用Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害敏感性区划图的方法研究

在GIS环境下应用Logistics回归模型编制地质灾害区划图。针对网格的生成、致灾因子的选择、不重合边界等问题,运用GIS的空间分析功能和SPSS的统计功能,消除了这些问题对滑坡灾害区划图的准确度的影响。结合贵州省的实际,根据历史灾害的分布情况,比较不同方法编制的滑坡灾害敏感性区划图,确定最优编制方法。对基于Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害敏感性区划图提出若干指导性建议,丰富和完善了Logistic回归模型编制滑坡灾害区划图方法体系。     

公路岩质边坡稳定性的工程地质分析

岩质边坡稳定性问题对公路工程建设的决策、造价和工期具有重要的影响和作用;同时,它还是公路边坡工程设计与施工的重要依据条件之一。针对漳龙高速公路XX段岩质边坡的稳定性问题,从边坡的地形地貌特征、岩石类型与特征、岩体结构类型与特性、结构面发育度与优势面状态等多方面因素,并采用赤平极射投影法;对该段岩质边坡的稳定性进行定性的工程地质分析。     

基于AR模型的并靠两船相对运动预报研究

根据两船相对运动的特点,利用两船模相对运动的测量数据,运用基于自回归模型的时间序列分析法,建立了两船相对运动的数学模型,并给出了运动姿态的预报值.通过本方法的研究,可以得到满意的相对运动预报精度,为两船补给波浪、补偿装置的开发打下了理论基础.     

基于信令数据的出行强度影响因素分析模型

为探究城市交通出行强度影响因素及不同因素的影响程度，本文从土地利用与交通基础设施建设两方面出发，分析包括土地利用混合指数，职住混合率熵指数，公共交通站点 500 m覆盖率，路网可达性等17个指标与出行强度的相关关系；基于相关系数和拟合优度分析，提取7个与出行强度强相关指标，基于所识别指标构建北京市中心城区出行强度多元回归模型.模型结果表明，职住混合率熵指数对出行强度的影响最为显著，公共交通站点覆盖率对出行强度的影响比道路网密度和可达性更为明显.此外，给出单一土地利用/交通基础设施指标对出行强度拟合结果的离群特征分析方法，用于评估不同区域基础设施供给与交通出行需求之间的平衡关系.     

The effects of planned and unplanned transfers on public transport users' perception of transfer routes

Many authorities are investing in new infrastructure to improve the quality of public transport (PT) services in the hope to increase mode switch from cars. The goal is to provide users with an integrated multimodal PT network by facilitating transfers. There exists a lack in the clarity of the attributes which defines a planned transfer and the effects of planned transfers on users' willingness to use routes with transfers. The present study provides approximate effects of ‘planned’ and ‘unplanned’ transfers on PT users' decisions to use transfer routes. The study focuses on two attributes of ‘planned’ transfers, integrated physical connection of transfers and information integration. A user preference survey was undertaken in Auckland, New Zealand. Analysis of the results shows that physical integration is more important than information integration for current PT users. Results also suggest that information integration has a greater influence on users of transfer services which are more closely aligned to being ‘unplanned’.     

Subjective-utility travel time budget modeling in the stochastic traffic network assignment

ABSTRACT

In this article, we propose a new model called subjective-utility travel time budget (SU-TTB) model to capture travelers' risk-averse route choices. In the travel time budget (TTB) and mean-excess travel time (METT) model, a predefined confidence level is needed to capture the risk-aversion in route choice. Due to the day-to-day route travel time variations, the exact confidence level is hard to be predicted. With the SU-TTB model, we assume travelers' confidence level belongs to an interval that they may comply with in the route choice. The two main components of SU-TTB are the utility function and the TTB model. We can show that the SU-TTB can be reduced to the TTB and METT model with proper utility function for the confidence levels. We can also prove its equivalence with our recently proposed nonlinear-expectation route travel time (NERTT) model in some cases and give some new interpretation on the NERTT with this equivalence. Finally, we formulate the SU-TTB model as a variational inequality (VI) problem to model the risk-averse user equilibrium (RAUE), termed as generalized RAUE (GRAUE). The GRAUE is solved via a heuristic gradient projection algorithm, and the model and solution algorithm are demonstrated with the Braess's traffic network and the Nguyen and Dupuis's traffic network.     

圆形隧道施工对不同深度地层沉降影响的模型试验研究

为了预测圆形隧道施工引起地表以下不同埋深地层沉降特征,首先,通过理论推导不同地层最大沉降位移与沉降槽宽度系数的函数关系;然后,建立包括试验台架、地层模型、圆形隧道开挖模型以及测量地层变形装置的平面应变模型试验系统。通过理论解析和模型试验可知:1)地表以下地层的最大沉降位移与沉降槽宽度系数成反比;2)不同深度地层的沉降位移随着地层埋深的增加而增大,且地表以下地层沉降槽曲线仍然符合正态分布;3)通过对模型试验数据进行回归分析,得到黏土地表以下不同深度地层沉降槽宽度系数的计算公式,从而为预测圆形隧道施工地表以下不同深度地层竖向位移提供了一种可靠的计算方法。     

Power network parameter estimation method based on data mining technology

The parameter values which actually change with the circumstances, weather and load level etc.produce great effect to the result of state estimation. A new parameter estimation method based on data mining technology was proposed. The clustering method was used to classify the historical data in supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) database as several types. The data processing technology was impliedto treat the isolated point, missing data and yawp data in samples for classified groups. The measurement data which belong to each classification were introduced to the linear regression equation in order to gain the regression coefficient and actual parameters by the least square method. A practical system demonstrates the high correctness, reliability and strong practicability of the proposed method.     

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海上运输关键节点安全评价研究是保障我国海上运输通道安全的重要环节,为科学全面评价我国海上运输关键节点的安全状况,本文建立评价指标体系,引入投影寻踪方法构建安全评价模型,通过遗传算法求解,对关键节点的安全状况进行评价,并挖掘相关海峡的主要安全威胁。评价结果表明,涉及我国重要物资如石油、集装箱运输的霍尔木兹海峡、马六甲海峡、曼德海峡及苏伊士运河的安全水平相对较低,而且印尼地区的龙目海峡、巽他海峡及望加锡海峡的安全状况也相对较差。评价结果为我国制定保障海上运输安全措施及做出相关管理决策提供科学依据,对提高我国海上运输安全性与可靠性具有重要意义。