四心圆弧拟合椭圆的解析算法及其最优解

针对四心圆弧拟合椭圆没有准确的误差算法导至拟合椭圆的精度较模糊这一问题,根据图形分析确定了四心圆弧拟合椭圆的定解区间,导出了拟合椭圆的四心圆弧法向误差解析式,并根据法向误差确定了四心圆弧拟合椭圆的最小误差带,从而确定了四心圆弧拟合椭圆的最高精度,使四心圆弧是否可以拟合给定形状公差的椭圆有了准确的判断依据．     

Robust Principal Component Test in Gross Error Detection and Identification

Principle component analysis (PCA) based chi-square test is more sensitive to subtle gross errors and has greater power to correctly detect gross errors than classical chi-square test. However, classical principal component test (PCT) is non-robust and can be very sensitive to one or more outliers. In this paper, a Huber function liked robust weight factor was added in the collective chi-square test to eliminate the influence of gross errors on the PCT. Meanwhile, robust chi-square test was applied to modified simultaneous estimation of gross error (MSEGE) strategy to detect and identify multiple gross errors. Simulation results show that the proposed robust test can reduce the possibility of type II errors effectively. Adding robust chi-square test into MSEGE does not obviously improve the power of multiple gross error identification, the proposed approach considers the influence of outliers on hypothesis statistic test and is more reasonable.     

Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

Traffic forecasts are employed in the toll road sector, inter alia, by private sector investors to gauge the bankability of candidate investment projects. Although much is written in the literature about the theory and practice of traffic forecasting, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the predictive accuracy of traffic forecasting models. This paper addresses that shortcoming by reporting the results from the largest study of toll road forecasting performance ever conducted. The author had access to commercial-in-confidence documentation released to project financiers and, over a 4-year period, compiled a database of predicted and actual traffic usage for over 100 international, privately financed toll road projects. The findings suggest that toll road traffic forecasts are characterised by large errors and considerable optimism bias. As a result, financial engineers need to ensure that transaction structuring remains flexible and retains liquidity such that material departures from traffic expectations can be accommodated.

黄土路基沉降变权重组合模型预测方法研究

利用兰武二线路基沉降观测数据,对黄土路基沉降变权重组合模型预测方法进行分析研究。研究结果表明:根据拟合精度选择单个模型时,要尽量选择相对误差偏离方向相反且大小相差不多的单个模型;在单个模型预测精度相差不大时,单个模型的数量越多,组合模型的精度会越高;单个模型的拟合精度越高,对应的组合模型的拟合精度也越高;组合模型相对误差与单个模型的相对误差的偏离方向和大小有关;在相同预测精度要求下,组合模型需要的观测时间比单个模型要短。     

形位精度统计分析中常值系统性误差的确定

本文分析了常值系统性误差的传统确定方法不适用于形位精度统计分析的原因,并提出了形位精度统计分析中常值系统性误差的确定方法。     

尺寸误差对平行四杆机构动态性能的影响分析

根据机构运动学理论，主要分析尺寸误差对平行四杆机构运动性能的影响，从制造、安装方面提出保证平行四杆机构动态性能的主要措施，为机构的受力分析及精度设计提供理论基础．     

When is big data big enough? Implications of using GPS-based surveys for travel demand analysis

A number of studies in the last decade have argued that Global Positioning Systems (GPS) based survey offer the potential to replace traditional travel diary surveys. GPS-based surveys impose lower respondent burden, offer greater spatiotemporal precision and incur fewer monetary costs. However, GPS-based surveys do not collect certain key inputs required for the estimation of travel demand models, such as the travel mode(s) taken or the trip purpose, relying instead on data-processing procedures to infer this information. This study assesses the impact that errors in inference can have on travel demand models estimated using data from GPS-based surveys and proposes ways in which these errors can be controlled for during both data collection and model estimation. We use simulated datasets to compare performance across different sample sizes, inference accuracies, model complexities and estimation methods. Findings from the simulated datasets are corroborated with real data collected from individuals living in the San Francisco Bay Area, United States. Results indicate that the benefits of using GPS-based surveys will vary significantly, depending upon the sample size of the data, the accuracy of the inference algorithm and the desired complexity of the travel demand model specification. In many cases, gains in the volume of data that can potentially be retrieved using GPS devices are found to be offset by the loss in quality caused by inaccuracies in inference. This study makes the argument that passively collected GPS-based surveys may never entirely replace surveys that require active interaction with study participants.     

顶管工程的测量监督及误差校正

通过对沈阳市顶管施工中所发生误差原因的分析 ,结合目前顶管施工中的测量监督及误差校正方法 ,列举了顶管施工中存在的问题并提出建议和整改措施     

提高冲焊桥壳机械加工精度方法的探讨

通过在桥壳的机械加工过程中,导致的工艺系统误差、系统受力变形误差、系统热变形误差、工件内应力所引起的误差的方法探讨,从而掌握其变化的基本规律,采取相应的措施减少加工误差,提高加工精度。     

基于线形识别的索力测量方法影响因素研究

拉索是索承重桥梁重要的传力构件,其受力状态是反映桥梁健康状态的重要指标,准确测量拉索的索力对保障桥梁结构的安全至关重要。结合数字图像处理技术和拉索计算理论,提出了一种基于线形识别的索力测量方法,可实现非接触式无损测量,设备简单,操作方便,效率高。通过高精度的图像采集及数字图像处理技术进行拉索线形的识别与提取,获取拉索有限空间点的几何坐标,再基于悬链线理论和过“三定点”的精确线形数值计算方法,即可快速计算出索力。通过缩尺模型试验验证了该方法可适用于不同长度、不同直径、不同倾角的索力测量,测量误差为2%～5%。采用数值仿真的方法,探究了温度变化、拉索弯曲刚度、减振装置等单一因素变化对索力测量精度的影响规律,并基于模型试验,剖析了图像采集角度及采集距离对测量精度的影响。结果表明：拉索的弯曲刚度、边界条件对短索测量精度的影响较大,拉索温度的变化对测量精度影响较小,减振装置对测量精度的影响随减振装置刚度提高而增大,拉索图像正面平拍和近距离采集可提高方法的精度;基于以上分析,建立了考虑弯曲刚度和减振装置影响的索力修正方法,修正后索力误差为1%～2%。