基于二参数威布尔分布的水润滑橡胶尾轴承可靠性寿命分析

保障船舶尾轴承的可靠性使用是保证船舶安全可靠运行的关键技术之一。针对水润滑橡胶尾轴承运行环境的复杂性、寿命失效数据难以收集等特点,对水润滑橡胶尾轴承模型进行适当简化,通过实验模拟,采用威布尔分布与极大似然估计相结合的方法建立数学模型来间接评估尾轴承的可靠寿命。结果表明,实际数据和数学模型具有较好的拟合精度;船舶水润滑橡胶尾轴承的中位寿命较平均寿命更为保守;进一步提高橡胶材料的承载、抗磨和抗老化能力对提高水润滑橡胶尾轴承的使用寿命极为有利。     

基于裂纹最大张口位移的加筋板弹塑性断裂分析

为了快速方便地求取船舶加筋板塑性性能的两个重要参数—裂纹尖端塑性区半径（Ry）和裂纹尖端张开位移（CTOD）,文章提出了一种基于裂纹最大张口位移（MCOD）来确定加筋板的裂纹尖端塑性区半径和裂纹尖端张开位移的简便方法。该法基于理想弹塑性材料,以提出的裂纹最大张口位移与裂纹尖端塑性区半径及裂纹尖端张开位移的拟合函数关系为基础,考虑了模型尺寸效应、材料特性参数及外载荷的影响。文中还对不同裂纹长度、不同屈服极限条件、不同板/筋刚度比时方法的适用性进行了分析,研究表明：该方法能够消除裂纹长度、屈服极限和外载荷等因素的影响,适用于有限宽船舶加筋板的弹塑性分析。     

数字相敏检测的一种最大后验概率方法

本文基于最大后验概率估值原理，提出一种新的相敬检测方法。文中给出了判决量的计算公式和所提出方法的数字信号处理器实现结构。计算机模拟结果表明，所提出的方法较Ｓａｍｉｊｅ所提出的正交采样数字相敏方法有更好的检测性能。     

磨粒分布函数及可靠性数学用于部分弹流中接触：概率与磨损研究

本文提出一种实际机械中的润滑均为部分弹流状态的新观点.文中利用磨粒尺寸分布函数及可靠性数学方法解决了部分弹流中接触概率的计算和磨损规律,并进一步提出了设计计算时,接触概率的控制规范.     

信息熵理论在计算断面含沙量分布中的运用

运用信息论中的最大熵原理导出悬沙颗粒所处位置高度y的概率密度函数p(y).由p(y)与相对含沙量的关系得出适合于断面任一垂线的含沙量分布公式,在此基础上结合边界及流速情况提出了便于工程运用的针对宽浅河槽及非宽浅河槽断面含沙量分布的计算方法,计算结果与实测结果吻合良好.     

不同阶段的轨道交通定价模型研究

公共交通票价制定的合理与否对引导出行者出行方式选择,充分发挥各交通方式的效能具有重要作用。将出行者公交出行成本分为货币成本、时间成本和舒适性成本,确定各成本影响居民出行决策的权重。以轨道交通发展为轴线,基于城市轨道交通在不同发展阶段的差异性,研究不同阶段适用的定价模型,最后以南京市为例进行模型验证。     

Eco-routing problem considering fuel consumption and probabilistic travel time budget

Road transportation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. To reduce energy consumption and alleviate this environmental problem, this study aims to develop an eco-routing algorithm for navigation systems. Considering that both fuel consumption and travel time are important factors when planning a trip, the proposed routing algorithm finds a path that consumes the minimum amount of gasoline while ensuring that the travel time satisfies a specified travel time budget and an on-time arrival probability. We first develop link-based fuel consumption models based on vehicle dynamics, and then the Lagrangian-relaxation-based heuristic approach is proposed to efficiently solve this NP-hard problem. The performance of the proposed eco-routing strategy is verified in a large-scale network with real travel time and fuel consumption data. Specifically, a sensitivity analysis of fuel consumption reduction for travel demand and travel time buffer is discussed in our simulation study.     

基于贝叶斯网络的港口生产安全评价方法

将基于贝叶斯网络的概率安全评价方法引入港口生产作业安全评价中,提出了将故障树分析法转换为贝叶斯网络的步骤,建立了基于贝叶斯网络的安全评价模型。通过在贝叶斯网络模型上进行推理求解,进行前向的风险预测和后向的诊断分析。最后通过对码头前沿机损的安全评价实例说明该评价方法的合理性和有效性。     

Effect of freeboard and metacentric height on capsizing probability of purse seiners in irregular beam seas

The probability of capsize of purse seiners in irregular beam seas and the effect of freeboard height and metacentric height on trapped water on the deck was investigated. The aim was to quantify a safety level that can be achieved by direct stability assessment for this type of fishing vessel. The amount of trapped water on deck was numerically estimated using a hydraulic flow assumption. The long-term capsizing probabilities were estimated using a piecewise linear approach together with wave statistics from major Japanese fishing areas. The estimated safety level of capsizing probability was compared with that obtained by the IMO weather criterion and by the water-on-deck criterion of the IMO Torremolinos Convention. Numerical results for four typical Japanese purse seiners indicated that the effect of freeboard, on the amount of trapped water on deck, is more important than that of the metacentric height. Besides the metacentric height and the freeboard, it was shown that the danger of capsizing is a function of the rise of floor. The safety level obtained by the capsizing probability approach is generally higher than that based on the IMO weather criterion. However, the water-on-deck criterion provides a higher safety level than the capsizing probability approach for ships with a low rise of floor.     

北京市购车摇号阶梯概率规则优化研究

由于机动车保有量增速过快,北京市于 2011年起实施摇号购车政策控制增速.为解决部分群体“久摇不中”的现象,2014年起实施“阶梯概率”规则,但效果并不显著.本文在分析北京市现行摇号规则的基础上,建立演化模型,用以描述不同群体的概率变化情况,分析现行 “阶梯概率”合理性,并提出改进的“阶梯概率”规则.通过分析发现：现行“阶梯概率”规则并不能持续提升较早参与摇号群体的中签概率,其原因主要在于概率提升程度不足;改进后的“阶梯概率”规则,在调整强度取值合理时,可使得所有群体的中签概率均随时间而增大,其缺点是降低了新参与摇号群体当期的中签概率.研究结论为管理者进行科学摇号提供理论支持.