公路债务风险分析系统的设计

分析了我国公路债务风险，提出了测度公路债务风险的系列指标，使用Borland C Builder5.0程序设计语言和Paradox数据库，设计了公路债务风险分析软件系统，提出了化解公路债务风险的对策。     

Extensive study on the design loads used for strength assessment of tanker and bulk carrier structures

ClassNK has undertaken wide-ranging basic research covering many aspects related to the safety of ship structures, including design loads, structural analysis, strength assessment of buckling, collapse, and fatigue, and rational corrosion margins to develop new design standards which have transparency and consistency. Among the wide-ranging basic research, this article summarizes the results of extensive work on the design loads used for strength assessments of tanker and bulk carrier structures. The main aim of the research was to develop practical estimation methods of design loads with rational technical backgrounds relating to the actual loads acting on the primary structural members of tankers and bulk carriers. During this study, we proposed the following methodology. Design sea states that closely resemble the actual sea states which are considered to be the most severe for hull structures. Find practical estimation methods for the design sea states by parametric studies using the results of series calculations on representative tankers and bulk carriers. Find practical estimation methods for design regular waves which will result in the same level of stresses as those induced in irregular waves under the design sea states. We also briefly introduced some practical estimation methods for the design loads, such as ship motions, accelerations, hull-girder bending moments, and hydrodynamic pressures that are induced under design regular waves. The findings in this study have been summarized and implemented in the new design standards for tanker and bulk carrier structures.Updated from the Japanese original which won the 2003 SNAJ prize (J Soc Nav Archit Jpn 2002; 191:195–207; 2002; 191:208–220; and 2002; 192:723–733)     

An integrated assessment of alternative land-based passenger transport policies: A case study in Tenerife

Over recent decades, there have been numerous cases of land-based transport policies that have lacked clear and coherent strategies. This has not only hampered the resolution of issues like road congestion, but has also created new ones (e.g. strong social opposition to new train infrastructures). The absence of such strategies highlights the need for long-term transport policies with a wider vision of the issues, since land-based transport cannot be considered from just a technical perspective.The main objective of this article is to implement a participatory integrated approach to facilitate the understanding of land-based passenger transport governance issues on Tenerife, in the Canary Islands. Relevant policy issues and alternatives are identified by the stakeholders involved. The inclusion of stakeholders in the assessment process is crucial to frame transport governance issues appropriately and to define and assess plausible policy alternatives. This assessment process even included a final step of validation of the results by stakeholders to foster discussion among them about transport issues and policy alternatives.Finally, due to the obstructive role played by some stakeholders in influencing past transport policies, an analysis of possible coalitions among stakeholders is also discussed.     

Estimating economic losses of industry clusters due to port disruptions

Seaport operations are highly important for industries which rely heavily on imports and exports. A reliable evaluation of port risks is essential to govern the normal running of seaborne transportation and thus the industrial economies. The occurrence of a breakdown in the trade facilitators, such as ports, will disrupt the smooth flow of supply chains for the industries. The estimation of the economic loss for an industry when a port gets disrupted is a challenging task as the relationship between the port and industry clusters is complex. This study aims to develop a systematic framework for performing economic loss estimation of industry clusters due to port disruptions. The whole risk assessment is split into three stages focusing on the establishment of a network flow model, economic estimations and evaluating risk mitigation strategies. The proposed idea is demonstrated by a case study on Shenzhen port and its related manufacturing industries. A dynamic inventory control strategy used by manufacturers is found to be beneficial for mitigating port disruption risks.     

基于盲数理论的我国海上战略通道安全风险评价

对我国海上战略通道进行安全风险评价是保障海上通道安全的重要环节。由于海上战略通道的安全风险具有多种不确定性，故可运用盲数理论建立我国海上战略通道安全风险等级评价的盲数模型。通过专家打分的方法对影响因素进行未确知测度，构造判断矩阵获得影响因素的权重，从而得到模型的综合未确知测度，根据既定的评价准则获得海上通道的安全风险级别。文中对我国重要的海上通道马六甲海峡进行了安全风险评价，其评价结果为：马六甲海峡的安全级别为较危险级别，验证了该盲数模型的有效性。     

台风的预防预控

防抗台风是海事部门的重点工作之一，只有采取有效的针对性措施才能最大限度地减小损失。     

海外工程风险管理初探

在竞争日益激烈的海外工程市场中,培养管理者的风险应对意识,提高风险管理水平,是增强国际竞争力的重要环节.文章在对海外工程风险进行分类总结的基础上,结合印尼和新加坡两地工程的实战经验,对海外工程风险管理方法进行初步探索,总结了一些有效的风险管理措施,可供以后类似工程参考.     

基于风险网络的轨道交通车辆风险评价

针对轨道交通车辆系统的风险网络和关键部件风险评价开展研究，以系统部件和部件连接关系作为节点和边，建立了风险网络模型，分析了节点固有风险的影响因素和计算方法.根据节点之间故障传播概率得到边的作用强度和路径风险.对节点固有风险和路径风险进行分析，得到节点综合风险，并通过幂法对节点综合风险进行求解，从而识别部件对系统的影响程度.以转向架系统为例进行综合风险计算，结果表明：部件固有风险大小不能完全决定综合风险大小，还与部件连接关系和作用强度相关；与实际经验得出的关键部件综合风险排序对比，利用本文方法得到的关键部件排序一致性与其他方法相比有明显提升.     

铁路隧道震害评估中标度法及权重值的确定研究

基于层次分析法原理,建立了铁路隧道结构构造和常见震害形式的层次模型,通过采用1-9标度法、9/9-9/1分数标度法、10/10-18/2分数标度法、20/2~28/2指数标度法、90/8~98/8指数标度法等5种方法分别构建判断矩阵,借助Matlab软件求最大特征值λmax后,运用计算一致性指标(CI)和平均随机一致性指标(RI),得出计算一致性比例CR指标值,对5种常用权重值计算方法的适用性进行检验。研究表明:在铁路隧道地震灾害损失定量评估时,采用9/9~9/1分数标度法计算权重值较为快速、准确、合理、便捷,可作为铁路隧道灾害定量损失评估权重值的计算依据。     

旧路改造期间运营安全评价

旧路改造期间不断交施工,交通量较大,应对其运营安全预先分析评价。通过对沿线设施预先危险性分析可知,危险因素等级均为Ⅱ级,并提出防范措施。通过对改建期运营预先危险性分析可知,危险因素中车辆伤害、起重伤害等级为Ⅲ级,对可能造成人员重大伤亡及设施严重破坏的灾难性事故,应立即采取防范对策。