基于遗传算法的船用核动力装置故障诊断

介绍一种将概率因果模型和遗传算法相结合的核动力装置二回路凝给水系统的故障诊断方法,该方法将概率因果模型的似然函数作为遗传算法的适应函数,从而将复杂系统的故障诊断转化为最优问题。仿真结果表明,该方法能够适应诊断过程中出现的不确定性,并实现多故障诊断,具有较高的诊断可靠性和实用性。     

基于裂纹最大张口位移的加筋板弹塑性断裂分析

为了快速方便地求取船舶加筋板塑性性能的两个重要参数—裂纹尖端塑性区半径（Ry）和裂纹尖端张开位移（CTOD）,文章提出了一种基于裂纹最大张口位移（MCOD）来确定加筋板的裂纹尖端塑性区半径和裂纹尖端张开位移的简便方法。该法基于理想弹塑性材料,以提出的裂纹最大张口位移与裂纹尖端塑性区半径及裂纹尖端张开位移的拟合函数关系为基础,考虑了模型尺寸效应、材料特性参数及外载荷的影响。文中还对不同裂纹长度、不同屈服极限条件、不同板/筋刚度比时方法的适用性进行了分析,研究表明：该方法能够消除裂纹长度、屈服极限和外载荷等因素的影响,适用于有限宽船舶加筋板的弹塑性分析。     

Analysing queueing at toll plazas using a coupled,multiple-queue,queueing system model: application to toll plaza design

A vehicle approaching a toll plaza observes the queues at each of the available toll-lanes before choosing which to join. This choice process, the arrival process of vehicles and the service characteristics of the toll-booths, affect the queues and delay the drivers. In this paper, queueing at a toll plaza is modelled as a multiple-queue queueing system where the arrival process to a queue (toll-lane) is dependent on the state of all the queues. In the past, such systems have been modelled mathematically only for two queues and are not applicable for toll plazas with three or more toll-lanes. The proposed model determines the steady-state probability density function (pdf) for the queues at large toll plazas. This study is used to determine the number of toll-lanes or the length of the upstream queueing area required to achieve certain user-specified levels-of-service. Expected delay and maximum queue length are used as level-of-service measures. Indicative design charts are also provided.     

短车道对信号交叉口通行能力影响研究

针对交叉口进口道拓宽后形成的短车道,由于其长度的限制,存在因车辆排队溢出而造成阻塞的问题,结合交通流理论和概率论的相关成果,从定性分析和定量计算两方面研究了短车道排队阻塞对信号交叉口通行能力的影响。针对3种不同的信号相位方案,建立了考虑短车道潜在排队阻塞情况下的车道组通行能力计算模型,并通过仿真对模型进行了检验。在此基础上,进行了短车道条件下相关因素对信号交叉口通行能力影响的敏感性分析。研究发现在交叉口进口道存有短车道条件下,短车道长度、信号相位方案对通行能力起主要影响;同时对通行能力而言,存在最佳信号周期。     

土工标准击实试验数据的简化拟合模型及分析

用标准重型击实试验的方法,取得各种土样的击实数据,采用4次多项式数学模型拟合土样5种不同含水量与干密度之间的关系,并进一步将模型简化为3种试验数据的2次多项式模型,以此确定最佳含水量Xm和最大干密度Pm.运用上述模型计算了55组粗粒土、细粒土等土样的重型击实试验数据,并与目前工程中普遍使用的人工作图法进行比较.结果表明,模型有较高的精度,其中根据2次多项式简化模型确定的Xm和Pm不但精度较高,而且可减少约40%的试验工作量,具有较好的工程实用性.     

防空导弹对直杆型杀伤模型单发杀伤概率计算

针对直杆型杀伤模型,在建立弹目之间有关脱靶量以及脱靶方位角的圆柱坐标系模型的基础上,利用概率密度积分法,首先进行简化解析法计算,对防空导弹单发杀伤概率的值进行估算,然后将制导误差的概率密度函数,战斗部的条件杀伤概率,以及引信战斗部联合杀伤概率等计算公式进行了优化,得出了计算防空导弹单发杀伤概率的流程,并对这一方法进行了验证.     

一种低截获概率雷达的移频干扰研究

设计了一种调频连续波—相移键控复合调制的低截获概率雷达信号,并分析了频率、调频斜率两个特征对信号匹配滤波的影响。从这两个特征入手研究利用特征变化对雷达信号的干扰。详细分析了假多普勒移频干扰对雷达信号的影响和干扰效果,在此基础上提出了锯齿波移频改进干扰方法,并给出了仿真实验,结果表明可以实现较好的干扰效果,验证了移频干扰是对低截获概率雷达的一种有效干扰。     

声吸收系数对声自导鱼雷作用距离影响的仿真分析

鱼雷自导作用距离与声波在海水中的传播损失有关,论文通过研究仿真声吸收系数对鱼雷自导作用距离和鱼雷捕获概率的影响,得出了增加吸收系数能有效减少来袭鱼雷自导作用距离,降低其捕获概率的结论,对水下作战平台防御鱼雷攻击有着重要意义.     

Analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier of tongling yangtze river bridge combined road with railwayEI北大核心

Research purposes: Precise prediction for mechanical behavior of the bridge under ship collision force is important to assess the analysis of train derailment after hitting the pier. This paper focuses on the Tongling Yangtze River Bridge Combined Road with Railway for ship collision simulation, uses the nonlinear finite element software of ANSYS/LS-DYNA to simulate the ship's bow section of 10000 t and 5000 t class hitting bridge tower column at front and axle to 20° of side in highest navigable water level, conventional navigable water level and the minimum navigable water level. Curves of collision force-period at different working conditions are summarized. On this basis, when the impact load affects as input loads, the displacement and acceleration response can be used by finite element analysis under the collision and study the dynamic response of the bridge caused by a train derailment risk. Research conclusions: (1) The impact force of the bridge is largest when a laden ship is hitting the pier at the highest navigable water level. In the most unfavorable condition, the collision have lardge impact on bridge structure and derailment risk of trains. (2) The transverse acceleration of the girder on the top of 2# pier can reach to 0.922 m/s2, but it does not exceed acceleration excitation limit (1 m/s2) when 3# piers are hitted by the 10000 t ship at the peak load of collision, so the probability of train derailment is minimal. (3) Based on the probability formula of the derailment by simplifying risk criteria, the derailment probability of train is 9×10-5~1.5×10-4 during the ship-bridge collision. (4) The research results can provide the reference for train traffic safety on railway bridge caused by ship collisions.     

The effect of green time on stochastic queues at traffic signals

Many analyses of traffic signal queues use Webster and Cobbe's formula, which combines the net effect of the red/green cycle with a term representing stochastic effects, idealised as an M/D/1 queue process having random arrivals and uniform service. Several authors have noted that this component should depend not only on demand intensity but also on throughput capacity in each green period, although an extra empirical term may partially allow for this. Extending the service interval in M/D/1 (M = Markovian, i.e. random, D = deterministic, i.e. uniform, 1 = one server) enables the effect to be reproduced, but no exact expressions for its moments are found. Approximate formulae for the extended mean exist but are accurate only near saturation. The paper derives novel approximations for the equilibrium mean and also variance and utilisation, using functions linking traffic intensity with green period capacity. With three moments, equilibrium probability distributions can be estimated for which a method based on a doubly nested geometric distribution is described.