are relatively high. A practical example shows how the methods can be applied for inspection selection and for prioritizing inspection areas defined in terms of eight risk domains that include collisions, groundings, engine and hull failures, loss of life, fire, and pollution.     

论船舶安全检查与海事调查的统合

针对船舶安全检查与海事调查条块分割的现状,从理论和实践两方面阐述了两者的内在统一性。同时论证了船舶安全检查与海事调查统合的理论基础,并提出了对二者进行整合具体设想。     

Prioritization of failure risk in subsea flexible pipes via data envelopment analysis

Risk-based inspection is nowadays the predominant approach to structural integrity assurance in complex engineering systems, such as those designed for and operated in deepwater environments. One of the major tasks in risk-based planning is risk ranking of the components comprising an engineering system. In this paper, a mathematical model based on data envelopment analysis is developed for this purpose, whereby two types of weights are employed: subjective judgmental weights which are provided as input, and objective which constitute the output of the model. The use of the mathematical model is illustrated in a real world system of subsea flexible pipes, which operational in the south Atlantic Shelf off the Southeast Coast of Brazil.     

结构完整性管理在海洋平台延期服役评估中的应用

结构完整性管理是为保证钢结构从安装到退役全生命周期过程的适用性评价系统。依据结构完整性管理的基本要素数据、评价、策略和程序,对渤海海域某延期服役平台导管架结构进行评估,提出延期服役改进措施和后期服役的监测重点,为延期服役平台的结构评估提供借鉴和参考,具有重要的现实意义和推广价值。     

无损检测技术在FPSO系泊钢缆中的应用研究

针对FPSO系泊钢缆经常出现的锈蚀、磨损、断丝等损伤问题,介绍所研发的无损检测仪的关键技术及应用情况。将新研制的系泊钢缆无损检测仪应用于FPSO111进行在线检测作业,获得检测数据。通过软件分析,与实际数据相符,验证了系泊钢缆无损检测仪的功能满足系泊钢缆水下检测的要求。     

变配电所电力试验自动检测管理系统的研制

从目前路内电力试验的现状入手,阐述了建立变配电所电力试验自动检测管理系统的目的,从自动检测和数据管理2个方面详细介绍了该系统的构成、功能、采用的关键技术、主要特点及在电力试验中的具体应用情况。     

基于经验模式分解的钢轨波浪弯曲不平顺提取方法

钢轨波浪弯曲不平顺隐藏在轨道不平顺中。采用小波分析和经验模式分解相结合的方法,对钢轨波浪弯曲不平顺进行识别和提取分析。利用对称双正交小波对轨检车监测到的车体垂向加速度响应和高低轨道不平顺信号进行小波变换,滤除波长1 m以下成分后,基本可以保证用经验模式分解得到的第1个固有模态函数包含全部钢轨弯曲不平顺信息。对提取得到的钢轨波浪弯曲不平顺的分析表明,不同钢轨上存在的弯曲不平顺不同,钢轨存在的波浪弯曲不平顺是波长在3 m附近变化的准周期不平顺;钢轨波浪弯曲不平顺是引起车体颤振的原因。建议在提速线路和客运专线上应限制波浪弯曲钢轨上道。     

新红外线检测车的方案设计

介绍了济南局新红外线检测车的构成及功能,红外线动态检测设备、车轮相对偏移以及垂下品监测系统、HTK—2003型AEI设备动态检测装置的工作原理以及该车的应用前景。     

浅析客车运行安全监控系统(TCDS)的应用

通过客车运行安全监控系统(TCDS)的实际应用情况,对25T型客车的轮对动平衡值等超限产生的危害进行了分析。     

城市轨道交通车辆部件故障与均衡修修程周期

简要分析了目前采用的城市轨道交通车辆维修制度及修程的不足,引出均衡修概念。基于概率统计分析,结合车门等车辆零部件的故障间隔时间特点,提出确定均衡修修程周期的方法,指出均衡修策略的技术特征。实施均衡修应以部件为维修单元。分析表明,采用均衡修将减少零部件故障,提升车辆运用可靠性。