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与发达国家不同,我国正处于快速城镇化发展阶段,迫切需要在运输需求预测理论与方法上的创新.为了更科学地进行运输需求预测工作,从而对运输需求有系统精准的把握,基于"运输系统是一类开放的复杂巨系统"及"运输需求预测是一类复杂性问题"的认知,将系统工程中"从定性到定量"的综合集成方法论引入运输需求预测之中,提出基于综合集成方法论的运输需求预测方法,并给出具体执行操作流程.以浙江省城际轨道交通客流预测为例,将研究成果应用于实际的工程项目之中,验证了其有效性.实践结果表明,"从定性到定量"、"人机结合,以人为主"的运输需求预测综合集成方法能够较好地保证预测结论的准度和精度,同时也具有较强的可操作性.     

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以多路径多交通运输方式网络为研究对象,从运输系统快捷、低能耗、可持续发展目标出发,提出了基于功效系数法的轨道交通票价优化调整多目标规划模型.该模型旨在减少经济圈内平均单次出行时间及能源消耗.案例分析表明,综合交通运输系统出行效率、出行低能耗、运营企业可持续发展的目标相互影响和制约.城际轨道交通票价的调整对经济圈内的交通结构有重要的影响,并且通过验证,城际轨道交通票价的降低有助于减少经济圈内系统平均出行时间及能源消耗的减少.在本文给出的案例中,若将经济圈内城际轨道交通票价降低7.5%,系统出行时间、能耗水平将分别下降7.8%、2.1%.决策部门可以通过制定合理的城际轨道交通票价,促进多运输方式间的客流转移,进而实现综合运输系统快捷、高效和可持续发展要求.     

基于同步多样性的公交时刻优化方法

分析了现有公交调度方法中大间隔发车、局部收敛与时间不协调等问题,以最大同时到站次数和最大同时到站车辆数量为优化目标,以末车定时、站点允许排队长度、服务质量、线路服务时间跨度为约束条件,建立了公交时刻优化方法,设计了基于网络选点规则和网络同步规则的求解算法。计算结果表明:当公交网络中存在2条线路与2个站点且发车时间在30min内时,应用提出的方法,在2个站点共产生3次同步,线路1的发车时刻分别为第5、15、20、30min,线路2的发车时刻分别为第0、10、30min;与现有方法相比,同步次数减少1次,发车时刻完全分布于规定时间内,消除了剩余时间,获得了非均匀化的发车间隔,体现了同步的多样性。     

英国牛津城停车换乘发展经验与启示

基于公交汽车的停车换乘是英国城市最普遍应用的一种停车换乘服务,为深入认识其实践经验,以牛津城为例,全面介绍了停车换乘发展的背景、社会经济条件、道路交通条件、停车换乘系统的技术经济指标、投资与运营以及交通影响等。最后结合牛津城的经验,给出了基于公交汽车停车换乘的一些应用建议,供我国城市参考。     

深圳市北站公交场站运营服务评估

为保障深圳市北站公交场站安全运营,在全面掌握深圳市北站公交场站及配套工程规划建设的基础上,从公交场站静态设施、动态运行两个层面开展运营服务评估工作,并提出对公交场站的改善建议和措施,最大程度保证枢纽开通后能够提供安全的公交运营服务。     

城市轨道交通沿线常规公交线网评价分析

城市轨道交通的建设使得城市公共交通形成典型的层次结构特点,常规公交系统与轨道交通系统的衔接协调性的好坏将直接影响整个公交系统的运营状况。以城市轨道交通为出发点对其沿线的常规公交线网进行评价研究,构建评价指标体系,采用灰关联分析法对公交线网进行综合评价,并将此方法运用到南京市地铁2号线沿线的常规公交线网的优化调整中,取得良好的实践效果。     

快速公交系统引导城市发展的协调规划模型

为了使快速公交系统的客流得到可持续发展,和根据城市新区公交导向发展的客流变化分析公交引导城市发展的发展阶段,针对公交导向城市发展的阶段以及它支撑快速公交系统的程度,分析其设施配置方案的不同级别,建立快速公交系统和公交导向发展的协调规划模型,分析公交导向发展和快速公交系统间的互动关系,利用模型模拟公交导向城市发展的进程和快速公交系统的设施配置,使二者协调发展。     

公共交通优先发展模式下的道路空间再分配——以北京市旧城为例

北京市旧城内道路空间有限,难以通过新建干路、道路提级、路网加密等规划手段实现公共交通路权分配优先。首先将北京市公交专用车道与国际典型城市进行对比,指出旧城公共交通系统存在的与道路空间密切相关的六方面问题,并提出采用道路空间再分配、先进的ITS技术支持以及多方式服务水平评价的综合对策加以解决。重点围绕道路空间再分配展开探讨,从公交专用车道时空再分配、公共汽车站空间再分配、自行车冲突空间避让三方面详细阐述解决方案。     

Using AHP to measure the perception gap between current and potential users of bus services

Abstract

This study develops a multicriteria evaluation of user perception towards bus transit services and measures the gap in the perceptions held by current and potential users. A review of the transport quality literature indicates that both preference and satisfaction measures have been implemented to provide a comprehensive perception-based evaluation of bus quality. Although attempts have been made to evaluate user perception through a separate analysis of each (preference and/or satisfaction), the application of multicriteria quality measures are limited. A multicriteria quality measure not only offers more than just information on the daily experience of users but also knowledge of the internal process of quality evaluation (drivers/barriers). The multicriteria measure utilises the data of 512 questionnaires, whereby user perceptions were expressed through judgments of importance and satisfaction based on a set of 29 quality indicators classified into six attributes. Firstly, the study develops analytical hierarchy process (AHP) models to measure user preference. Secondly, a weighted perception index (WPI) of both preference and satisfaction is developed through a multicriteria model. Finally, multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) is conducted to identify the level of variation in the perception of both current and potential users towards bus service quality. The results show that although both current and potential users place a higher importance towards the same indicators, they do not share the same pattern of preferences (values and/or order). In addition, the study found that the interaction between preferences and satisfaction generated new patterns of subjective evaluation, and that these patterns vary significantly by user category.     

Refining light rapid transit typology: a UK perspective

Abstract

Recent developments in the light rapid transit sector have introduced transit modes that are attempting to imitate the performance of others, e.g. buses with tram-like characteristics. The boundaries between existing definitions of what is a bus, tram or train are becoming blurred. For transport studies and practice this requires a review of how we define modes. This is not just a matter of semantics, but has safety and competition regulation implications for system operators. This paper proposes a structure to produce rail- and bus-based transit mode definitions and typology that are appropriate for modern use. A decision tree is used to classify and define the transit modes as guided-bus, trolley-bus, light rail and tram-train and is provided with example systems. The paper provides a robust definitional framework that allows transit system promoters, operators and other interested parties to have a consistent basis of reference when specifying and comparing rapid transit systems.