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为减少电动自行车与机动车事故造成的损失,定量剖析不同因素对事故严重程度的差异性影响至关重要。基于上虞区2018年10304起电动自行车与机动车事故,分析该类事故的严重性分布情况和时间与空间分布特性。以事故严重性为因变量,将其有序分为未受伤、轻伤及重伤事故3类,从时间、空间、道路、环境、骑行者及车型6个方面,选取17个事故严重性潜在影响因素,
采用多项Logit模型、有序Logit模型、广义有序Logit模型及偏比例优势模型进行拟合度对比分析,并以最佳模型(偏比例优势模型)和边际效应,量化分析各因素对事故严重性影响的显著性与差异性。结果表明,除节日类型、车道限速、车流相交角及温度对事故严重性影响不显著外,其余
13个因素都有显著影响,事故时间、光线亮度、骑者性别、骑者年龄、车辆类型及电动自行车类型违反平行线假设;对该类事故严重性影响最大的前4个因素为电动自行车类型、机动车类型、骑行者年龄与性别,其边际效应绝对值的最大值均超过61%,事故区位、道路类型及光线亮度的影响较大(20%~30%),事故时间和风力等级影响较小(10%~20%),而季节、事故位置、慢行干扰度和天
气状况的影响最小(≤8%)。基于各因素的差异性影响,为交通管理部门提出了有效改善建议。 相似文献
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在论述加强民航应急输送保障预案研究重要意义的基础上,阐述了民航应急输送保障的新特点,拟制民航应急输送保障预案的要求,探讨了应付突发事件民航应急输送保障预案的内容及处置办法。为保证民航在应付突发事件中顺利实施部队应急输送提供理论依据与技术支持。 相似文献
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斜交转正交梯形装配式桥梁设计 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对装配式桥梁标准梁段跨越斜交地形、地物提出了采用斜交转正交梯形装配式桥梁的设计思路,并根据具体工程设计计算的结果,验证了该设计方法的可行性,为该类桥梁设计提供了思路。 相似文献
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针对交通事故中汽车的碰撞问题,运用动量守恒定理和能量守恒定律着重研究了汽车追尾碰撞情况下,汽车碰撞前部主要的结构吸能的优化方法。基于非线性ANSYS/LS-DYNA有限元软件,分析了在车辆的前纵梁部分薄壁梁表面开矩形吸能孔的可行性,取得了优化的薄壁梁的有限元模型,并利用得到的优化模型进行了保险杠碰撞的力学分析。 相似文献
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将欧洲某型城轨车辆的三维模型导入Altair HyperWorks软件中,在HyperMesh模块下建立有限元碰撞模型,导入到LS-DYNA中对其进行大变形碰撞仿真。对优化前后结构的仿真结果进行对比分析,确定了防撞结构的设计,验证了车体设计的合理性。 相似文献
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The objective of this research is to identify the factors differentiating between single heavy vehicle collisions at intersections and midblocks by using a binary logit model. Our results show that single vehicle crashes involving heavy vehicle at intersections are more likely to occur on main roads and highways, whereas crashes at midblocks are more likely to occur on divided two‐way roads, roads with special facilities or features (e.g. bridge) and roads with a higher percentage of heavy vehicle traffic. Intersection crashes are also more likely to involve vehicles that are turning left or right, resulting in angle crashes and vehicle overturn, whereas midblock crashes are more likely to involve vehicles on higher posted speed roads. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Traffic congestion has been a growing issue in many metropolitan areas during recent years, which necessitates the identification of its key contributors and development of sustainable strategies to help decrease its adverse impacts on traffic networks. Road incidents generally and crashes specifically have been acknowledged as the cause of a large proportion of travel delays in urban areas and account for 25% to 60% of traffic congestion on motorways. Identifying the critical determinants of travel delays has been of significant importance to the incident management systems, which constantly collect and store the incident duration data. This study investigates the individual and simultaneous differential effects of the relevant determinants on motorway crash duration probabilities. In particular, it applies parametric Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) hazard‐based models to develop in‐depth insights into how the crash‐specific characteristic and the associated temporal and infrastructural determinants impact the duration. AFT models with both fixed and random parameters have been calibrated on one year of traffic crash records from two major Australian motorways in South East Queensland, and the differential effects of determinants on crash survival functions have been studied on these two motorways individually. A comprehensive spectrum of commonly used parametric fixed parameter AFT models, including generalized gamma and generalized F families, has been compared with random parameter AFT structures in terms of goodness of fit to the duration data, and as a result, the random parameter Weibull AFT model has been selected as the most appropriate model. Significant determinants of motorway crash duration included traffic diversion requirement, crash injury type, number and type of vehicles involved in a crash, day of week and time of day, towing support requirement and damage to the infrastructure. A major finding of this research is that the motorways under study are significantly different in terms of crash durations; such that motorway 1 exhibits durations that are on average 19% shorter compared with the durations on motorway 2. The differential effects of explanatory variables on crash durations are also different on the two motorways. The detailed presented analysis confirms that looking at the motorway network as a whole, neglecting the individual differences between roads, can lead to erroneous interpretations of duration and inefficient strategies for mitigating travel delays along a particular motorway. 相似文献
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