面向智能船舶的容错卡尔曼融合估计方法

针对智能船舶多传感器系统因未知海洋环境干扰和设备间干扰等因素导致的一个或数个传感器产生随机间歇性故障从而导致融合估计结果出现偏差甚至失真的问题,设计1种基于四分位滤波的容错方法,并针对该方法导致的观测时滞问题设计1种预报方法,提前预报观测值,进而抵消容错方法导致的时滞问题。此外,针对多传感器之间的互协方差难以准确估计的问题,采用CI融合估计方法进行融合估计。为验证算法的有效性和融合估计的精度,对带有间歇性故障的两传感器系统进行仿真试验,并与按矩阵、按对角阵和按标量3种分布式融合估计方法得到的结果进行对比。4种方法的均方误差系数大小对比结果显示,对于带间歇性故障的多传感器系统,设计的融合滤波不仅具有鲁棒性,而且具有较高的融合精度。     

Aggregating mobile object trajectories: cumulative time geographic density estimation for GPS data

We present new approaches that expand upon the time geographic density estimation (TGDE) framework previously employed to estimate potential path trees. In the past, TGDE metrics have identified possible locations an individual moving object may have passed between, given known origin and destination points. This paper utilizes a new form of TGDE to investigate taxicab GPS traces over a specified time horizon with position ‘gaps’. To this end, we propose a new extension to the TGDE framework, TGDE-C, which is used to determine the cumulative TGDE values for a group of GPS traces, at a given location. These metrics are applied to multiple taxis and allow for time of day analysis. Additionally, we combine these new extensions with existing TGDE metrics that allow us to determine how accessible individual or groups of vehicles are to urban opportunities.     

Estimation of origin-destination matrices from link counts and sporadic routing data

Estimation of origin-destination (OD) matrices from link count data is a challenging problem because of the highly indeterminate relationship between the observations and the latent route flows. Conversely, estimation is straightforward if we observe the path taken by each vehicle. We consider an intermediate problem of increasing practical importance, in which link count data is supplemented by routing information for a fraction of vehicles on the network. We develop a statistical model for these combined data sources and derive some tractable normal approximations thereof. We examine likelihood-based inference for these normal models under the assumption that the probability of vehicle tracking is known. We show that the likelihood theory can be non-standard because of boundary effects, and provide conditions under which such irregular behaviour will be observed in practice. For regular cases we outline connections with existing generalised least squares methods. We then consider estimation of OD matrices under estimated and/or misspecified models for the probability of vehicle tracking. Theoretical developments are complemented by simulation experiments and an illustrative example using a section of road network from the English city of Leicester.     

Recursive estimation of average vehicle time headway using single inductive loop detector data

Vehicle time headway is an important traffic parameter. It affects roadway safety, capacity, and level of service. Single inductive loop detectors are widely deployed in road networks, supplying a wealth of information on the current status of traffic flow. In this paper, we perform Bayesian analysis to online estimate average vehicle time headway using the data collected from a single inductive loop detector. We consider three different scenarios, i.e. light, congested, and disturbed traffic conditions, and have developed a set of unified recursive estimation equations that can be applied to all three scenarios. The computational overhead of updating the estimate is kept to a minimum. The developed recursive method provides an efficient way for the online monitoring of roadway safety and level of service. The method is illustrated using a simulation study and real traffic data.     

Ecologically based hybrid life cycle analysis of continuously reinforced concrete and hot-mix asphalt pavements

An ecologically-based hybrid life cycle assessment model is used to evaluate the resource consumption and atmospheric emissions of continuously reinforced concrete and a hot-mix asphalt pavements. The cumulative mass and ecological resource consumption values are lower for continuously reinforced concrete, but the median values of cumulative energy and industrial energy consumption were lower for hot-mix asphalt. In addition, the use of reclaimed asphalt pavement results in a higher sensitivity for the ecological resource consumption of hot-mix asphalt compared to that of fly ash when use on the natural capital utilization of continuously reinforced concrete pavement. The cumulative and industrial exergy consumption values are significantly reduced with increases in reclaimed asphalt pavement and fly ash, and the use of low fuel transportation modes.     

Identifying optimal data aggregation interval sizes for link and corridor travel time estimation and forecasting

With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor, (2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.

土基模量对沥青路面性能影响分析

从沥青路面结构层施工质量控制、半刚性基层反射裂缝扩展、路面疲劳寿命三个方面分析了土基模量对半刚性基层沥青路面性能的影响规律,提出了沥青路面土基模量的合理设计和施工控制措施。     

强度折减法在平面滑动型岩质边坡的应用*

岩质边坡平面滑动验算包括岩体内部结构面验算和岩体抗剪强度验算.均质边坡岩体由于抗剪不足产生平面滑动,通过假定破坏面与内摩擦角之间关系迭代求解安全系数,探寻破裂角和内摩擦角之间的关系,进而提出简化估算安全系数公式.通过与数值解对比验算,可知简化公式精度能够满足工程设计要求,可为实际工程提供参考和借鉴.     

基于名义应力法的疲劳卡片构建方法研究

基于有限元的疲劳寿命预测可应用于各行业,疲劳寿命预测精度的提高,离不开有效的材料疲劳卡片,疲劳卡片反映了载荷水平与疲劳寿命的关系。通过设计合理的材料试样的疲劳试验,结合试验与有限元计算,计算不同损伤参量创建应用于疲劳寿命分析的材料疲劳卡片,同时对疲劳卡片的仿真精度进行了验证。结果表明,基于名义应力法构建的疲劳卡片具备较高的预测精度,结合材料试验数据与仿真结果构建的多应力比S-N疲劳卡片,可用于其他适用于应力疲劳分析的零部件疲劳寿命分析,为提高零部件疲劳寿命预测精度提供新的技术途径,为零件的前期结构设计提供参考,可在不同领域进行推广并开展进一步分析研究。     

基于BIM的数字建造工业化平台中业务管理的多源数据集成关键技术研究

随着BIM技术的不断发展,BIM平台在施工全过程的应用逐渐丰富。集成整合平台背后全生命周期的工程数据,并将数据传递至工程建造各个环节当中进行应用,是BIM平台发挥作用的本质。如何在工程的全生命周期收集和整理工程数据库,并传递至各个工作流程中发挥作用,是开展BIM平台建设的重点。以乌鲁木齐市东进场高架道路工程为实例,重点研究BIM平台中工程数据库的建立,分析如何在项目的设计阶段和施工过程中采集工程数据,并将工程数据库应用于项目管理。