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诱增交通量是交通需求预测与交通建设项目评价中的重要组成部分.本文从诱增交通量概念出发，从宏观和微观两个角度阐述了区域诱增交通量产生的机理，分析了现行单个建设项目诱增交通量计算思路的局限性，研究提出了基于区域的诱增交通量计算的多元线性回归模型.论文结合我国的国情，对该模型参数进行了标定，提出了符合中国实际的基于区域诱增交通量计算方法.利用北京地区改革开放之后(1978年至2003年)的数据进行了实例分析，得到了道路建设对交通量的近期影响弹性系数0.17,远期影响弹性系数0.29的结果.     

一类有竞争的物流配送中心选址模型

对已有多个配送中心存在的前提出，新增配送中心为获取最大市场占有量如何进行有效的选址决策问题进行了研究，建立了一个选址决策模型，把求解的问题归结为无约束的非线性规划问题，并给出了迭代算法，最后对如何解决考虑多种选址影响因素及多个新增配送中心的复杂情况进行了讨论。     

基于三维势流理论的耐波性数值预报

准确预报船体运动响应对于砰击等波浪载荷的计算以及合理结构设计具有重要意义。船舶在大幅波浪中的运动呈明显的非线性,而现阶段耐波性预报多采用线性切片方法。三维水动力分析软件 WASIM基于时域势流理论,采用 Rankine面元法预报船舶在波浪中的运动响应,并考虑了多种非线性因素。本文以标模 DTMB5512为对象,采用 WASIM预报其在不同航速下的耐波性,并与基于线性切片理论的计算结果和模型试验结果进行对比。结果表明：利用 WASIM计算得到的船体运动响应比其他方法更接近试验值,合理体现了船舶在风浪中的实际耐波性能。因此,利用 WASIM能够较好地评估船舶在波浪中的非线性耐波特性。     

The relationship between urban street networks and private motorized trips at the city level

There are factors that impact car usage in urban areas, such as density, diversity and design, but there have been few studies that examine the relationship between street network factors and car usage at the city level (macro level). This paper focuses on this relationship by introducing urban street network variables, such as blocks per area, nodes per block and length of roads and motorways, as independent variables and the percentage of daily trips by private motorized modes as the dependent variable. The street network in this study includes interconnecting lines and points that present streets, roads, motorways, intersections and blocks. The strength of the relationship in this study is found using multiple linear regression. The findings of this research indicate that an increase in car usage is correlated with an increasing number of blocks per area, number of nodes per block and length of motorways. In addition, because the urban street network is the result of macro-scale planning decisions, considering this relationship can lead to better planning decisions.     

低压气液混输采气管道串接集气模式研究

针对杭锦旗气田高液气比气井井间串接集气距离长、管道压损大的问题,文中用权重法估算了影响管道气液混输距离的因素,表明管道直径是影响集气距离的最重要因素,权重比约56.1%。根据杭锦旗气田气井生产参数,对不同采气管道规格串接模式进行了研究,确定了适用于不同集气量和串接井数的采气管道规格系列,提出了直线式与辐射式相结合的井间串接模式,为杭锦旗气田地面集输站场和管网设计提供技术依据。     

Short‐term traffic flow prediction with linear conditional Gaussian Bayesian network

Traffic flow prediction is an essential part of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Most of the previous traffic flow prediction work treated traffic flow as a time series process only, ignoring the spatial relationship from the upstream flows or the correlation with other traffic attributes like speed and density. In this paper, we utilize a linear conditional Gaussian (LCG) Bayesian network (BN) model to consider both spatial and temporal dimensions of traffic as well as speed information for short‐term traffic flow prediction. The LCG BN allows both continuous and discrete variables, which enables the consideration of categorical variables in traffic flow prediction. A microscopic traffic simulation dataset is used to test the performance of the proposed model compared to other popular approaches under different predicting time intervals. In addition, the authors investigate the importance of spatial data and speed data in flow prediction by comparing models with different levels of information. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy will increase significantly when both spatial data and speed data are included. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical model for optimising the sequence for clearing snow from the manoeuvring area during winter operations

This article considers the optimisation of the sequence for clearing snow from stretches of the manoeuvring area of an airport. This issue involves the optimisation of limited resources to remove snow from taxiways and runways thereby leaving them in an acceptable condition for operating aircraft. The airfield is divided into subsets of significant stretches for the purpose of operations and target times are established during which these are open to aircraft traffic. The document contains several mathematical models each with different functions, such as the end time of the process, the sum of the end times of each stretch and gap between the estimated and the real end times. During this process, we introduce different operating restrictions on partial fulfilment of the operational targets as applied to zones of special interest, or relating to the operation of the snow‐clearing machines. The problem is solved by optimisation based on linear programming. The article gives the results of the computational tests carried out on five distinct models of the manoeuvring area, which cover increasingly complex situations and larger areas. The mathematical model is particularised for the case of the manoeuvring area of Adolfo Suarez Madrid—Barajas Airport. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Highlights
• Optimal sequence for clearing snow from the manoeuvring area of an airport.
• Contains optimising algorithms solved using CPLEX LP‐based tree search.
• Restrictions on partial fulfilment of operational targets applied to subsets of significant stretches, used for planning the operation of snow‐clearing machines.
• Model applied to the case of the manoeuvring area of Adolfo Suárez Madrid Barajas Airport.
• Conclusions are given on the results of the computational tests carried out. There are five models of the manoeuvring area which cover increasingly complex situations and larger areas.

     

汶川地震后对我国结构工程抗震的几点思考

通过前两位作者前后两次赴汶川地震灾区进行考察调研,获取了震害的第一手资料。首先阐述了汶川地震的特点,分析了结构工程特别是桥梁工程震害产生的原因;研究了桥型与抗震性能的关系,提出在不同场地和不同条件下应采用不同的桥型、高烈度地震区的适宜桥跨结构型式应进行深入研究;探讨了桥梁结构的抗震设防标准问题,建议对重要性公路桥梁,采用中震不坏的设计原则;讨论了概念设计与抗震构造措施对桥梁抗震的重要性;提出应重视减隔震耗能技术在桥梁工程中的应用;根据国外的经验,建议对桥梁结构的抗震评价与加固技术进行深入的探讨和研究;探讨了我国在灾害的应急决策机制、防灾减灾政策和技术研究等方面存在的问题;最后,针对目前我国结构抗震中存在的问题,提出了相应的建议。     

基于秩约束的车辆遮挡点恢复方法

为了恢复车辆跟踪过程中丢失的特征点,提出了一种基于秩约束的车辆遮挡点恢复方法,该方法利用所有车辆图像点组成一个秩3的矩阵,并利用该特性构造一个投影矩阵,利用该投影矩阵求到车辆遮挡点,再将求到的车辆遮挡点代替图像中的车辆遮挡点,经过多次迭代,最后求到车辆遮挡点的真实位置。该方法的优点是所有的图像及图像点都平等地看待,模拟试验和真实试验表明,该方法具有鲁棒性好、收敛性好及误差小等优点。     

基于人车路相互作用的路桥接合处差异沉降控制标准

针对路基和桥梁沉降量不同而造成路桥接合处出现桥头跳车的现象,为确定桥头跳车的定量指标,选取人体加权加速度均方根值作为桥头车辆行驶舒适性的振动指标。将路桥接合处纵断面沉降曲线拟合为指数型曲线之后,建立了路桥接合处路面不平整时域模型,并分析了桥头车辆行驶舒适性的影响因素。分析结果显示车速、路桥过渡段的最大差异沉降量和沉降区段长度对人体的行驶舒适性影响很大。根据分析结果,确定了基于人车路相互作用的路桥接合处差异沉降控制参考标准。研究结果可作为判断桥头是否跳车的依据,也可用于一般路基差异沉降标准的制定。