Part 2. Beyond single-outcome models: Decompositions of aggregate and disaggregate road safety risk

The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.     

Shipping inspections,detentions, and incidents: an empirical analysis of risk dimensions

ABSTRACT

Inspections play a key role in keeping vessels safe. Inspection authorities employ different policies to decide which vessels to inspect, including type of vessel, age, and flag. Attention for vessel history is usually restricted only to past detentions. This paper demonstrates that the correlation between the probabilities of detention and (very serious and serious) incidents is very low and that proactive prevention of future incidents is improved by accounting for both risk dimensions, that is, by combining past incident and detention information for targeting high-risk vessels for inspection. Five combined methods are presented to classify vessels based on these two risk dimensions, each of which involves extensive sets of factors. These combined classification methods have predictive power for future incidents. Depending on the applied inspection rate, incorporation of incident risk improves inspection hit rates for vessels with future incidents by 30–50% compared to using only detention information. It is recommended to focus on vessels where both risks are relatively high. A practical example shows how the methods can be applied for inspection selection and for prioritizing inspection areas defined in terms of eight risk domains that include collisions, groundings, engine and hull failures, loss of life, fire, and pollution.     

Shipboard safety: exploring organizational and regulatory factors

ABSTRACT

How vessel crews perceive safety on board (shipboard safety) is a useful indication for the general safety level. In this study a theoretical model was explored, involving factors that could possibly influence shipboard safety. Based on a survey questionnaire (n = 244), safety climate, shipowner efficiency demands and regulatory activities were investigated as influencing factors. Structural equation modelling gave support to the theoretical model and the findings illustrate that simultaneous involvement of various levels of the maritime system (crews, shipowners, regulators) can be effective for safety improvements. The study indicates that shipboard safety is affected by actions and prioritization by external actors through safety climate. It suggests that the maritime industry will profit from monitoring safety climate as part of the ongoing risk considerations, as a supplement to reactive parameters such as accident statistics.     

A fuzzy failure mode and effects approach to analyse concentrated inspection campaigns on board ships

ABSTRACT

Maritime actions against substandard operations of ships are a great deal of memorandum of understanding (MoUs) under regional basis agreements among port state control (PSC) organisations. Herein, concentrated inspection campaigns (CIC), performed by the different members of MoUs in certain periods, are a monitoring strategy to effectively control the core operational matters encountered in fire-safety systems, propulsion and auxiliary machinery system, lifesaving appliances, working conditions on board ships, etc. This paper proposes a quantified maritime safety analysis based on fuzzy failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to evaluate CIC database of MoUs in order to achieve advance creative solutions. Demonstration studies are performed on the special database on fire-safety system deficiencies. Since the fuzzy FMEA outcomes point out the risk prioritisation numbers and relevant control options, the paper attempts to transform CIC feedback into useful information in terms of enhancing the ship PSC inspection concept (e-PSC inspection). The paper theoretically contributes to safety analysis methods in literature while demonstration of e-PSC inspections offers an insight into maritime industry in safety improvement.     

基于熵权-TOPSIS-灰色关联的航道宽度设计结果评价*

通过对国内外3种不同的航道宽度设计规范进行分析对比,从通航安全和效率的角度建立综合评价指标,旨在 对不同的航道宽度设计结果进行排序,为航道宽度的合理设计提供借鉴。建立熵权-TOPSIS-灰色关联度综合评价模型,采 用熵权法获取各指标的客观性权重,分别获取备选方案与正理想解和负理想解的正、负灰色关联度,综合得出各方案的灰 色关联相对贴近度,从而进行方案排序与优选。并假定评价环境,对3种不同的设计规范进行了实例分析与评价,从安全、 效益和综合水平上给出了各规范在假定环境下的设计效果排序情况。评价结果基本符合实际情况,可以对航道宽度设计规 范的进一步研究与发展提供一定的基础。     

论船舶安全检查与海事调查的统合

针对船舶安全检查与海事调查条块分割的现状,从理论和实践两方面阐述了两者的内在统一性。同时论证了船舶安全检查与海事调查统合的理论基础,并提出了对二者进行整合具体设想。     

18000TEU集装箱船进出洋山港通航安全研究

文中根据洋山港主航道和集装箱码头现状,结合18 000TEU集装箱航行特点,在分析水域通航环境影响因素和港区现有的航行保障措施的基础上,提出进出港航行注意事项和加强通航安全管理的建议,以保障进出港航行安全。     

岸桥双箱吊具双箱检测保护系统升级改造

为确保岸桥双箱吊具双箱检测保护系统的安全运行,对其进行了升级改造.分析岸桥双箱吊具使用情况和存在问题.提出双箱检测系统升级方案设计.改造后有效地排除了安全隐患.     

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冰雪天气极大困扰寒冷地区高速公路的冬季通行,对公路交通安全造成严重影响.分析道面冰雪检测与预测的方法,基于公路分层的热传导原理提出冰雪生成模型.通过采集公路物理属性数据(经纬度、公路导热性等)和气象数据(大气温度,降雪量,露点温度等),模型滚动更新,自动完成公路冰雪状况的检测与预警,预测时长达3-6 h,为交通管制、除冰机械调配及作业范围提供技术支持.以新疆赛果高速为案例,布设气象检测与预警系统,与安全性评价报告(两年前发布)的预测结果进行对比,交通事故发生数量低于预测值,死亡人数远低于预测值.     

铁路电气化改造对军专线油库安全的影响

铁路的电气化改造在带来运输效益的同时,由于其高压、强电磁辐射的特点也给电气化铁路附近的军用油仓库带来了巨大的危险隐患。分别从军专线电气化、正线电气化、军专线长度及位置、大地导电率、钢轨对地电位差六方面分析了电气化对油库安全的影响。为做好油库电气化工程防护提供依据。