Flexible long range planning using low cost information

Contemporary transport planning requires a flexible modelling approach which can be used to monitor the implementation of a long term plan checking regularly its short term performance with easily available data; the original model is periodically updated using low cost information and this allows the evaluation of the changes to the plan which may be required. Such an approach requires models suited to regular updating and to the use of data from different sources. Models to update trip matrices from traffic counts have been available for some time; however, the estimation and/or updating of other model stages with low cost data has escaped analytical treatment. The paper discusses this idea and formulates the updating problem for an example involving a joint destination/mode choice model under various assumptions about the nature of the available data. Analytical solutions are proposed as well as some general conclusions.requests for offprints     

优化广西铁路建设项目顺序研究

在综合分析国家及区域"十二五"经济社会发展规划、中长期铁路网规划等规划基础上,预测研究年度区域各铁路客货运量、构成及其未来发展趋势;分析各铁路项目的功能定位及其在区域路网中发挥的运输效益;综合考虑经济效益、社会效益及国家宏观经济政策,提出优化广西铁路建设项目顺序和提高运能的方案,达到提前发挥投资效益的目的。     

政府投资高速公路计价依据比较研究

高速公路作为投资大，建设周期长，回报率不高的公益性基础设施项目，决定了国家投入应是建设资金的主渠道，因此科学、合理、完善的政府投资高速公路计价依据十分重要。然而我国目前计价依据主要还是建立在计划时代条件下原有的定额体系的基础上，没有形成与工程量清单相适应的计价依据体系，而且工程定额的更新速度很慢，很难反应目前高速公路工程建设市场的实际情况。通过分析发达国家投资高速公路计价依据，从中参考一些值得借鉴的内容，进而对我国政府投资高速公路计价依据改革提出了几点建议。     

Efficient multiple model particle filtering for joint traffic state estimation and incident detection

This article proposes an efficient multiple model particle filter (EMMPF) to solve the problems of traffic state estimation and incident detection, which requires significantly less computation time compared to existing multiple model nonlinear filters. To incorporate the on ramps and off ramps on the highway, junction solvers for a traffic flow model with incident dynamics are developed. The effectiveness of the proposed EMMPF is assessed using a benchmark hybrid state estimation problem, and using synthetic traffic data generated by a micro-simulation software. Then, the traffic estimation framework is implemented using field data collected on Interstate 880 in California. The results show the EMMPF is capable of estimating the traffic state and detecting incidents and requires an order of magnitude less computation time compared to existing algorithms, especially when the hybrid system has a large number of rare models.     

提高地方铁路工程总承包项目盈利水平的投资控制分析

国内铁路工程与其他行业相比，在工程总承包项目实施过程中有其独特的承包风险，投资控制难度较大。此文结合国内地方铁路工程总承包（EPC）项目投资控制特点，对EPC项目全过程中各阶段投资控制的关键问题进行分析，并提出了提高盈利水平的控制策略及措施。     

新能源汽车电池管理方法综述

电池管理系统作为电动汽车的重要组成部分,其中准确估测荷电状态(SOC)和电池均衡管理是电池管理系统的核心功能,也是优化系统能量管理,提高动力电池的使用效率,延长电池使用寿命的关键,对电池的储能至关重要。详细介绍主要SOC的估测方法和电池均衡管理方法,并对其优劣性进行分析与阐述,通过文献综述与对比分析为电池组在使用时提出理论依据与维护措施,为未来的研究提供便捷研究方法。     

基于工作电压的动力电池剩余容量动态估算

以单体蓄电池为研究对象，为解决电动汽车动力电池在工作状态下的剩余容量（SOC）进行实时估算的难题，提出了一种新的动力电池剩余容量估算方法。通过外接一个处于工作状态下电池周期性的恒定电流负载，测得一系列的电池工作电压，这些工作电压采用阶段斜率的计算方法求电池该时刻的剩余时间，从而推算出电池的SOC。证明了动态工作点折算到静态工作点的可行性。该方法的相对误差最大不超过7％，通过软件可实施对温度、老化等因素的补偿。误差分析结果表明，该方法误差小，测量精度高。     

A Novel Approach to Vehicle Dynamics using the Theory of a Cosserat Point and its Application to Collision Analyses of Platooning Vehicles

A fully three-dimensional, computationally inexpensive vehicular model is presented. In contrast to traditional rigid body models, the vehicle's sprung mass is modeled as a (nonlinearly) deformable body. The formulation of the equations of motion is based on a continuum theory known as the theory of a Cosserat point. These equations largely preserve the relative simplicity of rigid body dynamics but incorporate deformable features. The ease of computer implementation permits the simultaneous simulation of vehicle and collision dynamics of multiple vehicles and highway objects. In this paper, the theory of a Cosserat point is summarized and its general application to vehicle and collision dynamics is illustrated. A three-dimensional collision algorithm is discussed with emphasis on small closing velocities (negligible residual crush, elastic rebound). The novel model is compared to standard procedures.     

To fully automate or not? Investigating demands and willingness to pay for autonomous vehicles based on automation levels

We review the literature on the motivators of consumers’ purchasing decisions regarding autonomous vehicles (AVs), focusing on environmental awareness, vehicle types, concerns about accidents, and merits. The willingness to buy (WTB) and willingness to pay (WTP) for AVs have been extensively studied. However, it is imperative to broaden the outlook and consolidate the existing knowledge base. Although the WTB and WTP for AVs have been studied, automation-level preferences have been underresearched. Based on more than 150,000 observations, we construct a choice model and calculate the WTP for each level of automation. Our results show that there is a disparity between people's WTB and WTP according to the automation level. In particular, we find that the coefficients regarding FAVs’ benefits and accidents significantly exceed those related to environmental concerns. Such results indicate that practical benefits and concerns influence AV demand and WTP to a greater extent than environmental awareness. Our model results indicate a disparity between WTB and WTP for AVs that mostly derives from the different types of environmental concerns, concerns about accidents, and perceived benefits from these automobiles. Our results urge policies according to which governments and companies closely examine consumers who exhibit WTB-WTP disparities. Issues relating to demand patterns, WTP, and a suitable policy framework are discussed.     

水声网络探测节点的一种运动目标参数估计算法

文章提出了一种水声网络探测节点的运动目标参数估计方法,即基于模型匹配原理的估计算法。给出了算法的原理和仿真分析。