On incentives and optimal effort to improve bus transit performance

ABSTRACT

This paper studies incentive-based subsidy to transit systems to improve performance. It derives a formula for optimal effort that equalizes marginal cost and marginal benefit and derives some principles from it among which is that the larger the value of a transit system’s performance criterion the larger the effort it will exert to improve it. Next, using a constrained cost minimization approach it derives a nonlinear cost function that includes optimal effort and estimates it using an unbalanced panel data of single mode U.S. bus transit systems. The results show that optimal effort is the equivalent of seven full-time employees (15,243 labor hours) per year and in real terms it results in 0.6% cost saving (US$198,331) and US$836,796 in incentive subsidy per observation. The implications of these findings are examined.     

Vehicle insurance and the risk of road traffic accidents

Given the upward trend in incidences of road traffic accidents (RTAs) over recent years, in order to mitigate the financial losses arising from such accidents, governments around the world nowadays generally encourage, or even require, drivers to purchase appropriate vehicle insurance. The primary aim of this study is to examine whether RTAs are directly related to the purchase of vehicle insurance, with our examination of data on vehicle damage insurance policyholders revealing that those drivers who purchase more insurance coverage have a higher probability of being involved in accidents, as a result of which, they will tend to submit more claims. This indicates that insurance coverage might contain information which can be used to assess the probability risk levels of RTAs. We also find that drivers with less safety awareness will tend to purchase more coverage, and that those who purchase more coverage will, in turn, tend to have more accidents and submit more claims. Our findings, which provide a number of road traffic policy implications, would appear to justify the use of the bonus–malus system.     

道路运输企业发展现代物流切入点选择方法研究

针对道路运输企业发展现代物流切入点选择的重要性和风险性,文章在分析道路运输企业发展物流切入点的基础上,建立了切入点选择的评价指标体系,提出一种以行业吸引力竞争能力矩阵为基础,并综合运用模糊评判法、层次分析法和德尔菲法的切入点选择方法,最后在某道路运输企业发展现代物流切入点选择中得到应用。     

基于图形叠置法的铁路选线环境影响综合评价研究

铁路选线若不合理,将破坏生态环境、增加大气污染、影响自然景观及增加噪声污染。利用基于地理信息系统(GIS)的图形叠置法,研究适合我国国情的铁路选线环境影响评价体系。选择大气、噪声、生态、景观四种环境影响评价因子,确定其权重,制作其敏感区等级图,加权得到复合图,由此确定最小环境敏感走廊,设计线路方案。以应用实例具体计算3个方案的环境影响值,选出最佳方案。     

海港装卸机械用钢丝绳的选择

通过对海港装卸机械用钢丝绳的工作特点和应用现状的分析,针对优化轮绳径比对钢丝绳使用寿命的影响,提出在注重钢丝绳结构选择的同时,还应注重钢丝绳直径的合理选择.     

浅设高等级分路的绿化

介绍了高等级公路绿化中植物的选择,公路绿化的土壤问题和管理养护问题。     

进藏交通干线减灾选线理论原则

根据青藏高原及进藏公路、铁路的特点,提出进藏交通干线减灾选线的6项理论原则:与山系正交,以高桥长隧垂直爬上第三地势阶梯;分段展线,尽早脱离河谷上行至高原面;绕避为主,沿河线路跨河、进洞躲避山地灾害群;山地灾害坡向分异,沿河线路多经阴坡、少经阳坡;宁高勿低,沿河线路按重灾群灾上界高度定线;高原面线路多填少挖,按最佳填方高度定线。     

加权和法在船型优化论证中的应用研究

本文参照思维逻辑的基本原理,分析了专家们加权的过程,找出了专家们加权的机理,用模糊数学方法,建立了模拟专家们加权过程的数学模型,并用C语言使之在微机上得以实现。此外,本文还根据专家系统的基本思想,对指标的选择问题进行了初步探讨,用PROLOG语言将专家们的知识表达出来,再用接口技术将两门语言连接起来,构成了完整的程序——INDEX。本文最后以南京—香港航线上的散装水泥船为例,用INDEX程序进行运算,选出了指标和它们的加权数,基本上解决了指标的选择和加权问题。     

灰色预测的拓扑选择在运量预测中的运用

运用灰色系统理论及GM模型拓朴选择,建立了相应的GM(1,1)模型,运用于运量预测,并以港口吞吐量与货物周转量的预测为例进行校验。结果表明,新息GM(1,1)模型,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型与原始模型(全数据GM(1,1)模型)三者比较,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的精度最高,值得推荐在运量预测中采用。     

HX_D1型机车高强度不锈钢牵引销的研制

文章主要对HXD1型机车高强度不锈钢牵引销的国产化研制过程进行介绍,重点从材料选型、机械性能确定、热处理制造工艺、表面硬化技术等方面进行论述和分析。