考虑多维动态特征交互的高速公路实时事故风险建模

为探究天气和道路等特征,以及交通流、天气、道路及时间等多维动态特征之间的交互作用对实时事故风险预测模型精度的影响,本文基于京哈高速公路北京段的事故数据,以及匹配的交通传感器数据、天气数据和道路特征等,构建4个数据集,分别为只包含交通流变量,包含交通流变量、天气及时间特征变量,包含交通流变量、道路及时间特征变量,包含交通流变量、天气、道路及时间特征变量。从考虑多维动态特征的交互效应出发,基于深度交叉网络,提出一种新的实时事故风险预测模型。结果显示,本文所构建的深度交叉网络模型比其他几种实时事故风险预 测方法显示出更高的精度。模型的AUC值(Area Under Curve)可达0.8562,在0.2的概率阈值下, 可以正确分类84.26%的非事故数据和77.55%事故数据。结论表明,本文采用的多维动态特征交互样本条件下的深度交叉网络模型能够有效地预测高速公路交通事故,可为我国高速公路安全管理部门提供理论与技术支持。     

智慧交通与智慧物流

智慧交通和智慧物流是智慧城市建设的重要内容.智慧交通技术的创新和发展，促进了智能交通升级.解决大规模数据计算问题是物流智能化的基础.本次论坛以“智慧交通和智慧物流”为主题，介绍了安全驾驶统一集理论、实践及成果，探讨了新一代信息技术对智能交通发展与创新的推动作用，介绍了无人驾驶技术的总体框架、发展与应用，探讨了智慧物流所面临的大规模数据计算问题及解决方案.     

采制样系统破碎机防堵煤技术改造

通过分析采制样系统破碎机在实际应用中出现的堵煤情况,改变破碎机疏通器结构,减少系统堵煤情况的发生,保证了采制样系统高效稳定运行.     

大型客运站调机运用优化模型及算法

对铁路客运站调机运用进行科学合理的优化分析,对于提高客运站工作效率及保证旅客列车正点到发具有非常重要的意义。通过对客运站调机作业分析,建立客运站调机作业运用优化决策模型,将调机作业顺序模型转化为车辆数固定的、带时间窗口的车辆路径问题。采用模拟退火算法,实现调机运用的合理优化,并对模型和算法进行验证,得出优化效果明显的结论。     

Asynchronous n-step Q-learning adaptive traffic signal control

Ensuring transportation systems are efficient is a priority for modern society. Intersection traffic signal control can be modeled as a sequential decision-making problem. To learn how to make the best decisions, we apply reinforcement learning techniques with function approximation to train an adaptive traffic signal controller. We use the asynchronous n-step Q-learning algorithm with a two hidden layer artificial neural network as our reinforcement learning agent. A dynamic, stochastic rush hour simulation is developed to test the agent’s performance. Compared against traditional loop detector actuated and linear Q-learning traffic signal control methods, our reinforcement learning model develops a superior control policy, reducing mean total delay by up 40% without compromising throughput. However, we find our proposed model slightly increases delay for left turning vehicles compared to the actuated controller, as a consequence of the reward function, highlighting the need for an appropriate reward function which truly develops the desired policy.     

微机及载波控制逆变CO_2焊机的应用前景

通过对载波控制技术在焊机上的应用的研究,集成微机控制技术、IGBT逆变焊机节能技术,研发新型高效节能的微机及载波控制逆变CO2焊机,其效率比传统的硅整流CO2焊机提高30%以上;比传统的IGBT逆变CO2焊机节电10%,效率达到95%.因此,它为耗能巨大的电焊作业提供了节能降耗重要途径.可见这种技术先进、功能强大、人机界面友好、性价比甚高的微机及载波控制的逆变CO2焊机必将成为船舶高效焊接重要的工艺装备.     

Short-term speed predictions exploiting big data on large urban road networks

Big data from floating cars supply a frequent, ubiquitous sampling of traffic conditions on the road network and provide great opportunities for enhanced short-term traffic predictions based on real-time information on the whole network. Two network-based machine learning models, a Bayesian network and a neural network, are formulated with a double star framework that reflects time and space correlation among traffic variables and because of its modular structure is suitable for an automatic implementation on large road networks. Among different mono-dimensional time-series models, a seasonal autoregressive moving average model (SARMA) is selected for comparison. The time-series model is also used in a hybrid modeling framework to provide the Bayesian network with an a priori estimation of the predicted speed, which is then corrected exploiting the information collected on other links. A large floating car data set on a sub-area of the road network of Rome is used for validation. To account for the variable accuracy of the speed estimated from floating car data, a new error indicator is introduced that relates accuracy of prediction to accuracy of measure. Validation results highlighted that the spatial architecture of the Bayesian network is advantageous in standard conditions, where a priori knowledge is more significant, while mono-dimensional time series revealed to be more valuable in the few cases of non-recurrent congestion conditions observed in the data set. The results obtained suggested introducing a supervisor framework that selects the most suitable prediction depending on the detected traffic regimes.     

Incorporating Driver Behaviors in Network Design Problems: Challenges and Opportunities

The goal of a network design problem (NDP) is to make optimal decisions to achieve a certain objective such as minimizing total travel time or maximizing tolls collected in the network. A critical component to NDP is how travelers make their route choices. Researchers in transportation have adopted human decision theories to describe more accurate route choice behaviors. In this paper, we review the NDP with various route choice models: the random utility model (RUM), random regret-minimization (RRM) model, bounded rationality (BR), cumulative prospect theory (CPT), the fuzzy logic model (FLM) and dynamic learning models. Moreover, we identify challenges in applying behavioral route choice models to NDP and opportunities for future research.     

基于深度学习的破碎带盾构施工沉降预测分析

为进一步提高复杂地层条件下盾构沉降预测的准确性，以广州地铁7号线1期工程谢村站-钟村站区间盾构工程为依托，针对破碎带盾构隧道沉降控制难题，提出基于深度学习的人工智能预测模型。通过分析开挖面破碎带分布规律，确定将破碎带面积比作为地层特性参数。采用相关系数矩阵分析不同施工参数与破碎带面积比的相关性，确定采用刀盘转矩代表破碎带面积比实时描述地层分布特性。以刀盘转矩、盾尾间隙与注浆量作为输入值，地面沉降作为输出值训练深度学习模型，并利用训练后的深度学习模型进行沉降预测分析。通过分析预测结果与沉降实测值的对比验证预测模型的有效性。     

广义罚函数法及其在电机优化设计中的应用

提出了一种新的适用于电机优化设计的广义罚函数法，该方法可以避免增目标函数的“病态”特性，具有收敛速度快、自动边界搜索等优点。在电机优化设计中的应用表明，该方法优于ＳＵＭＴ法。