鱼雷攻击潜艇的毁伤效果评估模型研究

客观、准确地评价鱼雷攻击潜艇的毁伤效果是鱼雷与潜艇对抗的最后一环,也是评价鱼雷武器系统作战效能的重要指标。本文在现有毁伤概率计算方法的基础上引进了舱段的毁伤程度、要害指数、命中概率、毁伤效果累积系数和齐射毁伤系数等参数,建立了一种比较全面的用来评价鱼雷攻击潜艇毁伤效果的数学模型,并给出了典型应用。     

路基压实质量的影响因素分析

针对公路路基压实质量在公路施工中的重要性,结合已有的工程施工情况,总结出在路基压实中应注意的问题,并从筑路材料、压实设备、压实工艺等方面进行了分析和讨论。     

城市交通系统通行性影响因素及计算理论

文章分析了震后城市交通系统通行性的影响因素,提出了包含路段单元通行概率、路段连通概率及路网连通概率的城市交通系统通行性计算理论,为城市路网的连通可靠性评价提供参考。     

Soil Body Deformation Caused by Construction of a Double-Line Shield Tunnel with Multiple Factors北大核心CSCD

Considering the influence of many factors (soil loss, frontal additional thrust, the friction force of the shield shell and the additional grouting force), a method for improving the uniform soil body movement model is pro-posed, and a mechanical calculation model is established to study the calculation method for soil body deformation caused by double-line parallel shield driving. Based on the Mindlin solutions of elastic mechanics, the theoretical solutions for soil body deformations caused by the last three factors are calculated; considering the uniform soil body movement model, the theoretical solutions for soil body deformations caused by soil loss are calculated, then the to-tal theoretical solutions for soil body deformations under multiple factors are obtained by means of superposition. The vertical surface settlement, vertical horizontal displacement, and vertical displacements of the soil body at different depths of Hangzhou Metro Line 1 are calculated to analyze the variation laws. Meanwhile the influential factors for horizontal displacement variation are studied. The research shows that with a change of depth, the settlement of the soil body changes within the scope of 10 to 13 m in the horizontal direction near where the maximum settlement occurs;the direction of the horizontal displacement of the soil body changes with a change of the positional relationship be-tween the calculation points and the tunnel; and with an increase of interval J for the two tunnels, the horizontal dis-placement of the soil body of a deep double-line tunnel decreases while the displacement near the surface changes slightly. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Empirical analysis of short period traffic counts and their efficiency: the case of Indian traffic

Short period traffic counts (SPTCs) are conducted routinely to estimate the annual average daily traffic (AADT) at a particular site. This paper uses Indian traffic volume data to methodically and extensively study the effect of four aspects related to the design of SPTCs. These four aspects are: (i) for how long, (ii) on which days should SPTCs be carried out, (iii) how many times, and (iv) on which months should SPTCs be carried out? The analyses indicate that the best durations for conducting SPTCs are 3 days (starting with a Thursday) and 7 days, for total traffic and truck traffic, respectively. Further, these counts should be repeated twice a year keeping a separation of two months between the counts to obtain good estimates of AADT at minimal cost. An additional outcome of this study has been the determination of seasonal factor values for roads in developing economies, like India.     

不同因素对潜堤波浪传播的影响

针对波浪穿过梯形潜堤时的波浪形态沿程变化问题,以梯形潜堤为研究对象,通过二维水槽试验,研究梯形潜堤上规则波的传播特征。以比波高为参数分析不同波浪要素(波高、周期和水深等)对波浪传播变形的影响。试验结果表明,其他条件不变时,入射波高越大、波浪周期越小、堤顶淹没水深越小时,波高在潜堤上方衰减越明显。在有足够水深,且波高较小时,波浪对潜堤均有良好的穿透性;波高较大时,波浪在潜堤上部发生破碎,波浪穿过潜堤后波高衰减,此时潜堤的消波作用明显;在波浪不发生破碎情况下,较长周期波浪在潜堤顶部比波高增大,且出现双峰值。     

船体板格极限强度数值计算影响因素及敏感分析

船体板格极限强度的有限元计算方法应用广泛,但其计算方法具有一定的不稳定性,计算结果受多种因素的影响.本文针对船体板格有限元计算方法的不稳定性进行研究,通过将有限元计算结果与其他学者的研究成果进行对比,验证本文所采用的有限元方法的可靠性,然后针对板格材料、初始缺陷、网格密度、边界条件等几种因素的敏感性进行具体研究,发现理想应力应变关系会使得结果偏于危险.网格形状和网格密度对于结果均有影响,边界条件对于有限元结果有影响,最大误差在7.2%,并且模型3会使得结果偏于危险.初始缺陷是一敏感因素,最大误差在20%,因此需要根据实际缺陷选取合适的屈曲模态和比例因子.     

船闸闸室结构的船-墙碰撞三维有限元分析

以江苏某重力式船闸闸室结构为例,采用ABAQUS软件建立船舶-闸室结构-土体三维有限元模型,对船舶撞击闸室进行瞬态动力分析,得到不同工况下的撞击力时程曲线和撞击力值等结果。研究结果表明:船舶撞击闸室的法向平均撞击力大小与船舶排水量的12次方、撞击速度的1次方、撞击角度的1次方成线性关系;将软件模拟的船舶法向撞击力数值与依据JTJ 307—2001《船闸水工建筑物设计规范》得到的计算值比较,发现规范公式得到的数值普遍偏小,低估了过闸船舶撞击力的影响。     

半刚性基层与沥青面层粘结性能影响因素

借鉴国外LPDS剪切试验方法,通过自行设计的室内直剪试验和斜剪试验,以剪切强度和单位剪切强度(剪切强度与破坏变形的商)作为评价指标,研究了沥青混合料、粘层材料、半刚性基层材料、沥青混合料与粘层材料的界面、粘层材料与半刚性基层的界面对沥青面层和半刚性基层之间抗剪切强度的影响。分析结果表明:提高沥青混合料公称最大粒径和压实度将有利于增强层间粘结性;高强度、粗糙、密实型的半刚性材料也将有效改善基层与沥青面层的粘结性;粘度不是选择粘层材料的主要因素,应结合工程实际,通过试验选择粘层材料的品种与剂量;基层表面清理是提高层间粘结性的重要措施,透层油应在基层清理后撒布,剂量宜为0.3~0.6 L.m-2;在层间热沥青上撒布一定的单一粒径,较粗规格,且与沥青粘附性较好的碱性碎石不仅具有工程意义,对提高层间粘结水平也有较明显作用。     

电动自行车事故和车牌使用影响因素分析

为分析电动自行车事故和车牌使用影响因素,采用问卷调查和电话访谈方式采集了宁波市862个电动自行车用户有效样本,利用统计学方法构建了Bivariate Probit(BP)联立方程模型,计算了显著影响因素的边际效应,量化分析了电动自行车事故和车牌使用影响因素效用,并检验了两者之间潜在的关联关系.结果表明:BP模型不仅可以识别电动自行车事故和车牌使用的影响因素,而且可以有效刻画两者之间的潜在联系;两者之间关联系数为-0.475,表明电动自行车车牌的使用可以降低电动自行车事故概率;模型结果显示性别、年龄、驾驶执照、家庭是否拥有小汽车、电动自行车驾龄、法律遵守程度、驾驶行为、危险感知度等具有统计显著性,是影响电动自行车事故和车牌使用的显著因素.