Bayesian statistical data assimilation for ecosystem models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

This study considers advanced statistical approaches for sequential data assimilation. These are explored in the context of nowcasting and forecasting using nonlinear differential equation based marine ecosystem models assimilating sparse and noisy non-Gaussian multivariate observations. The statistical framework uses a state space model with the goal of estimating the time evolving probability distribution of the ecosystem state. Assimilation of observations relies on stochastic dynamic prediction and Bayesian principles. In this study, a new sequential data assimilation approach is introduced based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The ecosystem state is represented by an ensemble, or sample, from which distributional properties, or summary statistical measures, can be derived. The Metropolis-Hastings based MCMC approach is compared and contrasted with two other sequential data assimilation approaches: sequential importance resampling, and the (approximate) ensemble Kalman filter (including computational comparisons). A simple illustrative application is provided based on a 0-D nonlinear plankton ecosystem model with multivariate non-Gaussian observations of the ecosystem state from a coastal ocean observatory. The MCMC approach is shown to be straightforward to implement and to effectively characterize the non-Gaussian ecosystem state in both nowcast and forecast experiments. Results are reported which illustrate how non-Gaussian information originates, and how it can be used to characterize ecosystem properties.     

基于粒子群优化算法的地铁列车节能运行研究

在建立地铁列车运行物理模型的基础上,采用粒子群优化算法搜寻列车区间运行的惰行点位置,优化列车区间运行时间及运行能耗。基于南京地铁2号线实际线路模型,利用粒子群优化算法求解定时节能策略中列车区间运行惰行点位置,计算区间运行时间、能耗及回馈能量。结果显示,区间运行时间增加5.5%,列车运行能耗相应降低18.73%。     

基于颗粒流理论的深海沉积物土力学特性研究

深海沉积物剪切与承载特性是决定深海采矿车行走稳定性重要参数。分析深海沉积物的物理力学性质, 基于颗粒流理论,建立了具有高孔隙比、高含水率和长条状等特性的深海沉积物颗粒流模型。开展不同深度下的十字板剪切和静力触探的数值模拟,获得了深海沉积物剪切应力-转角及贯入阻力-深度曲线,初步阐明深海沉积物剪切与贯入细观破坏机理。研究表明,深海沉积物的剪切应力-转角及贯入阻力-深度的模拟曲线与原位测试曲线吻合,验证了深海沉积物颗粒流模型及数值模拟方法的正确性。深海沉积物的剪切与贯入破坏形式主要为沉积物颗粒的挤压破坏,且应力集中于触地边缘。     

船舶绿色涂装装备与颗粒物排放治理技术

针对船舶涂装污染物排放问题,进行绿色表面除锈清理和大包装喷涂工艺装备研发,结合涂装工艺改进与装备升级,开展涂装粉尘、漆雾和挥发性有机污染物(Volatile Organic Compound,VOC)排放治理技术研究。绿色涂装工艺装备可有效减少粉尘,VOC最大减排率达12.5%。颗粒物治理技术综合应用结果表明,绿色涂装工艺装备的应用和涂装工艺改进可有效减少污染物排放。     

A numerical study of the effects of bottom and sidewall stiffeners on sloshing behavior considering roll resonant motion

In the present study, aiming to provide practical guidance for the structural design, the effects of the small bottom and sidewall stiffeners on sloshing loads in shallow and intermediate liquid conditions are investigated numerically. The interaction between the highly nonlinear free surface flow and a large number of small stiffeners is modeled based on the Moving Particle Semi-implicit method. 2D models of a rectangular clean tank and tanks with small sidewalls or bottom stiffeners are considered. For filling ratios ranging from 5% to 20%, harmonic angular motions with periods around the analytical sloshing resonant ones are applied. Simulation snapshots and computed pressure time series, pressure variation, wave run-up, maximum fluid velocity, and kinetic energy were provided to clarify the complex interaction between the small baffles and the shallow free surface flow. As a result, except for the tanks with bottom stiffeners in shallow liquid conditions, in which the response under actual resonant frequency should be considered, the response computed using the clean tank excited by its resonant period can be adopted as a conservative estimation for the sloshing loads of actual tanks with small stiffeners.     

基于果蝇算法优化的移动机器人RBPF-SLAM研究

针对基于传统Rao-Blackwellized粒子滤波(Rao-Blackwellised Particle Filter,RBPF)算法的移动机器人在进行同时定位与地图构建(Simultaneous Location and Mapping,SLAM)时易发生粒子退化导致移动机器人位姿估计不准确以及地图一致性较差的问题,提出一种基于果蝇优化算法的RBPF-SLAM算法。该算法将果蝇种群觅食过程中果蝇具有的趋味特性引入RBPF算法,将粒子视为果蝇个体,粒子的适应度值作为空气中食物味道的浓度,利用果蝇优化算法的高寻优能力使粒子向高似然区域移动并不断迭代寻优,以优化粒子种群的整体分布。同时,在果蝇寻优后的新种群中引入自适应交叉变异操作,以增加种群多样性。根据粒子的适应度值确定交叉概率,对配对好的粒子进行自适应交叉操作,再根据变异概率对当前种群的最优粒子进行变异操作,选取适应度值更高的粒子作为当前最优解。采用指数函数步长公式更新粒子状态,增加寻优过程中的搜索距离,有效提高算法的收敛效率。基于ACES building和MIT Killian Court数据集的仿真实验以及移动机器人实机测试结...     

上海轨道交通03A01型车辆轴箱弹簧断裂原因分析

针对上海轨道交通03A01型列车15年架修阶段的轴箱弹簧发生疲劳断裂现象,采用化学元素分析、金相检验、硬度测试和断口扫描电镜等测试方法,综合分析了导致弹簧断裂失效的原因。运用磁粉检测识别检修阶段的弹簧表面缺陷,防止弹簧装车后发生断裂失效。     

基于改进LS-SVM算法的列车通信网络时延预测方法

由于通信网络诱导时延的存在会对列车牵引制动系统造成影响,因此对时延精准预测并实现补偿十分重要.提出了一种基于改进粒子群(PSO)算法优化的最小二乘法支持向量机(LS-SVM)算法对列车通信网络时延进行预测,搭建了列车网络控制系统半实物平台,使数据通过多功能车辆总线(MVB)进行传输,分别改变车辆控制单元(VCU)特征周...     

基于市场需求的高速铁路运输服务属性调整模型及算法

近几年,大城市间各种客运方式间的市场竞争越来越激烈,几种客运方式既存在合作关系,又存在博弈竞争关系。高速铁路运输企业必须根据旅客运输市场需求,合理设计所提供的运输服务属性,最大限度地吸引客流,最终才能赢得合理的企业效益。本文从高速铁路运输企业运营的经济效益和旅客出行方式选择两方面,建立高速铁路运输服务属性调整的双层规划模型,探讨应用粒子群优化算法求解,以期对高速铁路运输企业设计合理的运输服务水平提供理论依据,并将此模型及算法应用于武广高速铁路运输服务水平设计中,验证模型及求解方法的可行性。     

轴类件磁痕形成原因分析

文章通过对磁粉探伤报废的各型材质轴类件磁痕的分析,发现大部分磁痕都是由于夹杂物的存在导致磁粉聚集,部分磁痕是由于锻造裂纹引起.在保证工件尺寸的前提下,可以通过打磨或其他加工方式消除表面磁痕,但是不能避免在加工过程中由于磨削或拉伤裂纹形成新的磁痕.