城市轨道交通客流高峰持续时间预测方法

分析了国内城市轨道交通运营管理的发展现状,总结了关于客流高峰持续时间现有的研究方法,通过对比分析,选择回归分析作为城市轨道交通客流持续时间预测模型。分析和定义了城市轨道交通客流高峰事件的概念,探讨了客流高峰事件的影响因素,阐述了回归分析模型的理论基础和求解方法。以南京地铁1号线的数据作为原始数据并进行建模,在此基础上验证研究方法的可行性。     

Active Contours and Mumford-Shah Segmentation Based on Level Sets

IntroductionThe basic idea in active contour models orsnakes is to evolve a curve,subject to constraintsfrom a given image,in order to detect objects inthat image.For instance,starting with a curvearound the object to be detected,the curve movestoward its interior normal and has to stop on theboundary of the object.LetΩ be a bounded open subset of R2 ,with Ω its boundary. Let u0 ∶Ω→ R be a given image,and C( s)∶ [0 ,1 ]→ R2 be a parameterized curve. Inthe classical snakes and active…     

BIFURCATIONS AND CHAOS CONTROL IN TCP-RED SYSTEM

Internet is heterogeneous in nature,and ex-tremely wide variations in parametric perturbationlead to a very rich world of dynamical behaviorsranging from s mooth,stable operation to rathercomplicated irregular patterns.In[1],the occur-rence of chaotic behavior in TCP has been reportedfor the first ti me.Since the seminal work of Mathisand Floyd[2-3],there have been increasing interestsin the dynamical characteristics of Internet.In theprevious work,TCP congestion control algorithmplus RED…     

产业结构在货运量预测中的应用研究

实践证明,利用各产业比例结构与单位GDP产生的公路货运量进行回归分析,得到规划年单位GDP产生公路货运量,以及利用规划人口、人均GDP等规划数据计算规划年公路货运量,所得预测结果比较理想.     

Floating Car Data Based Nonparametric Regression Model for Short-Term Travel Speed Prediction

A K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based nonparametric regression model was proposed to predict travel speed for Beijing expressway. By using the historical traffic data collected from the detectors in Beijing expressways, a specically designed database was developed via the processes including data filtering, wavelet analysis and clustering. The relativity based weighted Euclidean distance was used as the distance metric to identify the K groups of nearest data series. Then, a K-NN nonparametric regression model was built to predict the average travel speeds up to 6 min into the future. Several randomly selected travel speed data series, collected from the floating car data (FCD) system, were used to validate the model. The results indicate that using the FCD, the model can predict average travel speeds with an accuracy of above 90%, and hence is feasible and effective.     

石龙山隧道新奥法施工围岩变形监测研究

新奥法是目前广为采用的隧道动态监测施工技术。以石龙山隧道施工监测为例,详细说明了该技术在隧道施工中对围岩位移及受力变化的监控实施程序,并根据量测数据的分析处理对支护结构进行调整。实施结果表明,此方法能有效控制围岩的稳定性,节省支护费用,确保施工安全。     

一种测试粘土路基弹性模量的简易方法

路基土弹性模量是道路工程中一个很重要的参数,其值在现阶段一般用重复荷载三轴试验测定,既昂贵又耗时.文中介绍了一种新的测试方法——DCP测试法,只要测出DCPI值便可测试出路基的弹性模量.同时,通过试验结果的分析,不但找出了影响DCPI值和弹性模量的因素,而且还证明了该方法在实际工程中是切实可行的.DCP试验作为一种新的原位测试土工试验方法,具有简单、快捷和经济等特点.     

等参局部平均随机场的随机有限元分析

本文提出了一种正交化等参局部平均的随机场模型,并给出了分析该随机场模型的随机有限元列式。算例表明,本文的方法具有较高的计算精度,且输入数据较少。     

SPSS在拱桥轴线变形观测回归拟合中应用

根据实测获取的桥拱轴线的观测数据,通过应用SPSS程序软件,对桥拱轴线的设计线形进行了拟合,确定了其有关参数和理论数据,使桥梁及其他建筑物的曲线回归、变形分析和精度评定更规律化简单化和高效率,为旧危建筑加固维护,新建筑物施工质量评价,提供了翔实可靠的依据.     

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运用系统工程理论方法，针对目前我国公路建设项目后评价工作中所面临的社会经济效益定量评价这一难题，提出当统计数据缺乏的情况下选择、运用灰色预测模型对指标进行定量分析、预测的新思路；以厦门海沧公路大桥项目为背景，结合定性分析，采用灰色系统理论中的缓冲算子公理，建立了GM(1,1)模型和灰色线性回归组合模型对数据进行拟合和预测，取得了满意的结果.