A new composite decision support framework for strategic and sustainable transport appraisals

This paper concerns the development of a new decision support framework for the appraisal of transport infrastructure projects. In such appraisals there will often be a need for including both conventional transport impacts as well as criteria of a more strategic and/or sustainable character. The proposed framework is based on the use of cost-benefit analysis featuring feasibility risk assessment in combination with multi-criteria decision analysis and is supported by the concept of decision conferencing. The framework is applied for a transport related case study dealing with the complex decision problem of determining the most attractive alternative for a new fixed link between Denmark and Sweden – the so-called HH-connection. Applying the framework to the case study made it possible to address the decision problem from an economic, a strategic, and a sustainable point of view simultaneously. The outcome of the case study demonstrates the decision making framework as a valuable decision support system (DSS), and it is concluded that appraisals of transport projects can be effectively supported by the use of the DSS. Finally, perspectives of the future modelling work are given.     

Trade-offs between mobility and equity maximization under environmental capacity constraints: A case study of an integrated multi-objective model

This paper investigates the performance of a policy decision tool proposed for multi-objective decision under different policy interventions. This tool deals with the trade-off between mobility and equity maximization under environmental capacity constraints. Two system objectives, maximization of mobility and equity, are formulated in terms of the sum of total car ownership and number of trips, and the differences in accessibility between zones. Environmental capacities are based on production efficiency theory in which the frontier emission under maximum system efficiency is taken as environmental capacity. To examine the performance of the proposed model, three types of hypothetical policies (network improvement, population increase and urban sprawl) are formulated. Effects are simulated using data pertaining to Dalian City, China. Results show that the proposed model is capable of representing the trade-offs between mobility and equity based on different policy interventions. Compared with two extreme cases with the single objective of mobility maximization or equity maximization, the Pareto-optimal solutions provide more interesting practical options for decision makers. Taking the solution based on the maximum equity as an example, the policy of urban sprawl yields the most significant improvement in both emission and accessibility of the three scenarios.     

集对分析的灰数决策法在交通规划中的应用

用灰数表示决策信息是合理的.通过构造灰数意义上的决策值与比较域,利用集对分析的相对性,在与同一、对立(最优、最劣)目标接近程度意义上构造了决策值与比较域间的集对联系数.引入了集对联系数中同一度和对立度间相互关联的集对势的概念,利用集对势的大小对方案的优劣进行排序.作为集对分析和灰数的结合,建立了基于集对分析的灰数多指标决策模型.最后,以实例验证了该模型的有效性与实用性.     

模糊决策方法定量评价道路安全性的尝试

运用安全系统工程模糊决策方法．分析天津市东丽区驯海路的不安全因素，建立双层多因素集．通过线性代数运算评价，计算出驯海路定量安全性，从而得出道路是否需要整改的结论，并提出改进措施。     

高速公路项目投资风险量化分析

结合高速公路项目投资的特点和一般规律，运用量化分析方法对高速公路项目风险及其敏感性进行估测。项目投资风险量化分析的方法包括盈亏平衡分析法、敏感性分析法等，研究了高速公路项目量化分析的数据因素和量化分析过程，利用上述方法对案例项目进行了实际分析，并据以判断投资项目的风险大小并做出决策。     

基于改进的模糊决策树ETC系统客户欺诈分析研究

随着我国ETC系统的普及，对其进行管理成了急需解决的问题，因利用电子标签和智能卡进行欺诈的行为将给高速公路管理部门带来了极大的损失。介绍了一种改进的模糊决策二叉树模型。即采用最优分割熵方法确定最优割点来对数据模糊化，引入模糊数学中的不确定性理论，依据分类的不确定性建造树，生成规则，在此基础上利用规则匹配的方法检测任意的样本数据是否为欺诈数据。     

道路交通无序拥挤控制模型的研究

为了解决道路交通无序拥挤控制问题,定义交通序参数、路段交通的有序和无序,建立涨落后无序拥挤控制过程数学规划模型,采用动态分流决策方法求解模型得出无序拥挤控制的最佳方案,并给出相应的算法,最后用一个例子说明算法的实用性。     

灰色理论在养护决策中的应用研究

选取平整度、车辙、抗滑能力、路面破损作为控制指标,采用灰色聚类法对养护路段进行分类,以达到科学决策的目的,可为类似公路的养护提供参考。     

融合可持续理念的交通规划方案比选方法——以亚特兰大大都市区为例

越来越多的机构开始为交通系统的可持续发展定义,并试图将这一概念融入区域交通规划过程.然而,只有极少数的区域规划机构意识到了交通系统和土地利用变化给经济、环境和社会生活质量(这三者通常被认为是可持续交通系统的三个基本方面)带来的广泛影响.首先,论述了使用多个可持续发展指标的多准则决策方法,并应用其评估亚特兰大大都市区的三...     

基于熵值理论的城市轨道交通投融资结构评价优化

城市轨道交通建设项目中,投融资结构是投融资管理的重要组成部分。从投资管控与融资管理两个角度,设计了城市轨道交通建设项目投融资结构评价指标体系,构建了基于熵值理论的多目标评价模型,对城市轨道交通建设项目投融资结构进行评价分析与优化。并以广州轨道交通11线为应用案例,验证了该评价优化方法的有效性。