组合预测在港口吞吐量预测中的应用研究

以某港口1996—2002年吞吐量为原始数据,按照“误差平方和最小”的准则,把一元线性回归模型和GM(1,1)模型组合起来,对某港口2004—2008年的吞吐量进行了组合预测。     

铁路线路三维设计模型的建立方法研究

介绍了既有线路三维模型的建立理论及实现方法．通过分析它们存在的困难和不 足，提出了一种利用航测或外业勘测地形数据，在微机上建立设计线行经地区的三维空间的地形模型；利用横断面数据建立线路三维模型，通过修改地形模型达到地形上显示三维线路模型的一种方法．     

基于故障树的船用核动力装置维修性建模研究

结合船用核动力装置的特点,阐述了建立基于故障树维修性模型的方法和流程.以建立故障树为基础,建立了关于船用堆余热排出系统基于故障树的维修性模型,对其进行定量分析得到系统修复性维修时间.该方法直接利用可靠性分析中的故障树建立模型,节省了建模强度,计算结果由可靠性数据支持,克服了以往定量分析中维修性数据不足的缺点.     

Virtual test rig to improve the design and optimisation process of the vehicle steering and suspension systems

A virtual test rig is presented using a three-dimensional model of the elasto-kinematic behaviour of a vehicle. A general approach is put forward to determine the three-dimensional position of the body and the main parameters which influence the handling of the vehicle. For the design process, the variable input data are the longitudinal and lateral acceleration and the curve radius, which are defined by the user as a design goal. For the optimisation process, once the vehicle has been built, the variable input data are the travel of the four struts and the steering wheel angle, which is obtained through monitoring the vehicle. The virtual test rig has been applied to a standard vehicle and the validity of the results has been proven.     

A passenger car driver model for higher lateral accelerations

Due to increasing demands for time and cost efficient vehicle and driver assistant systems development, numerical simulation of closed-loop manoeuvres becomes increasingly important. Thus, the driver has to be considered in the modelling. On the basis of a two-layer approach to model a driver's steering behaviour, the field of application is extended to higher lateral accelerations in this study. An analytical method to determine the driver parameters is presented, which is based on the two-wheel vehicle model. The simulation results are determined using a full vehicle model including all essential nonlinearities. Standard manoeuvres in the nonlinear range of vehicle handling behaviour are performed. A cornering manoeuvre is chosen to show the characteristics of the proposed driver model.     

斯太尔汽车双前轴转向机构分析及其应用

本文在对斯太尔重型汽车的双轴转向传动机构进行分析的基础上建立了数学模型,研究了各部分的传动过程,并采用MATLAB语言编写了转向传动机构分析程序,对转向轴内外轮之间,前后轮间的转角匹配,以及最小转弯半径的匹配关系进行了优化。     

How well a single-track linear model captures the lateral dynamics of long combination vehicles

ABSTRACT

The effect of centre-of-gravity heights on the high-speed performance measures of long combination vehicles including truck with double centre-axle trailers, Nordic, and A-double combination vehicles is investigated. The high fidelity three-dimensional models, used in this research, are validated against physical test data. These models are often accurate in terms of the actual dynamic behaviours of the vehicle. On the other hand, the simple yaw-plane single-track models with linear tires require less number of vehicle parameters. In this paper, it is investigated how accurate the estimations of performance measures are at high forward speeds by such single-track linear (STL) models. The influence of load height is especially studied. The high-speed performance-based standard or PBS measures considered are rearward amplifications of both lateral acceleration and yaw velocity; lateral load transfer; yaw damping and high-speed transient offtracking. The results show that tire relaxation has a large effect and it is rather easy to add to an STL model, so it is assumed to be modelled in STL. With realistically high payload and a required accuracy of PBS measures of approximately 10%, only the accuracy of rearward amplification of yaw velocity calculated by the frequency response is fulfilled by the STL. With low payload, the same statement is valid, but with around 5% in required accuracy. The roll dynamics effects are more important than the tire non-linearities.     

电磁环境船模预测技术的误差分析研究

基于缩比船模原理,从模型限制误差、方法误差和问题本身的误差等方面分析电磁环境船模预测技术的主要误差源,并在此基础上分别论述上述误差源对电磁环境预测精度产生的影响.可以有针对性地采取相应措施控制误差,以更好地获取逼近于实船的电磁环境分布特性.     

分段施工PC梁桥线形的分形预测方法

充分考虑到分段施工PC梁桥施工阶段线形变化的非线形,复杂性和随机性,提出一种基于分形理论的节段线形预测方法。采用滚动选取预测样本降低原始误差累计的方法,建立了节段施工线形预测理论模型。将此模型应用于黄河大桥悬臂施工线形预测控制中,按节段施工周期依次预测下一节段的线形指标,结果证实了分段施工PC梁桥线形变化的分形特征,与实测和理论值相比,预测值具有较高的工程精度。     

Application of time-variant predictive control to modelling driver steering skill

The paper addresses the need for improved mathematical models of human steering control. A multiple-model structure for a driver's internal model of a nonlinear vehicle is proposed. The multiple-model structure potentially offers a straightforward way to represent a range of driver expertise. The internal model is combined with a model predictive steering controller. The controller generates a steering command through the minimisation of a cost function involving vehicle path error. A study of the controller performance during an aggressive, nonlinear steering manoeuvre is provided. Analysis of the controller performance reveals a reduction in the closed-loop controller bandwidth with increasing tyre saturation and fixed controller gains. A parameter study demonstrates that increasing the multiple-model density, increasing the weights on the path error, and increasing the controller knowledge range all improved the path following accuracy of the controller.